Tory leadership contest 2019

Boris Johnson didn’t implode in the BBC debate. So for him, it’s a win

I’m not sure we learned terribly much this from the rather noisy BBC debate this evening. Each Tory candidate had rehearsed the answers so well that they sounded like pull-string dolls at times.  If you watched Ch4’s debate on Sunday – conducted along the lines of its old Fifteen-to-One gameshow – you’ll have heard many of these lines before. Michael Gove strong on his own reforming record and Corbyn-baiting, not so strong on the economy. Sajid Javid a bit more willing to use his biography as strategy, at one point having his rival candidates agree to an inquiry into Islamophobia in the Tory party (although I’m not sure how far

Ivan Rogers: no deal is now the most likely Brexit outcome

We all know this is a great country. Sadly, it’s one currently very poorly led by a political elite, some masquerading as non-elite, which has great difficulties discerning and telling the truth. I am discouraged by just how badly Brexit has been handled to date, and currently pessimistic that this is going to get any better any time soon. I am worried that the longer the sheer lack of seriousness and honesty, the delusion mongering goes on, the more we imperil our long-term prospects. It is not patriotism to keep on failing to confront realities and to make serious choices from the options which exist, rather than carrying on conjuring

Sajid Javid: send me into the final two and I’ll “make a better Boris”

At the hustings held by the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs this evening, the question wasn’t who was going to win but who should be sent to put Boris Johnson through his paces before he wins. Word is that Team Boris is lending about 15 votes to Jeremy Hunt, who he’d most like to go up against – either today, or in later voting rounds. Boris is understood to have over 120 supporters now – more than the next three put together – so he could lend 40 votes to Hunt if he wanted. But he is more likely to keep the number low so the vote-lending isn’t obvious.

James Forsyth

Why the TV debates could break Rory Stewart’s momentum

With Boris Johnson having all but booked his place in the final two, the most interesting question of the Tory leadership contest right now is whether Rory Stewart can get the 33 votes he needs to get through the next round of voting. If he does, he makes it to Tuesday night’s BBC debate. At which point, Stewart would have the chance to take on Boris Johnson directly. Some, including former Downing Street staffers, think that this clash could even propel Stewart into the final two. But I think it could actually break Stewart’s momentum. Why, because a lot of Tory MPs fear too much blue-on-blue action and wouldn’t want

Ross Clark

Rory Stewart is all style and no substance

Ever since Tony Blair appeared on the scene I have found it hard to avoid watching an up-and-coming politician without trying to imagine a clerical collar around their neck. If the image sticks, I would say that person has a potential image problem in the making. Last week Rory Stewart won plaudits for his speech in his circus tent on the South Bank, which was widely seen as being a class apart from the leadership launches of his colleagues, demonstrating the ability to appeal across the political spectrum. To some, in Channel 4’s debate on Sunday, Stewart still towered over his peers – and he certainly had the distinction of being

Matt Hancock: why I’m backing Boris

The Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, dropped out of the leadership race last week and had been mulling whether to support Michael Gove (odds: 25/1) or Boris Johnson (1/5). In the end, he went for Boris. In an article in The Times, he says more. Here’s an edited extract. Central to my outlook is that we need to be optimistic about our country, take an optimistic view of human nature, and get this country moving forward with energy and vim. Because I care about people’s chances in life, I also care deeply about the best way to stop Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister. Boris has run a disciplined campaign and is almost certainly going to

Three things the next Tory leader needs to know about Brexit

And then there were six. The Conservative leadership contest already feels interminable – and, let’s face it, it’s been going since the day after the 2017 election. And yet it’s only this week that the candidates have formally thrown their hats in the ring. We’ve already been treated to bucketloads of ambitious claims, bold rhetoric, and appeals to the power of positive thinking. We’ve had precious little, however, that even begins to respond to the key questions raised by the largest single issue confronting us. So in an attempt to be helpful, we thought we’d address those still in the race and list these Brexit questions in the hope that

The two biggest threats to Boris’s leadership bid

Now the real shenanigans begin. Boris Johnson will – barring a disaster of Johnsonian scale – be on the ballot of Tory members to pick their next leader and our prime minister on or around 22 July. And, truthfully, given that he is by a margin the darling and chouchou of those members, it is challenging to see how he can be beaten. Except for one thing. His campaign has been wholly based on Boris Johnson as an idea, a concept – the idea being that only he through his force of personality and penchant for the arresting bon mot can sequentially deliver Brexit, boost the popularity of his party

Charles Moore

The Spectator’s Notes | 13 June 2019

You would think it would be unarguable that ‘Serious times demand a serious leader’. This, with small verbal variations, is the slogan of both Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt in the current Tory contest, so it is obvious against whom their phrase is directed. Yet there is a counter-argument. The times we live in are undoubtedly serious, and for the past three years we have had, in Mrs May, the most unrelentingly serious leader ever. It has been a disaster. The post-2008 revolts across the western world have all been against seriousness as defined by existing leaderships. Trump, Salvini, Farage, Boris etc. strike a chord because they can burlesque the

Katy Balls

Is an autumn election inevitable?

There’s a joke going around the various warring tribes in the Tory leadership contest. They might not win this time, they tell each other, but not to worry: ‘We’ll all meet again in November.’ The point is that whoever succeeds Theresa May is doomed: the 31 October deadline will pass not with Britain leaving the European Union but with a political crisis and a general election that will be won by Jeremy Corbyn. After that, the Tories will in a few months go through the whole process again — this time to pick a leader of the opposition. ‘We’re using this leadership campaign as a test run for when the

Hard sums

‘Choice’ is a word that is used liberally in Conservative thinking — whether it be about schools, hospitals or consumer goods. It is when consumers have choice, goes the argument, that providers of goods and services are forced to up their game. Choice brings diversity, inspiring new ideas and allowing for their success. It is not clear that the same rule applies to Conservative leadership elections. Never before have Conservative MPs been presented with such a broad array of candidates. Ten made it to the first ballot, rather than the more usual four or five. It is hard to argue that the quality of the contest has improved as a

Boris-onomics is what Britain needs

A few jokes. A sprinkling of tax cuts. A few more jokes. A couple of flashy new buildings. And then back to the jokes. As Boris Johnson launches his pitch for the premiership – and takes a commanding lead among Tory MPs – it would be easy to dismiss his economic programme, along with the rest of his plans, as flimsy self-promotion, with about as much substance as one of his columns. After all, he is leaning heavily on his record as London mayor to prove his credentials and most of his critics will dismiss that as irrelevant. But hold on. In fact, Johnson’s record as mayor was exceptionally good. And his time

Gove, Javid and the uses of backstory

Michael Gove’s launch was, easily, the strongest of any candidate yesterday and he deserves the plaudits he’s getting now. Even if you dislike him, his speech is worth listening to (it’s here) and it was made without notes. I’ve heard him talk before about the school in Liverpool he mentioned where only one pupil got decent grades. In his original telling, his point was that the distance between Liverpool and Edinburgh (where his birth mother is from) was about the same as the distance between Aberdeen and Edinburgh – so he could have ended up in either city. But alongside the cocaine use, another disclosure in Owen Bennett’s new book

John Connolly

The downside of Mark Harper’s ‘Ask Me Anything’ approach

One of the major problems facing the less well-known Tory leadership contenders is this: how do you stand out to Conservative members and MPs when there are so many other candidates? With ten contenders still fighting to be prime minister, even Cabinet members seeking to boost their publicity have been forced to rely on gimmicks, whether it’s Rory Stewart wandering around Kew Gardens pretending to shoot hand-held videos, or Matt Hancock handing out free waffles and phone chargers at his campaign launch. Former chief whip and immigration minister Mark Harper meanwhile decided to opt for honesty at the start of his campaign this morning. In an event entitled ‘Ask Me

Robert Peston

Rory Stewart is reassuringly bonkers

Brexit is both the cause of the Tory leadership contest – it was too much for Theresa May – and is the toxin that threatens to destroy the contest to replace her and her party. The reason is that even if the new prime minister were to take the UK out of the EU – which can by no means be taken for granted – there is unlikely to be a Brexit dividend for him or her or the Conservative Party. Because for most Tories or their potential supporters, Brexit is no more and no less than the duty that voters set the government in that 2016 referendum. So far

Michael Gove’s plan to scrap VAT is a big mistake

When I read about Michael Gove’s plans to abolish VAT and replace it with a US-style Sales Tax, I thought: “Is he on drugs?” Gove’s views on experts have often been misrepresented. His infamous attack was aimed at a subset who haven’t been held accountable for failed predictions, not on the very idea of expertise. In fact, his scepticism of over-confident forecasts was influenced by the research of Prof Philip Tetlock, an expert on forecasting. Yet, while he isn’t the post-truth, anti-expert that his opponents paint him as, he happens to be promoting a policy opposed near-universally by tax experts. It is not often the head of Tax Justice UK and the former executive

If Boris’s supporters don’t trust him, why should the rest of us?

Is this the best the Conservative and Unionist party can do? Really? The extraordinary thing about Boris Johnson’s campaign to become the country’s next prime minister is that even the people supporting him do not think he’s up to the job of being prime minister. The best that may be said of him is that he may defeat Jeremy Corbyn though, frankly, I wouldn’t want to bet on that.  But, his friends and allies say, you can set aside your concerns about Johnson’s suitability for the highest political office in the land. He will have help, you see. He’ll be surrounded by good people – though this is also something

Isabel Hardman

Can Matt Hancock be trusted on Brexit?

What does Matt Hancock offer the Conservative party? He’s a former Remainer who has stayed loyal in Theresa May’s Cabinet and so has a bit of a tricky pitch to make to a party furious about the outgoing Prime Minister’s failure to deliver Brexit. He also hasn’t got an eye-catching drugs story to get attention, for better or worse.  His solution this morning was to offer a slightly trippy leadership launch at which he went entirely overboard on the optimism, energy and bizarre motivational aphorisms. He told a slightly bewildered and haggard-looking press pack that “you are the future of Britain!”, gesticulated at the view behind him and declared “I

Could the Tory leadership race end early?

The Tory leadership is fast becoming Boris Johnson’s to lose, I say in The Sun this morning. He has more MPs backing him than any other candidate, and his campaign receives a further boost this morning with the former Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon endorsing him. In the words of one of those knows the Tory parliamentary party best, ‘the wind is blowing in one direction’. There is increasing talk among senior figures in the party that if the former Foreign Secretary comes out on top in the parliamentary rounds, it would be best to skip the members part of the contest and make him Prime Minister straight away. The