Coalition

The moment that a Downing Street spokesman recommended wearing a jumper to reduce high energy bills, you knew that two things would happen. As sure as night follows day, the Labour leader spun a line criticising the ‘out of touch government’: Their crime policy used to be ‘hug a hoodie’. Now their energy policy appears to be ‘wear a hoodie’ – @Ed_Miliband — Labour Press Team (@labourpress) October 18, 2013 Then the internet spent Friday afternoon in stitches: Cameron heard about #jumpergate whilst in his car. Pull over! he told his chauffeur — Felicity Morse (@FelicityMorse) October 18, 2013   “We’re all in knit together” #jumpergate — Lucy Rigby (@LucyRigby)

Are there any upsides to climate change? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, author and columnist Matt Ridley discusses the economic impact of global warming with Fraser Nelson, and whether there are any benefits to a rise in temperatures. Will there be a tipping point for disastrous effects? Are we taking the right precautions to deal with that point? Douglas Murray also looks at his encounter with ex-English Defence League leader Tommy Robinson, and what lies ahead for the far-right movement in Britain. Will the EDL wither away without Robinson? And are all far right parties finished in this country? Plus, Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth examine the prospects for another Conservative coalition

The Tory talk of backing an increase (£) in the personal tax allowance to £12,500 serves several purposes. First, it makes it easier for the Tories to champion raising the rate to £10,000 and it gives them a tax cuts that’s aimed at low and middle income earners. But it also draws a neat dividing line with Labour, which is not keen on this policy, ahead of any future coalition negotiation. Indeed, I understand that thinkers close to Miliband have urged Nick Clegg to drop his attachment to raising the income tax threshold and instead think about using the money for a big universal childcare offer. Danny Alexander has already been out

Royal Mail shares are currently trading at 421p, 91p above its 330p opening price. This morning, the shares hit 456p before falling back slightly. This increase of more than a third in value and the fact that the share offer was so oversubscribed has led to lots of claims this morning that Royal Mail was undervalued. But it is worth remembering that when the government announced it was going to privatise Royal Mail, there was lots of chatter about how the government would struggle to get it away. It was argued that it was foolhardy to sell it into a strike by postal workers. On its current price, the Royal

There are two more government resignations ahead of tonight’s reshuffle. John Randall, the deputy chief whip, has gone as has Chloe Smith, the Cabinet Office minister. Randall’s retirement has been overdue for a while now in the opinion of many in Downing Street. There is irritation at the way he put pressure on David Cameron to get rid of Andrew Mitchell during the plebgate affair. His departure and the expected elevation of several whips—Nicky Morgan and Karen Bradley are both in line for promotion—paves the way for a freshening up of the whips’ office. Chloe Smith quitting is going to tempt everyone to dust off the footage of that Paxman

Like so many pundits before me, I had earnestly hoped never to begin a piece on coalitions by quoting Disraeli.  But since I was asked by Bright Blue and the Electoral Reform Society to join Mrs Bone’s husband, as well as Ms Hardman and Mr Oborne of this parish, on the Tory fringe in Manchester to discuss whether the country would ever love coalitions, it has sadly proved unavoidable.  I can only apologise. My answer to the question, in case you were interested, was that England might not learn to love coalitions but that, like Scotland and Wales before it, it has very quickly come to accept them and that,

We’re about to find out what Tory MPs really think of John Bercow. Simon Burns, Bercow’s biggest Tory critic–and that’s says something, has resigned his ministerial post to run for deputy speaker. If he wins, the Speaker will be forced to work day in, day out with someone who, as Tim Shipman who broke the story points out, once called him a ‘stupid, sanctimonious dwarf’. David Cameron’s very warm letter accepting Burns’ resignation suggests that the Prime Minister is rather amused by the prospect. I also suspect that he’s grateful for Burns freeing up a ministerial post ahead of the reshuffle next week. The vote for deputy speaker is a

In Manchester this week, there’ll be much talk from the Tories about how they are gunning for a majority. But in private, many senior Tories will admit that being the largest party in another hung parliament is a more realistic aim. As Matthew d’Ancona reveals in the Telegraph this morning, there has been talk—albeit brief– between the principals about a second coalition. Matt also reminds us how, if it had not been for Cameron’s intervention, a mansion tax would have been imposed by the coalition. I suspect that if there is to be another coalition, the Liberal Democrats would insist on some kind of mansion tax. It has come for

In YouGov’s poll this morning for the Sun the Conservatives had 33 percent support, Labour 40 percent, the Liberal Democrats 9 percent and Ukip 11 percent. While it would be a gross exaggeration to say all of Ukip’s support comes from the Conservative party, they do gain a disproportionate amount of support from ex-Tories and it’s natural for people to add together that Conservative 33 percent and that Ukip 11 percent and think what might be. The reality though may not be as simple as adding the two together. In yesterday’s poll we also asked people to imagine that Ukip and the Conservatives agreed a pact at the next general

This is not the backdrop that Ed Miliband would have wanted for Labour conference. Labour’s poll lead has—according to YouGov—vanished, Damian McBride is dominating the news agenda and there’s talk of splits and division in this inner circle. But, as I say in the cover this week, you can’t write Ed Miliband off yet. He has three huge, structural advantages in his favour. The boundaries favour Labour: Type Thursday’s YouGov poll, the best for the Tories in 18 months, into UK Polling Report’s seat calculator, and it tells you that Labour would be three short of a majority on these numbers. It is a reminder that if the parties are

I write this in Glasgow, at the Lib Dem conference. Nick Clegg has invented a constitutional doctrine. The doctrine teaches that after a general election, the party that comes third (should it have cohabitation in mind) must first approach the party that won the most seats. But there is no such rule. Our unwritten constitution is clear, minimal and simple. Any two parties jointly capable of commanding a Commons majority have an effective right to form a government together whenever they wish. That right is born of their joint ability to bring down any other government on the instant. So after the general election in 2015, unguided by the rule

Normally, a party that was down in the polls and on course to lose around a third of its parliamentary seats would be in a grim mood, with the leader under pressure. But we don’t live in normal times; we live in coalition times. So, the Liberal Democrats have just had a remarkably chipper conference thanks to their belief that there’ll be another hung parliament. This, they calculate, will ensure that they get another five years in government. Nick Clegg’s speech today — and its confidence — was predicated on this assumption. There is a danger for the Liberal Democrats that the public rebel against the idea that a party

This Liberal Democrat conference is demonstrating that the last election result was actually a relatively simple one for the Liberal Democrats. The parliamentary arithmetic meant that the party only had to decide whether it wanted to be in government or not. No one in the party could accuse those who backed the idea of being ‘closet Tories’ because there was no Labour option. Most Liberal Democrats, and particularly older ones, instinctively — and rather unthinkingly — rebel at the suggestion that they might actually want to govern with the Tories. Paddy Ashdown’s rage at The Observer on Sunday morning was over the fact that he felt the headline ‘Paddy Ashdown says

A rather irritable Paddy Ashdown has just told Andrew Neil that the Lib Democrats are ‘a left-wing party’ but that their next coalition would be determined by the voters. Ashdown, whose chairing the Lib Dem election campaign, claimed that it simply wasn’t accurate to say that Lib Dems had a preference for who they’d like as their coalition partner. This is, to put it mildly, a dubious statement and Ashdown did feel the need to concede that senior Lib Dems did have ‘private likes and dislikes’. But he claimed that this wouldn’t influence their decision about who to go into government with. Ashdown’s aggressive approach to this question is designed

The coalition government is preparing a new case for HS2. Concerned that public and political support for the project is slipping away, there’ll be a major effort to renew enthusiasm for it. In this new case, there’ll be far less emphasis on speed and far more emphasis on how HS2 is needed because the existing railway lines are full up. This marks a recognition inside government that the savings on the journey time to Birmingham, which are less than half an hour, are too small to act as a public justification for the project. Expect to see this new argument reflected in the Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin’s speech on Wednesday.

William Hague’s appearance at the 1922 Committee has underlined the fact that the Tory party is now split on foreign policy. I’m told that the questions that the Foreign Secretary received were pretty much evenly split between the passionate supporters of intervention in Syria and its passionate opponents. Those present calculate that the room was evenly split between the two factions. Hague, I understand, made a robust case for why Britain needs to remain an outward looking nation that is prepared to use its military forces. But he did say, when asked, that ‘lessons will be learned’ from how the Syria vote was handled. This answer will fuel Westminster speculation

Conservatives have been returning to their Westminster offices this week to find the wind behind them. Something suddenly seems to be going right: there’s good news on the economy, jobs and immigration and Labour seems to be in gentle meltdown. The idea of an outright majority in a 2015 election suddenly seems a lot more plausible. Which is why ministers and advisers are so dismayed at reports last week that David Cameron was planning for a second coalition after 2015. Just when a Tory election victory seemed possible, the Prime Minister has been mulling over a change in party rules so that MPs could vote on a new coalition agreement.