Economy

Clearing up after the storm

The recession has made Britain’s banks less competitive and they should be broken up, concludes the Treasury Select Committee. As the banking system spiralled towards oblivion in 2008, the market became more concentrated. ‘The financial crisis has resulted in significant consolidation of the UK retail market. Well known firms such as HBOS, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford and Bingley have either exited the market or merged with rival firms. A large number of building societies have merged, undermining the diversity of provision in the sector. Whilst these ‘rescues’ were necessary in order to preserve financial stability, the consequence has been to reduce competition and choice in the market.’ Each merger

At last, Grayling takes on the Ancien Regime

To disguise the radical nature of reform, one need only make it boring. And here Chris Grayling has succeeded spectacularly. Today he has announced further details on the ‘Work Programme’ and the ‘Benefit Migration’, which sound like the type of well-intentioned but doomed reforms that ministers tried over the Labour years. The welfare state has incubated the very ‘giant evils’ it was designed to eradicate. There are, scandalously, 2.6 million on incapacity benefit right now – a category which ensures they don’t count in unemployment figures. Brown didn’t care much, but Grayling is taking this head-on. In tests on 1,700 IB claimants in Burnley and Aberdeen, it was found that

Irish banks in a worse state than was thought

Robert Peston called it: the Irish banks are mired. The latest round of stress tests has been conducted and the headline figure is that the Irish banks face a shortfall of 24 billion euros. A major recapitalisation will follow and it’s likely that more institutions will be taken under state control. Ireland is also likely to ask for more cash from the EU. These tests were based on conservative criteria, where the Irish economy contracted by 1.6 percent this year, unemployment peaked at 15.8 percent and there was a cumulative collapse in property prices of 62 percent. It’s grim in Ireland, but not that grim: most forecasters are predicting GNP

Ed Balls ties himself in knots

The Most Annoying Figure in British Politics™ is spread absolutely everywhere today: in the newspapers, on Twitter and, most notably, in interview with the New Statesman’s Mehdi Hasan. The interview really is worth reading, not least because it pulls out and probes some of Ball’s arguments, both for himself and for Labour’s fiscal reasoning. Guido has already dwelt on the former — “I’m a very loyal person,” quoth the shadow chancellor — but what about the latter? Three things struck me: 1) Oh, yeah, there was a structural deficit. The Big News here is probably Balls’s admission that Labour did run up a structural deficit (i.e. a deficit that remains

Fraser Nelson

When it comes to global warming, rational debate is what we need

We had a sell-out debate on global warming at The Spectator on Tuesday and, as I found out this morning, the debate is still going on. The teams were led by Nigel Lawson and Sir David King, and I was in the audience. I tweeted my praise of Simon Singh’s argument as he made it: it was a brilliant variation on the theme of “don’t think – trust the experts”. He seems to have discovered the tweet this morning, and responded with a volley of five questions for me. Then David Aaronovitch weighed in, followed by Simon Mayo. At 8.35am! I had the choice between replying, or carrying on with

It’s happening in Monterrey

Nick Clegg is in Mexico, striving to build a trade relationship. The Guardian reports that Clegg will address the Mexican Senate, in Spanish. He will concentrate on praising the education sector, which he hopes to export. There are also plans to open British universities to affluent Mexicans, and Clegg is being accompanied by four universities vice chancellors and David Willetts. At the moment, trade between Britain and Mexico, the world’s 14th largest economy, is negligible – Clegg claims that Britain accounts for less than 1 percent of rapidly developing Mexico’s imports. There are huge opportunities to expand. UK Trade and Investment has 3 dedicated offices in Mexico and it is

Cairo Diary: it’s the economy, stupid

Whether revolutions devour their own children often depends on the ability of a post-revolutionary government to deliver political freedom, jobs and services. Egypt is no different. If the economy opens up, then the country’s transition to democracy is likely to continue. If not, then anything can happen. So, which will it be? The stock exchange has reopened and is doing better than many expected. The government is bullish about growth, but it is hard to see where it will come from. Tourists, who account for a major part of the economy, are staying at home. Hotels are empty and BA is cancelling flights due to lack of passengers. The uncertainty

Why Cameron is so keen on start ups

Cabinet ministers were relatively relaxed about yesterday’s march against the cuts—and rightly so. It did not make a sea-change in British politics and merely served to underline the lack of a credible alternative to what the coalition is doing. But what does worry ministers is where the growth is going to come from in the economy. The corporation tax cuts and the planning law changes are designed to help big business. But what the Prime Minister is more interested in is small businesses; hence tomorrow’s launch of Start-Up Britain by the Prime Minister. The scheme is designed to offer help—both technical and financial—to those looking to start a business. The

What Portugal means for the UK

Last night, Portugal’s parliament voted to reject its latest measures to deal with its deficit. It was the fourth time that the Portuguese parliament had been asked for more taxes and for more spending cuts. The result has been a further loss of confidence in Portugal’s ability to pay its debts. Market interest rates have risen to over 8 percent. European leaders are meeting this weekend to work out a path forward. The lessons for us here in the UK are starkly clear. First, it is better to set out all the difficult decisions needed to deal with the debt crisis, even if these take place over a number of

Merging Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions – Simples?

“I am announcing today that the Government will consult on merging the operation of National Insurance and Income Tax.” The word ‘consultation’ in the Budget drew the longest, loudest sigh from me. Some commentators had hinted that Osborne was considering merging Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions (NICs), which would be a fantastic move towards simplifying our tax system.  Of all the pre-Budget leaks, this was one that sounded truly exciting and innovative.  But, alas, this idea is only in infancy and all that was promised was a consultation.  Of course, the Chancellor can’t rush into this. He has to get this right if it goes ahead, so a consultation

Fraser Nelson

Osborne gets his man

So Martin Sorrell is set to move WPP back to Britain. This was always part of Osborne’s Budget plan, as I revealed in my News of the World column and also mentioned on Coffee House. As I said in the newspaper: “The Chancellor has been on bended knee, pursuing Sorrell with energy that would make Berlusconi blush. ‘What do we need to do?’ he asks. Sorrell’s answer is to cut the tax on overseas profits. So Osborne will, hoping to lure back companies who generate most of their cash abroad.” Today, Sorrell will announce that he’ll come back from Ireland if the Budget is made law. Of course it will

Osborne’s 50p question

If I was a betting man, I’d fancy wagering that if the economy is growing at a decent clip again by next year’s Budget, Osborne will abolish the 50p rate then. His announcement of a review of how much revenue it actually brings in, strikes me as a move to pave the way for its abolition. This review is, if it is using dynamic models, likely to conclude that the rate is bringing in no, or minimal, revenue and that a lower rate would produce more. This would give Osborne the political cover to reduce the rate. But, as with so much else, this is dependent on growth returning to

The big question: has Osborne done enough to deal with inflation?

“We understand how difficult it is for so many people across our country right now.” If you weren’t sure which direction George Osborne’s Budget was going to head in, then he clarified it right from the start of his speech. This was one to tackle the rising cost of living. And much of it — such as the raise in the personal allowance and the fuel duty cut — was welcome. But there is a nagging question hovering above Osborne’s announcement today: has he done enough? The Chancellor will certainly hope so. After all, by scrapping the fuel duty escalator he has effectively encoded a tax cut into all of

James Forsyth

Osborne pulls it off

George Osborne beat the expectations game today. His abolition of the fuel duty escalator for this parliament should — Elizabeth Taylor and Libya permitting — get him the front pages he wants.   Aside from the headline measures, I think there are three stories that will run on from this Budget. First, the government is accepting the Hutton report’s recommendations on public sector pensions in full. This puts the ball firmly back in the unions court, who had previously accused the government of trying to cherry pick from it. Second, the requirement that all planning decisions will have to be reached within one year will have a big impact. A

Fraser Nelson

The levers that Osborne might pull

Cutting taxes for the low-paid is the most useful thing Osborne can do in what will, I suspect, be a distinctly unmemorable budget. The Mail and The Sun both have competing figures — £205 and £320 — for the annual rebate. Given that the average Brit is paying £310 more due to Osborne’s VAT rise in January, one might forgive taxpayers for not punching the air. And anyone on more than £25k a year is still face a higher tax burden than they did three months ago. But the beauty of Budget day (as Osborne knows) is that you have can just present one side of the ledger. You can

Spiralling inflation continues to squeeze some more than others

The February inflation figures spell more bad news for living standards in the UK. With average weekly earnings growth standing at just 2.2 per cent, millions of workers continue to get poorer in real terms. However, differences in the make-up of typical “shopping baskets” mean that the spending implications of inflation vary by income group. Since 2007, inflation has been driven primarily by increases in food and fuel prices. Given that such staples account for a larger share of weekly expenditure among lower income households than among higher income ones, the impact is felt more acutely in the lower half of the income distribution. The below chart details the impact

Allowing growth, not forcing it

What is a “Budget for Growth,” and how can one be delivered? These questions have been preoccupying civil servants across Whitehall, policy folk in think tanks, and the press since the coalition announced in November that it would be reporting back on its “Growth Review” in the 2011 Budget. While foreign events rightly moved discussion of the impending Budget further back in last weekend’s papers, there was extensive coverage of the potential for targeted tax cuts and reliefs and incentives targeted at particular industries or sectors. The obvious problem with a number of these is that they cost money, and this is something the coalition does not have in spades.

Fraser Nelson

Inflationary troubles ahead of Osborne’s Budget

Unwelcome news for George Osborne: he will tomorrow present his Budget against a backdrop of the highest inflation for 20 years. The RPI index — what the nation called “inflation” until Brown changed the definition — is 5.5 per cent. It hasn’t been this bad since the aftermath of the ERM crisis, an unhappy comparison for the Tories. The CPI index is up to 4.4 per. And those who deploy the usual arguments about global food prices are spiking might wonder: why is Britain now even worse off than Greece?     Even the Zimbabwean media is laughing at us (their inflation is now considerably lower than ours). It’s shocking,

Debunking UK Uncut

You may have heard of UK Uncut? They’re certainly good at attracting attention: forcing their way into Barclay’s bank the other week and managing to close a branch of TopShop temporarily.   But what they have in noise they lack in substance. New research by the Institute of Economic Affairs exposes how the ‘grassroots movement’ want Vodafone to pay tax in the UK on the profits it makes in Germany. It’s a reasonable principle – taxing companies based on where they are domiciled is fine. But they also want Boots, a Swiss company, to pay tax in the UK on the profits it makes selling items to Britons, from British shops.