Inflation

Has Covid accelerated the cashless society?

Time is, I fear, running out. Running out, that is, to avoid handing to a small number of multinational corporations our right to buy and sell things. Running out to prevent governments and central banks helping themselves to our savings, by means of negative interest rates. The payments industry is closing in on its target of driving cash out of circulation and instigating cashless payments as the only way of doing business. That, at least, is the conclusion one might reach from reading a report by Worldpay: the Global Payments Report 2021. It claims that cash payments in UK shops in 2020 made up 13.4 per cent of total payments,

Inflation is the biggest threat to Boris

The vaccines are rolling out. Lockdown is easing, the EU has been forgotten about, and the Labour party has returned to its traditional pastime of plotting furiously against its leader. No one is even talking about wallpaper anymore. Things could hardly be going better for Boris Johnson, and that has been reflected in local election results and in the polls. There is one looming threat, however. The return of inflation. In truth, rising prices have been destroying governments for a hundred years, and it would be complacent to imagine this one will be the exception. President Biden has embarked on a tax, spend and borrowing spree the like of which

Inflation fears grow

Two months ago The Spectator reported on what was keeping Rishi Sunak awake at night ahead of the Budget: an inflation resurgence that could damage Britain’s economic recovery as it comes out of the pandemic. He deliberately designed his March Budget with inflation in mind, trying to make the UK’s finances ‘Biden-proof’ if inflation or interest rates started to move, and the cost of servicing the country’s debt became remarkably more expensive. At the time, Sunak was a lone voice on the matter. His inflation fears put the decision to raise tax into perspective, but many remained critical of his rather cautious approach. Inflation seemed a strange focus as the conditions

Can Melinda still keep Bill Gates in check?

‘We are seeing very substantial inflation,’ the great investor Warren Buffett told shareholders in his master company Berkshire Hathaway at their online annual meeting last weekend. He was talking chiefly about the housebuilding businesses in his port-folio, hit by rising material costs in what he called a ‘red hot’ economic recovery. But his remarks align him on a broader front with jittery bond investors and big-name economists, such as Larry Summers of Harvard, who have fuelled the US ‘inflation scare’. And if it’s coming over there — pessimists whisper — surely it’s coming over here? Maybe, but let’s keep this in perspective. Headline US inflation is 2.3 per cent but

The thinking behind Rishi Sunak’s cash grab

Rishi Sunak’s tax hikes pack a punch: by 2025, over £19bn is estimated to be raised from the freeze to the personal tax threshold, and a staggering £50bn from a new, tiered corporation tax structure. That’s a lot of people out of pocket, and businesses diverting their profits away from workers and consumers and towards the state. Criticisms of the cash grab are splashed across the front pages of the papers today. Across the pond, the Wall Street Journal has lambasted Sunak’s policies: ‘Britain’s political class, and especially the governing Conservative party, prides itself on fiscal rectitude. So Mr. Sunak already faces pressure to “pay for” all this relief. We

Has the era of low inflation really come to an end?

How many times have you heard in recent months that the era of low inflation is at an end?  The case for that assertion is beginning to look somewhat shaky. This morning brings news that the rate of inflation last month – at least as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – fell slightly in December from 3.1 per cent to 3.0 per cent. While that is hardly a dramatic move it shows that, once again, the surge in inflation predicted by some has failed to materialise. Now that the inflationary effect of a fall in the pound in the second half of 2016 has dropped out of the

Why cryptocurrencies are the answer

The craze for cryptocurrency can be explained by a host of factors: the allure of getting rich quick; the attraction of off-the-grid accountancy for malefactors like tax evaders and drug dealers (though Bitcoin is traceable); the glamour of the new. Despite blockchain currencies’ wild volatility thus far, I’d still posit that the more underlying attraction is to a reliable store of value. Bitcoin investors may not recognise their motivation as such, but the impulse behind computer-generated currency is revolutionary: to take the production and control of money away from government. Now that we live in a world of 100 per cent fiat currencies — backed by nothing — governments can

Portrait of the Week – 19 October 2017

Home Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, went to Brussels and had dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier. They came up with a joint statement that ‘efforts should accelerate over the months to come’. But by this week’s meeting of the European Council, Britain was deemed not to have done enough about the price it would pay to allow the EU to discuss trade matters. No great hope was held out that it would be any better by the next meeting in December. Keir Starmer, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, said: ‘There is no way we would

The real story about inflation? That 3pc is a blip, and the rate will soon fall

Oh dear. About this time last year, as part of its series of predications about how the sky would fall in after the Brexit vote, the NIESR predicted that inflation would hit 4 per cent. This was way out of line with the the consensus, higher than other economist was forecasting. But in the rather febrile atmosphere its nonsense forecast was given plenty of coverage – including a page lead in (yes, you guessed it) the Financial Times. It turns out that inflation has peaked at 3 per cent, and is widely expected to fall. Since the NIESR has been congratulating itself recently on the accuracy of its forecasts, it’s

Cutting the student loan interest rate will only help richer graduates

This weekend the papers mooted that Theresa May’s government is looking to cut the English and Welsh student loan interest rate – now at a 6.1% headline rate for those who began uni in or after 2012 – in order to appeal to the youth vote. I find this frustrating. Not because I object; I’ve always believed on principle student loan interest shouldn’t be higher than inflation – charging students for their education is one thing, charging them for the financing of their education is a step too far. Yet if the Exchequer has limited resources to finally shell out something to relieve student loan pressures, cutting the interest rate is

There could be a downside to the surprisingly steady inflation rate

The core consumer price index of inflation held unexpectedly steady at 2.6 per cent in July, further removing any possibility of an interest-rate rise this year. So what’s the downside? My eye is drawn to a bulletin from Nationwide, the UK’s most sensible mortgage lender. It reports a fall in quarterly profits after a rise in bad debts to £36 million from £16 million for the same period last year — small numbers but a significant trend — and its chief executive Joe Garner warns the sector to ‘balance its lending carefully’ as cheap-rate consumer credit continues to balloon while growth prospects decline. I’d say he’s right on the money.

Bank of England: inflation blip is ‘entirely’ temporary

Although Mark Carney has earned a reputation for doom-mongering over Brexit, today’s Bank of England press conference wasn’t all doom and gloom. While the bank voted – at six votes to two – to keep interest rates at 0.25pc (see the leader in this week’s issue of The Spectator for why this isn’t such a great idea), its Inflation Report did bear better-than-expected news. On inflation, Carney said it was expected to peak at 3pc in October from its current rate of 2.6pc. However, this rise is ‘entirely’ temporary, and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (which aims to keep inflation at 2pc) expects real wage growth to return soon as earnings growth

Let’s stop blaming Brexit for higher inflation

No time has been lost in blaming Brexit for today’s rise in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to 2.9 per cent. It wasn’t just those on the left, either. The head of Theresa May’s policy unit, George Freeman, tweeted this morning: ‘This is reality of the devaluation of the £ post Brexit’. While George Freeman has always been a staunch Remainer, the fact he put this out is possibly indicative of a change in attitude at Number 10 – an attempt to reach out to those in the party who continue to believe that Brexit is a mistake. Yet the longer the rise in CPI goes on the less it looks

Families under further pressure as earnings growth slows

There’s more doom and gloom for households today as new figures reveal the first decline in real earnings since September 2014. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), earnings growth slowed in the three months to March, at 2.1 per cent, compared to previous data which showed wages, excluding bonuses, grew at 2.2 per cent. This compares to inflation which jumped to 2.7 per cent in April. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6 per cent in the three months to March, and is now at its lowest rate since 1975. It was previously 4.7 per cent. It means that 1.54 million people are currently unemployed. While some analysts say that the

Inflation at highest level since 2013

There’s bad news for households this morning following the news that inflation has soared to its highest level since September 2013. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation is now at 2.7 per cent, up from 2.3 per cent in March. This is some way above the Bank of England’s stated 2 per cent goal. A number of factors contributed to the rise, but the main driver was higher air fares. This was largely because the timing of Easter pushed up the price of flights. In addition, tax changes in the Budget added to inflation as did rising costs of energy and clothing. Meanwhile, the retail price index (RPI)

The economy isn’t all roses, but that’s no reason not to vote for Mrs May

As the election campaign goes into full swing, we hear surprisingly little about the state of the UK economy — because the Tories can’t (and probably don’t need to) promise that they can make it any better in the medium term than it is now, while almost no one takes seriously what Labour has to say about it. The truth is, against the odds and for the time being, that it’s ticking along nicely enough not to be a top concern for most voters. Are we right to be so complacent? After a slowdown in growth to just 0.3 per cent in January to March, most analysts expect a pick-up

UK inflation jumps to 2.3 per cent raising prospect of interest rate rise

The economists were right. For months now, they have been warning that the Brexit vote and the subsequent fall in the pound would drive up prices. Today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics confirm that consumer prices are rising at their fastest rate for more than three years. According to the ONS, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) jumped to 2.3 per cent in February, up from 1.8 per cent in January and above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. Food prices recorded their first annual increase for more than two-and-a-half years, reaching 0.3 per cent higher in February than a year earlier. With the prospect of an interest rate rise now

Ross Clark

Rising inflation isn’t anything to panic about

Predictably enough it didn’t take long for the rearguard Remain lobby, and other opponents of the government, to jump on the latest inflation figures, which show the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for February rising from 1.8 per cent to 2.3 per cent. Frances O’ Grady of the TUC, for example, said that Britain risked ‘sleepwalking into another living standards crisis’. A little historical perspective might be in order, especially on the part of the TUC. Inflation of 2.3 per cent would have been a dream back in the late 1970s when its members were pushing the rate beyond 20 per cent through their endless wage demands. Inflation of around two per

Could Brexit mean cheaper food? Don’t open the prosecco yet

‘Brexit to chop food bills’, said the headline in the Sun on Sunday this weekend. The paper ran some research from the campaign group Leave Means Leave, which claimed food prices could fall by hundreds of pounds a year if tariffs are axed after Brexit. Though nobody knows what deal we will strike with trading partners once we leave the EU, it’s worth exploring the basis of Leave Means Leave’s research. It hopes we will enter into a completely tariff-free world. No more eye-watering taxes slapped on the likes of Tate & Lyle’s imported sugar cane, which caused the company to lose £20 million last year. All that new-world wine and South American beef, which

Inflation creeps back like the forgotten whiff of cigarette smoke

From supermarkets to superyacht builders, sales figures are remarkably buoyant: consumer debt may be rising too, but no one can say the New Year economic mood is markedly downbeat. This column feels obliged to find something on the horizon to worry about, however, and my telescope is focused on inflation. If deflation was a real threat to developed economies in recent years, the pendulum is now swinging the other way. UK inflation is expected to hit 3 per cent by late 2017, what with higher import costs generally thanks to the weak pound, fuel-price rises as a result of Opec’s effort to restrict oil production, the pass-through to consumers of