According to a YouGov poll in tomorrow’s People (reported by the paper’s political editor, Nigel Nelson, on Twitter): “1% more people would rather have G.Brown than D.Cameron round for Christmas dinner.” There’s better news elsewhere in the poll for the Tories: the gap between them and Labour is back in double digits. It’s the Tories on 40 percent, Labour on 28, and the Lib Dems on 18.
Sounds like the Tories are going to go policy-heavy in the New Year. According to this morning’s Times, Team Cameron are going to publish a “draft election manifesto” around 4 January, which will – as James revealed in his political column this week – set up a “policy-a-day blitz” throughout the rest of the month. There will also be a separate policy release “showcasing the party’s commitment to the NHS”. The thinking is that all this will regain some momentum for the party, as well as answering the charge that the Tory operation lacks substance. Question is: will it work? Well, we’ve often called for more detail from the Tory
Ok, so identifying the heroes of the New Labour era may not sit well with CoffeeHousers – but I’d still recommend you read through the latest Bagehot column in the Economist, which does just that. It identifies five figures from the past 12 years who have “done the state and country some serious and lasting service,” and whose “virtues [are] not be clouded or cancelled by grave mistakes or misdemeanours”. They are: Lord Adonis, Donald Dewar, Lord Mandelson, Sir William Macpherson and Robin Cook. James Purnell, Alistair Darling and, strikingly, Bill Clinton finish in the runners-up list. You can debate the merits and demerits of those names all day long,
The Guardian’s Seumas Milne condemns the BA strike judgement as ‘blatantly political’. He writes: ‘Mrs Justice Cox has made a transparently political decision to skew the balance of power still further in favour of BA’s recklessly incompetent management.’ That, as Mrs Thatcher would say, is poppycock. Mrs Justice Cox’s decision was informed by law, not ideology. Unite had balloted ineligible members, which is illegal. That the result of the ballot would not have changed is immaterial, Unite broke the law. In this instance, the legal decision will enable a sensible business plan time to develop. After years of procrastination and painting tail wings, the BA board is realistic about the
Would cutting spending “risk the recovery?” This claim is, literally, Gordon Brown’s re-election manifesto. He is hoping that the Tories haven’t learned to use numbers as weapons – so any economic message he has will not be effectively countered. In fact, his claim is very easily exposed as being bogus by a simple look at recent British economic history. Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day shows that economic growth in the past two recessions (white line) was not at all threatened by fiscal tightening (green graph). Even Goldman Sachs – which is acquiring a reputation as the Labour Party’s house broker – is conceding the central point. I hope Bloomberg won’t
Well, Nick Clegg’s reponse to the Labour chief whip’s Christmas card made me smile: “Both myself and Nick Brown have good reason to be embarrassed. I posed for pictures in ridiculous fancy dress 20 years ago – and he is an MP for the Labour Party.” Hat-tip for the picture: the FT’s Jim Pickard
Expenses, expenses, expenses. This morning’s Telegraph splashes with the news that the junior culture minister Sion Simon paid over £40,000 in taxpayers’ cash to his sister. How so? Well, he rented a London flat from her between 2004 and 2008, and claimed against it as his “second home”. Problem is, the practice of renting a property from a family member at taxpayers’ expense was banned in 2006. Simon has since said he’ll pay back the money that he “inadvertently” claimed. Aside from the fact that it’s yet another example of, at best, gross error on a politician’s part, two other details stand out. First, as the Telegraph puts it, “Mr
Where the Gilt market goes in coming months is going to be very important for the UK economy and politics. There is little history of countries being able to sustain deficits of the UK’s magnitude, for very long, without serious market problems. At the moment, we’re getting by thanks the sticking plaster approach of quantitative easing. The Bank of England has purchased £186bn of gilts so far this year, almost perfectly matching the £179bn the Debt Management Office has needed to sell so far. As long as the Bank is willing to support the market with a fast-rolling printing press, government funding at attractive rates is assured. However, the end
James Crabtree, a Labour SPAD turned managing editor of Prospect, has a good piece in the new Prospect about how the first step to recovery for Labour after the next election, assuming they lose, will be saying sorry. Crabtree argues that even if the Tory majority is small, Labour would be ill-advised to move straight into oppositional mode, attacking every Tory cut. Rather, he argues, the party needs to understand that its “brand is now nearly as contaminated as the Tories before it.” One of the challenges for the Tories should they win the next election will be bringing home to the public just what an appalling state Labour
A lot of pixels have been expended on Labour’s new class war and soak-the-rich strategies, so it’s worth highlighting the in-a-nutshell argument which Tom Harris deploys against them on his blog: “Rather than using opinion polls as a basis on which to judge the wisdom of class politics, let’s take a rather different measure: general election results. In 1979, 1983, 1987 and 1992, Labour promised tax increases (but only for the wealthy) and got hammered. In 1997, 2001 and 2005, we pledged not to increase the basic or higher rates of tax. And golly! Look what happened!” Ok, correlation and cause aren’t necessarily the same thing. But there’s a strong
Sir John Chilcot’s Iraq inquiry has begun honing in on failures of US and British post-conflict planning. As General Sir Frederick Viggers told the inquiry, problems arose from “not having defined the ends, ways and means of how we were going to deliver this phase of the campaign.” None of this is particularly new. As further evidence is provided to the inquiry, it will become even clearer how unprepared the British state – the Government, civil service and military – were for the task at hand, and how soldiers, diplomats and development workers were expected to deliver near-miracles with limited resources, limited backing, limited security and limited public support. I
Today the TaxPayers’ Alliance is releasing a new report which sets out the huge and excessive burden that green taxes impose on families and business across the UK. At the moment, 14 percent of domestic bill costs are the result of climate change policies. Increasing the price of energy hits the poor and elderly hardest – which, in turn, increases poverty and benefit dependency. At the same time, 21 percent of industrial electricity bills are the result of climate change policies. If we want to make our economy less dependent on financial services, driving up a major part of many manufacturing firms’ costs isn’t the way to do it. Despite
I need a new radio for Christmas. Whilst listening to Dr. Sir Liam Donaldson tell the Today programme that parents should not offer their fifteen year old offspring alcohol, my pocket-radio had an altercation with a wall. The soon to be retiring chief medical officer said: “The more they get a taste for it, the more likely they are to be heavy drinking adults or binge drinkers later in childhood.” This latest soothsaying counts among Sir Liam’s other alcohol-related triumphs; he also gave us the inscrutable phenomenon of “passive drinking” – I don’t know about you but this guy makes me drink actively. Continental Europe has its fair share of
So MPs have until the end of today to declare whether they’re appealing against Sir Thomas Legg’s request that they repay certain expenses claims. Three have already done just that, one from each of the main parties: Jeremy Browne, Frank Cook and Bernard Jenkin. You imagine that more may follow throughout the day, especially given the rumblings that the Legg review contained a fair few errors. Now, it’s only fair that MPs have a right of appeal – but you still wonder what it will mean for the expenses saga more generally. From the public’s perspective, a swathe of appeals could look like MPs resisting reform. From Parliament’s perspective, it
If PMQs today showed anything, it’s just how eager the Tories’ opponents are to bring up the issue of Lord Ashcroft. Vince Cable set the ball rolling by referring to the Tory deputy chairman as a “non dom”, and Harriet Harman gleefully followed up by firing questions in William Hague’s direction. She was cut off – and rightly so – by John Bercow. But the insinuations about the Lord and his tax status had already been made. Now, you could say that this is pretty low stuff from Labour and the Lib Dems. After all, David Cameron pledged earlier this week to legislate so that all MPs and peers are
Iain Martin has a thought-provoking post up about how the Tories lack an attack-dog. Certainly, the Tories lack a shadow Minister for the Today Programme, someone who can be relied to go on when it is a bad morning for the party and deal robustly with a tough interview. This is a position the Tories will need to fill before the campaign gets under way. As Iain says, Chris Grayling was at one point used as the party’s attack dog. But this has come to overly define his political persona and he hasn’t really recovered from his Wire speech and a lacklustre conference, although his recent more thoughtful speeches on
Greg Mankiw is one of the best academic economists out there and having been chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors has a good sense of how to turn theory into policy. His column last weekend in The New York Times is essential reading for anyone wondering about how Britain can avoid a double dip recession. In it, Mankiw summarises the recent academic evidence which shows that cutting business and income taxes is a more effective form of stimulus than increasing spending. The challenge for Osborne in drawing up his first Budget, if the Tories win, will be how to foster a private sector stimulus for the economy. Without that
The inflation surge is now upon us. The CPI rate again “surprised” to the upside – Britain is the only major economy in the world to have inflation doing this. But given that the Bank of England’s printing presses have been working overtime to fund a fiscally irresponsible government then little wonder things are different here. To understand just how unusual the UK situation is, consider the below graph: despite suffering the longest recession in G20, we have one of highest rates of inflation in the developed world. The next few months will see this push higher, potentially reaching 4 percent in March and busting the 2 percent target. Without
Our Christmas double edition is out today, and is choc full of writers to keep y’all entertained over the festive season. Someone who certainly entertained me is Lord Mandelson. I interviewed him just after Charles Moore’s disclosures about the shooting party: he didn’t shoot, he says, but was at a large dinner chez Rothschild where Saif al-Gaddafi was present. What’s Gaddafi like, I asked? Is he all right kind of chap? PM: “I don’t regard him as an alright chap or a bad chap, I mean how can you judge?” FN: “I thought you knew him a little bit.” PM: “I’ve met the chap three times, once in a meeting
Unlike Ben Brogan and Iain Martin, I don’t have a vested interest: British Airways weren’t going to be flying me anywhere this Christmas. Having spent days roasting on the aprons of the world, I’ve ceased to entertain the notion that BA is capable of flying me anywhere. I suspect the million or so who face the prospect of the grimmest ever escape to the sun will develop a similar antipathy. Cooked up by Len McCluskey, who cut his teeth with that doyen militancy, Derek Hatton, this strike has tragedy written all over it. As Billy Hayes and the posties proved, the unions rarely realise their unshakeable terms and conditions these