Bank of england

Why Mark Carney’s Canadian success story may be about to fall apart

No Bank of England governor has ever been installed in office with quite so much advance hype as Mark Carney. When he moves from running to the Bank of Canada to his new office in Threadneedle Street, expectations will be running high. Carney arrives with a reputation as a master of economic strategy, a man who can single-handedly steer an economy through the most treacherous of waters, and get a country growing again with a few deft strokes of monetary magic. Certainly, George Osborne has invested his hopes in him. During Carney’s time as governor in Canada, the country was ‘acknowledged to have weathered the economic storm better than any

Forget beer and petrol: will MPs debate monetary policy today?

MPs are debating the detail of the Budget today, and will doubtless pick over some of the lines from George Osborne’s round of interviews this morning, particularly the confusion over whether Help to Buy is available for those buying second homes. There are plenty of queries about whether the government’s new mortgage plans are actually very wise at all. The debate will inevitably focus on the doorstep issues on taxes and cuts. But will MPs talk about one of the most important elements of yesterday’s announcement? It wasn’t on petrol, and it wasn’t beer duty. It actually concerned monetary policy. The first was that finally the Chancellor wants the Bank

The problem with Mark Carney

In Washington last week, I encountered amazement that the Bank of England is about to be run by a foreigner. This was not because of any contempt for Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, who will soon succeed Sir Mervyn King, but because Americans could not imagine how a job so pivotal in the national psyche could be bestowed on someone with a different allegiance. The Fed, though far from popular in a country constitutionally suspicious of central power, does have a mythic, incorruptible status. As a result, the chairman, Ben Bernanke, has a tiny (by banking standards) salary. Last year, he was paid $199,700. This is

The Bank of England panics and misses the point

Wonders never cease. I awoke this morning to hear that the Deputy Governor, Paul Tucker, had announced that consideration should be given to the Bank of England setting negative interest rates. Whatever next? Anyone who had seen our current fiscal and monetary predicament, outlined in detail in my Centre for Policy Studies report today, is certainly likely to feel bemused. By international standards British monetary and fiscal policy has been extreme. Interest rates, at 0.5 per cent, are already at their lowest rate in the 300 plus year history of the Bank. The fiscal deficit, at over 8 per cent of GDP, is far worse than during the 1970s crisis

Mark Carney: I want a debate on inflation target

If Mark Carney had any reservations about his move to Threadneedle Street later this year, he might now add to his list regular sessions with the Treasury Select Committee. His three-and-a-half hour hearing included a quiz from Committee member David Ruffley on his ability to explain capital ratios and other terms, questions on how many mistakes he’d be happy for staff to make, whether he wanted to rename the Bank’s Court, and whether he’d judge his success on the return of growth to the economy during his tenure. The MPs also started their session with a bit of a grump about his £874,000 pay package, although as James Barty argued

Sir Mervyn defends George Osborne’s QE trick

Sir Mervyn King told MPs, slightly wearily, at the end of today’s Treasury Select Committee hearing, that this was his 100th appearance before a parliamentary committee since he joined the Bank of England. It was as rigorous a session as any of the 99 others that the Governor has sat through in his time, with the committee members choosing in particular to attack the decision to transfer £37 billion from debt interest in the Asset Purchase Facility from the Bank’s QE budget back to the Treasury. As Jonathan blogged on Monday, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned George Osborne against using that transfer to meet his debt target, and MPs

Like the Mounties, Osborne gets his man

George Osborne pulled off one of those bits of political theatre that he so enjoys today. Watching his statement in the Commons, one sensed something was up as Osborne delighted in delaying naming the new bank governor. It was an indication that, like the Mounties, the Chancellor had got his man. Moments later, a clearly delighted Osborne announced that Mark Carney, the Canadian Central Bank Governor, would be the new governor of the Bank of England. This is quite a coup for Osborne as Carney is widely regarded as the best central bank governor in the world. It also marks a clear break with all that has gone wrong in

Fraser Nelson

Osborne’s coup: Mark Carney is the new Bank of England Governor

Hiring Mark Carney may just be George Osborne’s best move since becoming Chancellor. Britain badly needed a break from the failed economic consensus which still hangs around the Bank of England like a bad smell. In August, The Spectator implored the Chancellor to mount a global search. When Carney ruled himself out, I gave up hope and resigned myself to Paul Tucker, who would be likely to keep Britain on its current Faustian monetary path paved with freshly-minted banknotes. Instead, Osborne has succeeded in hiring one of the best-qualified of all the Queen’s 137 million subjects — from a country that knows a thing or two about economic crises and how

Sir Mervyn King: Quantitative easing is reaching its limit

Quantitative easing isn’t an eternal elixir of economic health. That was the admission from Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King last night at a speech in Cardiff. Sir Mervyn said there were limits to the BoE’s policy of printing money to buy bonds, which could not ‘continue indefinitely’: ‘One thing we can see clearly is that the recovery and rebalancing of the UK economy are proceeding at a slow and uncertain pace. At this stage, it is difficult to know whether some of the recent more positive signs will persist. The Monetary Policy Committee will think long and hard before it decides whether or not to make further asset

The poverty of economics

The IMF’s growth downgrades will make tomorrow’s newspaper headlines but the more striking point is its decision to massively rewrite British economic history. As Citi’s Michael Saunders notes (PDF), the IMF now believes that UK economy was massively overheating in the boom. What we had thought was normal growth was, in fact, crazy exuberance.  Britain’s economy was more overheated by any in the G7, the IMF now tells us. Things were worse in 2007 than in the ‘Lawson boom’. Had we known about this overheating, of course, it ought to have been remedied by an interest rate rise. The asset bubble might never have been blown and the cheap debt party

Another growth plan falters

It seems that yet another coalition growth scheme is falling flat on its face: this time, Sir Mervyn King’s ‘Funding for Lending’ brainwave. The theory was that the Bank of England would lend money at below-market rates to the financial institutions: sub-prime loans, in other words. Not without its risks: chiefly, what if the banks just use this cheap cash to lend more to their safest borrowers, rich guys with big deposits? Don’t worry, Sir Mervyn said, the Bank would monitor every month and report back. It just has, and Citi Research has chewed the results (PDF). Rather than ‘get the banks lending’ the first four weeks of Funding for

Wanted: superhuman central banker

The race to replace Sir Mervyn King started today when an advert searching for the next Bank of England governor appeared in the Economist. It wasn’t a particularly exciting start to the race: William Hill has named Paul Tucker the favourite to succeed Sir Mervyn. He is currently 7/4 to get the job. Tucker is the deputy governor of the Bank currently, and based on his job title alone, the odds would hardly be surprising. But remember that this is the man who made a meal of his appearance before the Treasury Select Committee in July, uttering the strange phrase that ‘we thought it was a malfunctioning market, not a

Picking the next Bank of England Governor

Treasury questions is one of the more entertaining spectacles on offer in the Commons. There’s the standard banter between George Osborne and Ed Balls – today we saw the Chancellor dub his opposite number ‘the member for Unite west’, with Ed Balls noting in his reply that at least he’d only been heckled by a few trade unionists rather than the entire Olympic stadium. There were new ministers to welcome too: Greg Clark received such a warm cheer that he joked he felt ‘like Boris Johnson’. But the centrepiece of the session was – along with the confirmation that the Autumn Statement will take place on the rather wintery date

QE — the ultimate subsidy for the rich

It’s official: Quantitative Easing has marked the biggest transfer of wealth to the rich of any government policy in recent documented history. The Bank of England released an analysis today, which was rejected as being an underestimate by the former government pensions adviser Ros Altman. But it was shocking enough, and the strongest point was made by the brilliant Ed Conway, economics editor of Sky News, who put it into a graph who would benefit from a QE-inspired boom in asset prices described by the Bank of England  today. “10th” means the richest tenth of the population, and so on. This is our new graph system: hover your mouse over each

The Bank of England: no Paul the Octopus

When challenged on the Bank of England’s poor record of economic forecasting by Ed Conway of Sky News this morning, Mervyn King said: ‘This isn’t a spot the ball contest where you’re trying to hit one point on the picture. This is a question of assessing the balance of risks…  We don’t pretend to have a crystal ball to see the future. All we can do is assess the balance of risks. I think this is a reasonable judgment about the balance of risks. It doesn’t say that there will be a recovery. It says that in our central view there will be a recovery, and there are risks on

Isabel Hardman

Economy ‘close to zero’

Sir Mervyn King’s sporting jokes are almost as bad as the Bank of England’s ability to publish accurate economic forecasts. As he unveiled the August Inflation Report this morning, the Governor said: ‘Unlike the Olympians who have thrilled us over the past fortnight, our economy has not yet reached full fitness, but it is slowly healing. Many of the conditions necessary for a recovery are in place, and the MPC will continue to do all it can to bring about that recovery. As I have said many times, the recovery and rebalancing of our economy will be a long, slow process. It is to our Olympic team that we should

Isabel Hardman

Lower inflation eases the squeeze, for now at least

George Osborne might not be feeling particularly comfortable with today’s August Inflation Report from the Bank of England, as Sir Mervyn King is expected to slash the Bank’s growth forecast for the British economy in 2012 from the 0.8 per cent it predicted in May to close to zero. This morning’s announcement will also include some mildly good news for households, with the Bank due to predict a 2.1 per cent fall in inflation by the end of the year. This will bring inflation down below the two per cent target, which, as the CBI’s Richard Lambert pointed out on the Today programme, will mean ‘families starting to feel a

More smoke from the Libor fire

A new cache of emails released today by the Bank of England reveal its deputy governor Paul Tucker was warned that it was ‘plausible’ that Libor rates were being ‘influenced by commercial incentives’. Tucker insisted in his appearance before the Treasury Select Committee that he and colleagues ‘thought it was a malfunctioning market, not a dishonest one’. But an email sent by an unnamed official to Mr Tucker on 22 May 2008 points to a possible manipulation of Libor. It contains notes of a meeting which say: ‘There is a long-standing perception that Libor by virtue of the manner in which it is set is open to distortion: panel banks have no obligation to

Libor and what the Bank did and didn’t know

Listening to Mervyn King and his Bank of England deputy Paul Tucker over the past few days, you’d have thought they only found out about Libor manipulation with the rest of us, three weeks ago. Appearing before the Treasury Select Committee this morning, King stated that ‘the first I knew of any alleged wrongdoing was when the report came out two weeks ago’. But documents from the New York Federal Reserve, made public as part of the US Congress’s investigation, suggest that US authorities did know, and tried to warn the Bank of England that manipulation was going on. First, the transcript of a phone call on 11 April 2008 between a Barclays

King joins Libor drama

Up to now, Sir Mervyn King has played largely a walk-on part in the Libor scandal, prompting Bob Diamond’s resignation after he warned Barclays that the regulators no longer had confidence in Diamond’s leadership of the bank. Now the Governor of the Bank of England has also been dragged into the drama after email exchanges released by the Bank revealed that he was aware of deliberate misreporting of the rate in June 2008. Timothy Geithner, who was then the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, emailed Sir Mervyn with a list of recommendations for improving Libor, one of which tackles how to ‘eliminate incentive to misreport’. The