Snp

A shocking Scottish opinion poll reveals that Labour aren’t dead yet

When is a disaster also a miracle? When it allows Scottish Labour to simultaneously endure its worst result since 1931 and live to fight another day, that’s when. Yesterday’s ComRes/ITV poll is the best news Labour has enjoyed in months. That’s how grim it has been for Labour lately. A poll of voters in 40 Labour constituencies which puts them six points behind the SNP may not be much of a lifeline but it’s the only lifeline available to the erstwhile people’s party. It will have to do. Sure, this poll suggests the SNP could take as many as 28 Labour seats meaning that the nationalists would, probably, win something like

New poll shows SNP will annihilate Labour — but the nation is still divided over independence

Scottish Labour is having no luck in denting the SNP’s support. ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll this evening, which shows a 19 per cent swing to the SNP across the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland. Based on this, the SNP would take 28 of these seats in the upcoming general election. North of the border, ComRes puts the SNP on 43 per cent, Labour on 37, the Tories on 13 and Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens on two per cent each. The ComRes findings fall in line with the other polls taken in Scotland from Lord Ashcroft and ICM — the latter recently suggested that the SNP would take

Mini Election: what’s on the mind of Scottish nationalists?

The Scottish nationalists are in a buoyant mood. At last weekend’s spring conference in Glasgow, the 3,000-odd SNPers had two main issues for the upcoming general election: fighting both the Westminster establishment and the coalition’s austerity programme. In the latest Mini Election video, watch above, I spoke to some SNP supporters to find out what’s on their minds. When the conference opened on Saturday morning, the crowd were asked if they were new SNP members or first time attendees of an SNP conference. The majority of those represent in the hall raised their hands, showing just how much the party has grown since the referendum in September. Most of  Nats I spoke to

Jim Murphy fails to mention Labour on his campaign leaflets

Earlier this month the Labour party were accused of not including pictures of Ed Miliband on campaign literature out of fear that the mere image of their party leader could scare off voters. Now Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy appears to have gone one step further and simply not mentioned Labour at all. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, claims that campaign leaflets for Murphy fail to mention the Labour party once: I get @JimForScotland leaving Miliband off his leaflet but why has he left off @scottishlabour? Not a single mention. pic.twitter.com/FenbKEf774 — Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) March 29, 2015 With recent polling by Lord Ashcroft predicting that Murphy will hold on to his East Renfrewshire seat

Alex Salmond invades the stage and appeals to the cultish side of the SNP

Alex Salmond has been oddly absent from the SNP’s spring conference this weekend. Although the former First Minister’s only official positions are as the MSP for Aberdeenshire East and the PPC for Gordon, it’s puzzling why one of the party’s most prominent figures wasn’t given a prime speaking slot. But that didn’t stop him from trying to steal the show. A small stage was setup in the hall for a Q&A session to promote his new book at lunchtime today. But as soon as Salmond arrived, a combination of sound issues and the ecstatic crowd led him to give up on the side stage and invade the main platform. As

Podcast special: eve of the general election campaign + SNP spring conference

The general election campaign kicks off tomorrow and Labour appears to have the ‘Big Mo’. In this View from 22 podcast special,  Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the state of the polls — and the new YouGov/Sunday Times poll which suggests Labour are four points ahead — and whether Ed Miliband’s ‘win’ in the TV Q&A this week has put the Tories on the back foot. What can we expect to happen in the first week of the campaign? We also discuss the SNP’s spring conference in Glasgow and why the Nats are trying to reach out to the rest of the United Kingdom, You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and

James Forsyth

Stakes raised ahead of Thursday night’s debate

The stakes have been raised, at least psychologically, for Thursday night’s debate. Today’s YouGov poll has Labour four points ahead, in contrast to a two point Tory lead in their last survey. This is being seen in Westminster as a Paxman bounce for Miliband. If this Labour leads is still in place at the end of the Easter weekend, Tory nerves will begin to fray. Thursday’s debate will be a crowded affair with seven leaders on stage. Despite it being a two hour debate, there’ll only be time for four questions. As I say in the Mail On Sunday, the debate will almost certainly turn into Cameron versus the rest as they

Nicola Sturgeon’s speech in Glasgow highlights the similarities between the SNP and Ukip

Is Nicola Sturgeon trying to channel Nigel Farage? Scotland’s First Minister regaled the 3,000-strong crowd at the SNP’s spring conference today with some nuggets of policy, more demands for Ed Miliband and even a swipe at Margaret Thatcher. But she also positioned herself as part of a UK-wide movement seeking to ‘shake up’ Westminster in the name of ‘ordinary people’. You might add: the Ukip of the north. SNP folk loathe being compared to Ukip. In fact, when I was writing this piece in a bar at the conference centre, I was berated by a group of Nats who spotted the headline and took me to task. But let’s face

Gordon Brown laments the ‘constitutional revolution’ of his own making

Given that Gordon Brown has hardly been seen in the Commons since losing power five years ago, it was a bit rich of him to say goodbye now. But the SNP uprising has started — it looks set to claim his own seat of Kirkcaldy — and so he’s off. In his final speech to the House of Commons today, he lamented the gradual breaking apart of the UK which was, of course, started by his own party. After indulging in niceties towards Parliament as an institution, the Speaker and his constituents, Brown promised to devote his efforts away from Westminster to ‘the idea of Britain’ and attacked the Conservatives’ plans to

Podcast: Cameron’s second coalition dream and the problems of the sharing economy

David Cameron is secretly planning for a second coalition, according to the new Spectator. In this week’s View from 22 podcast, James Forsyth and Miranda Green discuss the possibility of another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition after the general election. Would it be more difficult than it was five years ago to strike a deal? Will the Conservative party back Cameron if he falls short of a majority and decides against a minority government? And why is 30 MPs the magic number for the Liberal Democrats to enter into another coalition? Fraser Nelson and Alex Massie discuss our interview with Alex Salmond and his plans to hold Ed Miliband’s feet to the fire. Instead of doing a coalition deal with Labour,

Fraser Nelson

Alex Salmond sets out his terms for Ed Miliband

‘Would you like a glass of pink champagne?’ asks Alex Salmond at 3.30 p.m., sounding very much like a man settling down for the afternoon. It’s Monday and Scotland’s former first minister has cause to celebrate. He spent the previous day musing on television about the price he’d demand for the SNP supporting Ed Miliband in the Commons, and his thoughts dominate the front pages. There’s plenty of outrage at the idea of the SNP toying with England, and outrage is just what he wanted. So champagne it is. He has found himself an unlikely star of the Tory election campaign; the party this week released a cartoon showing him

Another poll suggests Labour wipeout in Scotland

Will the SNP eviscerate Scottish Labour? A new poll from the Guardian/ICM today suggests once again that the SNP is on course to do very well in the upcoming general election — and is currently on course to take 29 seats from Labour. As with Lord Ashcroft’s polling earlier this month, the numbers suggest that the swing from Labour to the SNP shows no signs of ebbing away. The SNP is currently on 43 per cent, the same as the last ICM poll in December, while Labour are 16 points behind on 27 per cent. The Scottish Tories are up one point to 14 per cent while the Lib Dems are languishing

Alex Massie

Could the Tories do a deal with the SNP? (Yes they could)

We have been here before, you know. Seven years ago Alex Salmond looked forward to the prospect of a hung parliament and spied an opportunity to ‘make Westminster dance to a Scottish jig’. If Scotland returned at least 20 SNP MPs – members, as the then First Minister indelicately put it, ‘ready, willing, and able to defend our parliament and our people’ – then Scotland’s interests might yet hold the balance of power in London. Not, he stressed, as part of any formal coalition but on a case-by-case and vote-by-vote basis. That didn’t happen, of course. The SNP won only six seats in 2010. Still, a victory delayed is not the

Debate deal finally reached

After months of negotiations, a final deal on debates has now been reached. There will be no head to head debate between Cameron and Miliband. Instead, there will be one seven way debate on April 2nd broadcast on ITV. There will also be an opposition leaders’ debate on the 16th of April on the BBC featuring Labour, the SNP, UKIP, the Greens and Plaid Cymru. On top of these debates, David Cameron and Ed Miliband will both do separate interviews, taking questions from a studio audience on Thursday for a Channel 4 / Sky programme. Then, on 3oth of April, Cameron, Miliband and Nick Clegg will appear separately on a

Keith O’Brien stripped of the rank of cardinal – an extraordinary disgrace for the Scottish Church

Keith O’Brien, former Cardinal Archbishop of St Andrews and Edinburgh, was today stripped of the rank of cardinal by Pope Francis. Technically he has resigned. But the statement above leaves us in little doubt that O’Brien has had the red hat forcibly removed from him. He’s the first cardinal to lose his title since Louis Billot, a French Jesuit who resigned as cardinal in 1927 in protest at the Church’s condemnation of the far-Right anti-Semitic Action Française movement. Billot was the only cardinal to resign in the 20th century. [Update: see discussion in the thread over O’Brien’s title. This he has not lost, de jure, but de facto he is no longer

Scottish nationalism is hypersensitive and insular. So is the newspaper it has spawned

Last year Russia Today launched a poster campaign with a fanciful strapline: ‘This is what happens when there is no second opinion’. The extraordinary implication is that the conflict could have been avoided, if only we had listened to Putin. This is such an obvious fallacy that it’s hardly worth dwelling on. But RT (as it now likes to be known, as if people don’t know what the ‘R’ stands for) is producing lightly disguised state propaganda. The viewers know it and so do the mercenaries that make it. In contrast, Scotland’s new pro-independence daily newspaper – ‘The National’– is written with earnest conviction. Its contributors are devout believers, and

Tories ahead again in first post-Budget poll 

The Tories have pushed ahead of Labour again after George Osborne’s successful Budget. In tonight’s poll from YouGov/The Sun, the Conservatives are ahead by two points on 35 per cent while Labour are on 33 per cent. The Lib Dems have seen no shift, remaining steady on eight per cent, while Ukip is on 13 per cent and the Greens on six per cent. Budgets always tend to produce an immediate polling bounce for the incumbent party — assuming the Budget isn’t badly received. The Tories, though, will be pleased that they are back in the lead after falling behind Labour in the past week. As with all the recent

Steerpike

Labour’s election chief in campaign struggle to hold onto his seat

Douglas Alexander claimed this week that Facebook has made it difficult for politicians to campaign successfully. He said that Labour were struggling to win back voters in Scotland as a result of conspiracy theories being posted on social media. Perhaps Labour’s campaign chief  was simply trying to make early excuses for his own performance in the upcoming election. Alexander is predicted to lose his Paisley and Renfrewshire South seat to a 20-year-old SNP candidate. In a bid to turn the tide, Alexander has been desperately tapping up friends for much-needed campaign cash. Mr S can reveal that the former lawyer has taken £28,000 since January. His donors include David Miliband’s former adviser David Claydon as well as solicitor Fraser Oliver. Surely,

Hugo Rifkind

The real threat to Britain (and it’s not the SNP)

What a load of mendacious balls everybody talks about Scotland. It’s like a disease. It’s like, you know how they say Ebola probably started in some festering bat cave in Guinea? Well, the referendum campaign was that cave. We had secret oilfields and fantasies about the NHS and endless guff about austerity being done for evil Tory fun, and the VOW the VOW and, dear God, the relief when it ended. Only it didn’t end. Instead it spread. And it set the tone. People talk now, for example, about an SNP/Labour coalition. As though this would make sense, when they must know it wouldn’t at all. As though Ed Miliband

Exclusive: Tories agree to TV debate offer

Downing Street has agreed to an offer from the broadcasters for one seven-way election debate on 2 April. The Tories felt that it was close enough to their final offer of one multi-party debate in the week starting 23 March to be acceptable. However, Labour has yet to agree. A Labour source said, ‘We’ve accepted the proposal from the broadcasters for three debates. There is no other proposal from the broadcasters.’ As well as this one seven-way debate, there would also be several election specials involving the various party leaders under this scheme. On 26 March, Cameron and Miliband would be interviewed by Jeremy Paxman and then questioned by a studio audience in