Uk politics

Parliament returns tomorrow – without 47 of the people who were MPs just a few weeks ago. Some, like those standing as independents, had a pretty good hunch that they’d be booted out by the electorate on Thursday. Others had less notice, and realised only as the campaign wore on that their constituencies, many of which had been solidly Labour for decades, were turning away from them. Many of them will be in Westminster in the next few days to clear out their offices and make their staff redundant. You can usually tell the difference between a re-elected MP and one of their colleagues who lost as you watch them

‘If Darlington high street isn’t visibly better in four years’ time, we’ll be in trouble’, one of Boris Johnson’s confidants told me the other day. Boris Johnson and his team are, as I say in The Sun this morning, acutely away that if they are going to make Thursday night’s electoral shift permanent then they are going to have to deliver for those places that swung to the Tories in this election. Part of Boris Johnson’s answer will be improving the infrastructure serving these places. In his interview with The Spectator during the campaign, he indicated that he was going to rip up the Treasury’s rules on capital spending to

Labour’s defeat is so terrible that it provides the kind of creative destruction that could save the party. It will be extremely difficult for the Corbynites to argue with much authority that one more push or slightly nicer newspapers would have got them over the line when the party hasn’t had a result this bad since 1935. But does the failure of Jeremy Corbyn necessarily mean that the ‘moderates’ in the party are going to be able to rescue it? In 2015, centre-left Labour MPs were confident that the members were so bruised by what they’d heard on the doorstep that they would happily elect a leader who took the

The two stand-out moments of the campaign? 1) Jeremy Corbyn refusing to say sorry to the Jewish community, in Andrew Neil’s BBC interview, for the hurt and anxiety he caused by failing for years to eliminate anti-Semitism from the Labour party. 2) Boris Johnson’s refusal to look at a picture of a four-year-old with suspected pneumonia lying on the floor of Leeds General Infirmary, which ITV News’ Joe Pike tried to show him on his phone, and then Johnson’s pocketing of Pike’s phone. Each leader showed a wilful refusal to take personal responsibility for the consequences of their respective party’s actions. Both looked, to many, self-righteous and untrustworthy. Good luck

When the first YouGov MRP poll of the election campaign was published last month, it was a cause of anxiety in Conservative Campaign Headquarters. The projection of a Tory majority of 68 was seen as overly optimistic – and there were concerns that it could lead to complacency in the polling booth. The second – and final – YouGov MRP poll of the election campaign does not carry the same baggage. With two days to go until polling day, it now suggests the Tories are on course for a small majority of 28. Were the election held tomorrow, YouGov forecasts that the Conservatives would win 339 seats with Labour on

John McDonnell was insisting this morning that Labour was going to win a majority, but just in case, insiders are suggesting that the Shadow Chancellor is planning to take over as interim leader if Jeremy Corbyn resigns after a general election defeat. McDonnell has long championed Rebecca Long-Bailey as a future leader, and there is speculation that he could install her as his shadow chancellor in order to boost her credentials. This explains why those around Corbyn were so keen to try to abolish Tom Watson as deputy leader in September. They tried to force a rule change at the party’s ruling National Executive Committee meeting which would scrap the

Believe it or not, there was yet another televised election debate tonight, this time on Channel 4, called the ‘Everything But Brexit’ debate. The Tories had refused to take part, and while their decision will have been partly down to their ongoing battle with the broadcaster, which they have accused of being biased, they will also have viewed tonight’s programme as an opportunity for them to make their central election pitch without even turning up. This debate worked in the Conservatives’ favour because it was chaotic, with the representatives of the five parties who did turn up constantly talking and even shouting over each other and the presenter Cathy Newman.

There are, as I say in the Sun this morning, two possible outcomes to this election: a Tory majority or a hung parliament. The seats where Labour are now concentrating their resources show that they don’t think they can win outright. Instead, their hopes rest on stopping Boris Johnson from getting to 326 seats. Right now, the Tories are on course for a majority. I understand that their own internal numbers indicate a working majority. But these margins are very fine, and victory could slip away if voters don’t turn out. If Boris Johnson does win a majority next week, it will be because he has presented himself as change.