George osborne

Clegg at odds with many Lib Dems over 50p rate

The future of the 50 per cent tax rate is growing issue within the coalition. Unlike most government wrangles, this one doesn’t split on partisan lines, with the yellows on one hand and the blues on the other. The debate is largely being forged by personalities. George Osborne is well entrenched; Eric Pickles weighed-in for the race last weekend, saying that he wanted people “to keep more money in their pockets”, indicating that he hopes the rate is temporary. (He went take a swipe at Vince Cable’s mansions tax, which he described as a “big mistake”.)   It’s David Willetts’ turn this weekend. The Times reports (£) that Willetts believes

Beating fuel poverty

As Tim Montgomerie has noted, a growing priority for voters is the astronomical cost of petrol. In fact, according to a Populous poll conducted outside the Westminster bubble, people are far more concerned about energy prices than almost any other issue, even public sector spending cuts. With prices hitting 150p per litre at some garages, many fear that petrol and diesel is becoming part of the poverty trap. For example, in my constituency of Harlow, figures show that the average motorist is now paying something like £1,700 a year just to fill up the family car. This is a tenth of the average income in our town. Experts have ruled

Stumbling towards fiscal union

Angela Merkel must tire of repeating herself. Eurobonds are “exactly the wrong answer” to the European debt crisis, she said yesterday for the umpteenth time. She added that they would “lead us to a debt union not a stability union”, a free-for-all funded by German taxpayers. She concluded that “greater commitment” from the 27 member states of the European Union was required to stabilise the situation. Her comments would have, perhaps, placated her mutinous coalition in Germany, which is virulently opposed to Eurobonds and expensive integration. George Osborne, on the other hand, might have been slightly perturbed that Merkel prefers “greater commitment” from countries like Britain over the “remorseless logic”

This autumn, Europe could become the most important issue in British politics again

Europe will be one of the political issues of the autumn. The government expects another round of sovereign debt crises in the autumn and these will add urgency to the Merkel Sarkozy plan for ever closer fiscal union between the eurozone members. Nearly every Tory MP and minister I have spoken to is instinctively sceptical of the Franco-German strategy. But Cameron, Osborne and Hague believe that because the Eurozone members won’t accept the break-up of the currency union, Britain has to back further fiscal integration in the hope that it will make the euro work. (Cynically, one might add that their position also makes life easier within the coalition given

EXCLUSIVE: IDS on British jobs

Last week, George Osborne boasted that Britain has the second-fastest job creation in the G7. In tomorrow’s Spectator, we disclose official figures showing that 154 per cent of the employment increase can be accounted for by foreign-born workers. We on Coffee House have often questioned Labour’s record: 99.9 per cent of the rise in employment was accounted for by foreign-born workers. The graphs for the Labour years and the coalition year are below:     The idea of 154 per cent is strange, so I will reproduce the raw figures below:     Now, no one outside Westminster expects the UK labour market to change the day a new government is elected,

With an eye on 2015, Osborne is ramping up the growth agenda

30,000 new jobs by 2015: that is the glittering prediction made by the government as it announces the creation of more enterprise zones this morning. 11 zones* have been identified in total, tailored to foster the expansion of hi-tech manufacturing industries away from London and the M4 corridor. Enterprise zones certainly have their critics – notably the Work Foundation’s Andrew Sissons, who told the Today programme that they were merely an “expensive way of moving jobs around the country.” But the coalition is adamant that it has learnt from past mistakes, insisting that the policy will rebalance the economy and rejuvenate regions that have been “left behind”. There has been

Government expected to renew growth strategy

The word flying around Westminster this evening is that the government is going to announce a fresh package to stimulate growth tomorrow. In line with recent reports, the expectation is that new enterprise zones will be unveiled. Enterprise zones are, of course, the linchpin of the chancellor’s current strategy, offering generous tax breaks for start-up industries, relaxed planning regulations and investment in state-of-the-art broadband, so this would not be a novel move. But an announcement would be timely nonetheless. Lamentable inflation figures released today are set to be joined by poor employment figures tomorrow, suggesting that economic and business confidence may be becoming even more tentative, especially in deprived areas. The grim continental situation is also a matter of grave

Fraser Nelson

Inflation rises yet again

“Inflation destroys nations and societies as surely as invading nations do. Inflation is the parent of unemployment. It is the unseen robber of those who have saved. No policy which puts at risk the defeat of inflation – however great the short-term attraction – can be justified”. That was Margaret Thatcher, speaking in 1980 when inflation was much higher but British politicians actually cared about it. You won’t even hear the Governor of the Bank of England denounce today’s figures: CPI at 4.4 per cent and the traditional measure of inflation, RPI, at 5.0 per cent. It is seen as just another statistic. The government has also chosen to announce

Boris’ long-game strategy

Has the sheen come off BoJo? The question is echoing around some virtual corridors in Westminster this weekend. The Mayor of London was caught off guard by the recent riots and his initial decision to remain en vacances made him look aloof and remote, a sense that grew during his disastrous walkabout in Clapham. Then he joined Labour in calls for cuts in the police budget to be reversed, a decision that reeked on opportunism, superficially at least. The FT’s Jim Pickard has an excellent post on these matters and he reveals that Boris Johnson has been voicing these concerns in private for months and that he has a brace

Osborne’s debt dilemma

If there’s one sentiment that defines George Osborne’s article for the Telegraph today, it’s that there is no need for us Brits to panic. The economic convulsions of the past few days, contends the Chancellor, serve to prove that the coalition was right to approach deficit reduction as it has. “The alternative of more spending and yet more borrowing is now frankly ludicrous,” he says, “and places those who advocate it on the outer fringes of the international debate.” He has a point. As I blogged on Saturday, there are reasons to believe that we’d be hurtling towards a credit downgrade and higher borrowing costs were it not for the

Would the Darling Plan have satisfied the credit rating agencies?

Why have we retained our AAA credit rating despite, by S&P’s figures, suffering a larger debt-GDP ratio than America? The Taxpayers’ Alliance’s Matthew Sinclair answers the question in some detail here, but one passage from S&P’s own analysis stands out. They explain that: “When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with ‘AAA’ long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers–Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.–we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.’s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from

Fraser Nelson

America continues to unravel

The humbling of America — the cover theme of this week’s Spectator — continues with S&P stripping Uncle Sam of his AAA credit rating. The debt downgrade, it says, “reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.” In other words: Obama’s still addicted to debt, and it’s time to stop pretending that his government’s IOU notes rank among the safest investments on earth. Its analysis seems to be pretty much that made by Christopher Caldwell in his brilliant cover story. This move will, as today’s

Brown still hovers over the 50p tax debate

A number of papers report today that George Osborne is minded to replace the 50p tax with Gordon Brown’s original proposal: a 45p tax. How the ex-PM will be laughing. As he knows, even the 45p tax will lose money — that’s why Labour didn’t raise the top rate until the final four weeks of its 13 years. But the Tories haven’t worked that out yet, and the Treasury is still working on the false assumptions he programmed into it. In short, the amount of money that either tax rate will raise depends on what’s called the “taxable income elasticity,” or TIE — a figure suggesting how responsive various taxpayers

Fasten your seatbelts…

It has, to paraphrase Margo Channing, already been a bumpy night — and it’s only going to get bumpier today. The latest news is how the Asian markets have trembled at what’s happening in the West. Japan’s main stock index is down 3.7 per cent. Australia’s is down 4.2 per cent. Hong Kong’s 5.3 per cent. And even oil futures joined in with the collective nosedive, which is continuing as the European exchanges open this morning. All of which adds to the catalogue of horror that was written yesterday. CoffeeHousers will read plenty of grim comparisons in the papers today, not least that yesterday’s plunge in the Dow Jones was

Cable accentuates the coalition’s differences, but not without risk

The Liberal Democrats are in something of a purple patch at the moment, dominating aspects of government policy in the media. Last weekend, Danny Alexander broke his usually modest mould to stand square behind the 50p rate, in contrast to Boris Johnson and George Osborne. The debate encapsulates the current vogue for the coalition partners to accentuate their differences. Today, enter Vince Cable pursued by a mansion tax. In an interview with the Telegraph, the Business Secretary concedes that the 50p rate is not a permanent fiscal instrument, but its removal (after 2015 when the income tax threshold has been raised to £10,000) will require a concession from the Conservatives.

An open letter to Will Straw about deficit reduction…

…or why the US cuts are actually faster than, and just as deep as, ours. Dear Will, We hope you don’t mind us writing a letter-form response to your latest post on Left Foot Forward, which argues that the “coalition government’s cuts are deeper and faster than the Tea Party’s”. But, as we see it, there are several problems with your figures which are easier to explain in a conversational format. Here they are, as best as we can express them: i) The first obvious problem comes when you say that Obama set out $83 billion of deficit reduction for 2012 in his March Budget. Actually, he didn’t. The Congressional

The IMF manages to please everyone

A bet-hedging sort of report into the UK’s economy from the IMF today, which largely supports George Osborne’s deficit reduction plan, but will also give some encouragement to his detractors. By way of a summary, here are the parts that might satisfy Osborne himself, as well as Vince Cable, Ed Balls and Mervyn King: The passage that the Chancellor will flash around Westminster comes on the very second page of the IMF document. “Strong fiscal consolidation is under way,” it reads, “and remains essential to achieve a more sustainable budgetary position, thus reducing fiscal risks.” And the endorsements for the Chancellor’s deficit reduction plan continue inside, not least in the

Which department could be replaced with a mathematical equation?

I answer the question in an article for the Times (£) today, in response to Francis Maude’s announcement yesterday. But for those CoffeeHousers who can’t vault the paywall, here’s the relevant passage: “I have been told of an internal report that makes the argument sublimely well. Before last year’s spending review, the Treasury asked a group of outside experts whether plans for a 40 per cent headcount reduction at the Department for Communities and Local Government were too ambitious. Their response? It wasn’t nearly ambitious enough. The staff cut ought to be at least 90 per cent. Responsibilities for fire prevention could be transferred to the Home Office; responsibilities for

Balls has the public on his side when it comes to a VAT cut

There are few more useful addendums to Danny Alexander’s comments earlier than YouGov’s poll for the Sunday Times today. It asks people about individual policies for growth, and the results will be disheartening for the Tory leadership and encouraging for Ed Balls. An overwhelming majority supports Balls’s call for a cut in VAT, while few back a reduction in the 50p rate: There’s an almost identical picture when it comes to which polices people think would support growth: Perhaps most tellingly, even Tory supporters are against cutting the 50p rate: And, again, a similar picture emerges with respect to growth: Of course, none of this means that Labour has won

Alexander rallies behind the 50p rate

Danny Alexander is usually the very model of collective responsibility: sober, unfussy and diligent, he sets about the coalition’s work without ever causing a scene. Which is what makes his televised comments about the 50p tax rate earlier all the more striking. When pressed on the subject by interviewer Sophie Rayworth, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury was forceful in response. The government doesn’t necessarily want to cut the rate, he suggested, and those who thought it would are inhabitants of “cloud cuckoo land”. He went on: “We set out in the Coalition agreement, and it’s something that we as Liberal Democrats pushed very hard for, that the Government’s first