Tory leadership

On Friday in the Spectator’s Coffee House podcast I suggested Michael Gove should be installed as a caretaker leader until June. I believe this is our best chance — perhaps our only chance — of honouring the result of the referendum. To be clear, I’m a passionate Brexiter and would like as clean a break with Brussels as possible. I want out of the Customs Union and out of the Single Market. If I was an MP, I’d be a member of the ERG. The disastrous course of the Brexit negotiations has made me more anxious to leave, not less. The fact that so many MPs and senior civil servants have

Theresa May has survived the vote, but her authority is weakened still further. More than a third of Tory MPs have voted against her and this is after she pledged not to fight the next election and to get legally enforceable changes to the backstop. If May had kept the number of those voting against her below 100, it would have been a good result for her. If she had kept it to below 80, it would have strengthened her position considerably. But anything over 105 was always going to be tricky for her as that meant a 1/3rd of her MPs didn’t have confidence in her. This became truer

Key Cabinet Ministers are urging Theresa May to avoid a vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday night. I report in The Sun this morning that they fear that if it goes ahead, the government will lose by a margin so large that it could bring the whole thing crashing down. One Secretary of State tells me that it would be ‘group suicide’ to press ahead with the vote. Number 10 say that no decision on whether to find a way to avoid the vote has been taken yet; senior figures there say that decision will not be taken until Monday. But they do admit that they are making little

Oh dear. Anyone who harbours serious hopes of becoming the next Conservative Prime Minister – or perhaps Opposition leader at this rate – knows that the first thing they must do is not make their ambitions known. This is why the main contenders are at pains to seem loyal to Theresa May. So, spare a thought for Amber Rudd at last night’s Centre for Policy Studies ‘New Generation’ launch. The Home Secretary gave the keynote speech at the launch of a campaign which aims to provide ‘intellectual rescue’ to the Tories and remake the arguments for Conservative principles by giving a voice to younger MPs in the party. However, before

The moment Philip May helped his wife from the stage after her conference speech, it became clear that it is only a matter of when, not if, her leadership of the Conservative Party and occupancy of No.10 comes to an end. What happens next? Who knows, but if you understand the rules, it is just possible a sequence of events has started which will ultimately lead to hundreds of thousands of people participating in a three month election process for a new leader. It might even result in a surprising outcome. In other words, a relatively unknown newer MP, such as Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Walden); or Bim Afolami (Hitchin and

Even loyal Cabinet Minister admit that the Tories can’t go on like this for another 18 months. As I say in The Sun this morning, Theresa May needs to show that the situation is going to improve. I think there are three things that May needs to do. First, she needs to show that she is enjoying the job. Tory MPs are, genuinely, beginning to worry that May’s sense of duty is such that she’ll stay on even if she is being crushed by the burdens of office. Now, those who work for the Prime Minister in Number 10 are adamant that she is relishing the job and wants to

A new name is being mentioned in the Tory leadership discussions, Mark Harper. As I say in the Sun today, the former chief whip is being touted as a possible successor to Theresa May when she stands down. One MP who is enthusiastic about the idea argues that Harper squares the circle: he’s both experienced as a former chief whip and immigration minister and a fresh face, as someone who is outside the current government. Having been chief whip, he knows the parliamentary party well. It also helps that doing that job meant he stayed neutral during the Brexit referendum. So, he isn’t loathed by either Brexiteers or Remainers. Harper

Even some senior figures in Downing Street were unaware that Theresa May was going to say she wanted to lead the Tories into the next election, I write in the Sun this morning. The Prime Minister’s statement took Westminster by surprise. But even inside Number 10 there are doubts as to how seriously to take what she said. Indeed, I haven’t yet spoken to anyone who is genuinely convinced that she will lead the Tories into the next general election campaign. (Tory MPs were so calm about what May said precisely because they don’t think it is actually going to happen.) I think it is fair to say that May’s

There are few people whose endorsement will be more valuable in the next Tory leadership contest than Ruth Davidson’s. She is, as I say in The Sun today, the darling of the Tory grassroots—more popular with them than the Prime Minister or any member of the Cabinet. But, unlike so many other senior Tories, she isn’t interested in running herself. Her immediate aim is to be First Minister of Scotland, not Prime Minister. All this means that Davidson will be, in the words of one of those being urged to run, ‘the king maker par excellence’. So, there is intrigue in Tory circles that Davidson and Amber Rudd had a

If the last few months should have taught us political commentators anything, it is to be wary of making predictions. So, this is more of a report on what people are thinking than a prediction. But, as I write in The Sun this morning, there is an increasing confidence among May loyalists that she can make it to the end of the Brexit talks. One of the things that gives those charged with maintaining party discipline hope that May can do this is that whenever a leadership contender is seen to be plotting, it hurts their standing with Tory MPs. The old Tory adage that he who wields the dagger,

The next Tory leadership race promises to be a crowded affair. As I say in The Sun this morning, the whips are now worried about Rory Stewart’s ambitions. In a meeting with the government’s parliamentary private secretaries, the deputy Chief Whip Julian Smith demanded that anyone who had been to dinner at Stewart’s house the night before raise their hand. He said that he was determined to put all those with leadership ambitions ‘back in their box’. But this is the wrong approach. Leave aside, that those at dinner claim that it was a farewell to Stewart’s PPS Amanda Solloway, who lost her seat at the election, not a plotting

It would be hard to describe Theresa May’s post-election, premiership as anything other than weak. But, weirdly, this weakness is turning into something of a strength as I say in The Sun this morning. No one in the Cabinet thinks that May can recover sufficiently to lead the Tories into the next election, so no one is in a huge rush to replace her. May is also helped by the fact that there would have to be a leadership contest if she went. ‘No candidate is reconcilable with both Leave and Remain’ laments one Cabinet Minister who has explored whether a coronation would be possible. With no appetite for a

I first met a boyish, sunny Tony Blair more than 20 years ago. Our encounters have always been slightly tense since I reported some clumsy remarks he made about tax when he was still an apprentice PM — and he reacted much as Andrea Leadsom did against the Times last week (though via A. Campbell rather than Twitter). On Wednesday afternoon at Admiralty House he is a stricken caricature of how he was: painfully thin; waxy skin; astonishingly terrible teeth. He is a brilliant actor but not that good: he has been tormenting himself over Chilcot. But he isn’t sorry for the invasion, as he told me, and would do

I have just been to Buckingham Palace, where Her Majesty the Queen has asked me to form a new government, and I accepted. In David Cameron, I follow in the footsteps of a great, modern Prime Minister. Under David’s leadership, the Government stabilised the economy, reduced the budget deficit, and helped more people into work than ever before. But David’s true legacy is not about the economy, but about social justice. From the introduction of same sex marriage, to taking people on low wages out of income tax altogether, David Cameron has led a one nation government, and it is in that spirit that I also plan to lead. Because not

Theresa May’s speech outside Parliament was all about conciliation: she made a point of paying tribute to Andrea Leadsom and David Cameron before giving a brief summary of what May’s Britain will look like. She said her focus was on uniting Britain and, once again, she spelt out that ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – a phrase she has used again and again, which says absolutely nothing about what she thinks Brexit means. Surrounded by MPs and standing next to her husband Philip, she had this to say outside the Commons: ‘I am honoured and humbled to have been chosen by the Conservative Party to become its leader. I would like to pay tribute to the other candidates