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The myth of the Great British Brexit trade policy

It makes almost no sense for the Brexit debacle to have come down to the issue of an ‘independent British trade policy’. Trade was not a central issue at the referendum and remains wildly misunderstood by public and politicians alike. But we are where we are. If we end up crashing out by accident, or the May government tears itself apart, it will be on the pretext that significant numbers of Tory MPs want that independent trade policy and cannot stomach the restrictions that a customs union would put on Britain’s freedom over trade. It’s hard to know where to start with trying to dismantle the trade illusion, so long

What MPs decide about Brexit is becoming irrelevant

Maybe we will go for a Norway-Double Plus. Or A Canada-Minus. Or Common Market 2.0, or a WTO-Light, an EEA-Doubled, or an Enhanced EFTA or even a Singapore Sling or a White Russian. Okay, scratch those last two. I seem to have mixed up a list of options for leaving the European Union with a cocktail menu. But that pair aside – and who knows, maybe late on a Thursday night MPs will vote them through instead – they are all ways that we might eventually leave. Amid all the arguments over our departure, however, one point is easily overlooked. For the economy, after we sailed through the original deadline

Corbyn’s cheerleaders are wrong to sneer at Which? magazine

First, a confession. Because I try not to spend too much time on Twitter, I sometimes miss “the story that everyone at Westminster is talking about” and struggle to keep up with village gossip. Worse, I lose track of the minor characters the ceaseless opera of poisonous soap, or fail to recognise them for what they are.  For instance, I only recently discovered that Aaron Bastani is actually a real person and not, in fact, someone’s parody of something. Sorry. Today on political Twitter, it seems that “everyone is talking” about Dr Bastani and Which? magazine, in the context of the new Independent Group of Labour MPs.  Dr Bastani suggested that

Mark Carney is finally right about Brexit | 13 February 2019

Cripes. At this rate the CBI will be putting out reports on Brexit’s potential benefits, George Osborne will be reminding us he could always see its upside, and even the FT will be running leaders saying Brexit doesn’t quite mean the end of the world. There have been plenty of twists and turns in our tortured departure from the European Union but few quite so unexpected as the apparent conversion of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to the cause. In a speech yesterday, Carney didn’t opt for any of the apocalyptic stuff – no food on the shelves at Tesco, pensioners dying in hospitals because of

Wealth taxes are back in fashion – but they’re still a terrible idea

Wealth taxes are back in fashion. In the United States, Senator Elizabeth Warren is proposing an ‘ultra-millionaire tax’. In the UK, there are calls for greater taxation of property from a coalition stretching from Lord Willetts, a former Conservative minister, to Owen Jones and other Corbynista activists. I say ‘back’ in fashion, because these taxes appear to be subject to a cycle of sorts – endlessly proposed, debated, then… quietly set aside. Most of the recent UK examples have focused on property. The Tories’ ‘dementia tax’ – a phrase coined by Policy Exchange’s Will Heaven in The Spectator – is remembered all too well from the ill-fated 2017 election. Before

Ross Clark

Is there any point listening to the Bank of England’s growth forecasts?

The Bank of England today downgraded its forecast for UK GDP growth in 2019 from 1.7 per cent (a forecast it made in November) to 1.2 per cent. That is a chunky fall, but really, does anyone really care? As I have pointed out here many times before, the Bank’s record for forecasting is pretty lousy. The past year has been no exception. What has caught my eye is just how over-optimistic it was about Euro area growth a year ago. In its inflation forecast in February 2018 the Bank foresaw GDP growth in the Eurozone over 2018 running at 0.75 per cent per quarter. In the event, growth slowed dramatically

Watch: Jess Phillips’ speech on parliament’s high earners

With all the dramatic votes this week, it could easily have been missed that an important debate about immigration also took place in the chamber on Monday, on the government’s new proposals to limit immigration after Britain leaves the EU. Pulling no punches was the Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, Jess Phillips, who used a speech to pour scorn on the fact that people who earned under £30,000 would be classed as unskilled under the new proposals, and therefore would find it more difficult to emigrate to the UK. But it was Phillips’ remarks about her colleagues in the House of Commons that caught Mr Steerpike’s attention. Pointing out that she

There’s nothing ‘elitist’ about kids following in their parents’ footsteps

Children of doctors are 24 times more likely than their peers to become doctors. Children of lawyers are 17 times more likely to go into law, and children of those in film or television are 12 times more likely to enter these fields. The same pattern is repeated in architecture and in the performing arts. These are the revelations announced in a new book, ‘The Class Ceiling: Why it Pays to be Privileged’, by Sam Friedman, a professor at the London School of Economics, and Daniel Laurison. The book sets out to explore the “helping hands” that allow the well-connected middle-classes to retain their domination in elite professions. Dr Friedman calls

The £1 billion IT project that has caused chaos in the criminal courts

Between 2010 and 2015 the Ministry of Justice endured amongst the deepest cuts of any government department. Yet even as over £2 billion was saved by closing courts, cutting legal aid and allowing prisons to become dangerous, rat-infested, spice-ridden hell-holes, the Ministry of Justice was powering ahead with a £1 billion plan to ‘digitise’ the court system. Unlike the cockroaches crawling along the prison landings it sounded slick and modern, and to some extent it was successful. Most criminal case ‘papers’ are now accessible electronically, a considerable convenience to all concerned, though advocates usually prefer – at their own expense – to print out hard copies for use in court.

Steerpike

Why is Chris Grayling spending so much money on telephone bills?

We’ve all been there – when you open that innocuous looking letter in the post only for your eyes to widen in horror as you see the huge size of the phone bill inside. But while the shocking realisation of a high bill might normally prompt an angry call with the phone company, or a household ban on long-distance calls, for the hapless transport secretary Chris Grayling, it seems only to have been met by a shrug of the shoulders. According to MP expense claims released last week, in August and September last year the transport secretary claimed a massive £958 in telephone bills for his constituency office – including

Is Dyson’s Singapore move anything to do with Brexit?

Brexit has become the inverse of a pair of rose-tinted spectacles. It is the lens through which all negative economic news has come to be interpreted – and magnified. Yesterday, the IMF published its latest forecasts for global economic growth. One might well ask what use this material is, given the IMF’s past record at economic forecasting. But whether these forecasts are of any value or not, they have, predictably enough, been jumped on by the Remain-supporting media in order to scribble yet another chapter of anti-Brexit narrative. Indeed, according to this narrative, it is not just Britain which seems to be suffering now from the moronic, misinformed decision of

The Gillette advert has more to do with market control than #MeToo

For those looking to an antidote to Gillette’s painful ‘The Best a Man Can Be’ advert I highly recommend browsing YouTube for another, equally revolutionary, commercial which also attracted millions of hits. Seven years ago, Dollar Shave Club’s controversial advert revolutionised the congested and hotly contested field of men’s grooming and had Gillette firmly in its sights: ‘Do you like spending $20 a month on brand name razors? 19 go to Roger Federer.’ Gillette’s rivals certainly liked it, with Unilever snapping up the upstart company for $1 billion as Gillette’s market share spiralled downwards from 70 per cent at the beginning of the decade to 54 per cent today. Gillette has

Theresa May moves the market

After suffering what could be the largest Commons defeat in over a hundred years – far surpassing anyone’s expectations, it’s fair to say that Theresa May will not be happy with the way things went this evening. So she might take comfort in the fact that her deal did at least have one positive outcome: providing a small boost to the economy –  though probably not in the way she intended. In response to her Brexit deal being voted down by a massive margin, the pound briefly fell, and then rebounded sharply against the Euro and the Dollar, a clear sign that the uncertainty of the Brexit process was still

Tom Slater

Gillette and the rise of woke capitalism | 15 January 2019

The politicisation of consumer products is one of the weirder developments of recent years. First, Oreos came out in support of gay rights. Then Nike extolled us to ‘believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything’, in its multimillion-dollar campaign with controversial former NFL star Colin Kaepernick. Now Gillette has launched a new advert calling on men to be ‘the best men can be’ and shed the nefarious habits of ‘toxic masculinity’ in the wake of the #MeToo movement. The two-minute advert-come-public service announcement argues that men, in the words of actor Terry Crews, taken from his testimony on #MeToo in the US congress, should hold one another accountable

China’s obsession with Taiwan is nothing to do with money

Does President Xi’s first address of the new year spell trouble for Taiwan? In a 30 minute speech on Taiwan, Xi used much fiercer language than his predecessors on Taiwan’s reunification. Journalists have reported it as ‘chest-beating’ and ‘threatening’. Phrases like ‘the reunification of Taiwan…is the inevitable requirement of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ and ‘we do not promise to renounce the use of force’ certainly don’t bode well. But the speech is actually interesting for a different reason: it reveals why the Chinese are so obsessed with Taiwan. Many outside China don’t understand why a country of 1.7 billion people with the world’s second largest economy is so obsessed

Factcheck: is UK aid being spent on politicians in Bangladesh?

Britain’s foreign aid department was on the defensive this week, following a Mail on Sunday article casting scorn on the decision to spend £200 million in aid on Bangladesh, after the violent and possibly rigged spectacle of the country’s election at the end of last year. In a blistering response, the Department for International Development (DfID), called out the Mail’s headline, which it said was ‘factually inaccurate’ and said that ‘No UK aid was given to the Government of Bangladesh, the Bangladeshi Election Commission or any Bangladeshi political parties for this election.’ But while it may be true that the department has not given money directly to the Bangladeshi government,

Will there ever be an end to Venezuela’s misery?

Venezuelans are preparing for a difficult Christmas – the worst of recent times. The middle-class families I have spoken to in Barquisimeto, Venezuela’s fourth largest city, are not able to afford even the most basic of ingredients for their traditional Christmas meal of pork leg, hallaca, ham and potato salad. These are families who, in the 90s, owned two cars, bought second homes, studied abroad and went on regular holidays to the Andes or the coast. They enjoyed a standard of life much like middle-class Britain, but now their salaries and pensions won’t even stretch to cover a weekly shop. The average Venezuelan lost 11kg in weight last year alone.

The myth of the Brexit cliff edge

The ports will be clogged up with lorries. The shelves at Tesco will be empty. Doctors will be rationing antibiotics, and the army will be called out to deliver food. As we approach the deadline for our departure from the European Union, as the Prime Minister returns empty handed yet again from yet another catastrophic round of negotiations in Brussels, and as the cliff-edge gets closer and closer, the conventional wisdom is that the pressure on Britain to agree to something – anything! – becomes more and more intense. And yet, as so often in the through-the-looking glass world of Brexit, that conventional wisdom is a bit off target. And

The terrifying prospect of a Corbyn-led government

Hats off to Ross Clark for his timely highlighting of the perils of a Corbyn-led government. For those who remember the 1970s, the spectre of an unreconstructed far-left socialist and his acolyte ensconced as neighbours in Downing Street is a terrifying yet wearyingly predictable scenario. Unfettered by opposition, they would see Britain’s economy as being ripe for experimentation. Some of Corbyn’s policy pronouncements which are already in the public domain are alarming enough. Even more concerning should be the as yet unuttered thoughts lurking in the corners of Corbynista minds; the authoritarian student politics and divisive dogma. If Corbyn is elected, we can look forward to a huge amount of

Are we heading for a recession? If so, don’t just blame Brexit

So will those Remainers seemingly hoping for a Brexit-related recession get what they want after all? This morning Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the service sector certainly points in that direction. The index, which is really just a questionnaire to businesses but which can give advance warning of swings in economic growth, fell to 50.4 in November, down from 52.2 in October and 54 in September. Anything above 50 denotes growth – so it doesn’t indicate we are yet in recession – but it suggests a steep plunge in activity and confidence which could well take us there. It would be foolish to deny any link with the Brexit crisis.