Bank of england

The Battle for Threadneedle Street

I thought it obvious that Mark Carney’s trip to Scotland yesterday was a bad day for Alex Salmond and the Scottish nationalists. Sure, the governor of the Bank of England said, a currency union between Scotland the the rump UK could happen and be made to work but it would be fraught with difficulty and sacrifice too. Do you really want to do that? How lucky do you feel? Carney, being a Canadian and therefore a man crippled by politeness, did not add “punk”. In response the SNP were reduced to pushing a meaningless poll which found 70% of Britons favouring a currency union after independence. That is, 70% of

Alex Salmond writes a cheque – in pounds sterling – he cannot honour

As I type this, Alex Salmond and Mark Carney are chowing over porridge at Bute House, the First Minister’s official residence in Edinburgh. There is always the risk of exaggerating the importance of these things but this morning’s meeting with the Governor of the Bank of England may be the most important encounter Alex Salmond has this year. The question is simple: will an independent Scotland be able to forge a currency union with the rump United Kingdom? The answers, for all the First Minister’s bland assurances that such a union is in everyone’s interests, are not so simple. Like poker players, politicians often have a “tell”. When Salmond offers

Carney may call for the end of Help to Buy sooner than you think

Mark Carney’s speech to the Economics Club of New York yesterday made clear that very low interest rates now ‘put a premium on macroprudential policies’. Translation: he’s not going to hike interest rates soon, but he wants us to know that there are other levers he can pull to keep the UK economy on track. What are those levers? First, Funding for Lending. Two weeks ago Mark Carney announced that the scheme – which offers banks cheap funding if they increase lending to the real economy – would no longer be available for mortgage lending. It will only be open for loans to companies. That’s a lot more than just

There’s a revolution — in banking

In 1925 Winston Churchill, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, famously declared that he wished to see ‘finance less proud and industry more content’. In the light of the financial crisis, much the same refrain has been heard from policymakers and politicians over the past five years. How are we to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past? And how might the financial sector reinvent itself for the future? I wish to argue there are grounds for optimism. Out of the ashes of the financial crisis a new type of banking is emerging. Old business models are being rewritten and new entrants are driving change. Indeed, it’s possible that the financial

What Vodafone should do with its huge windfall: invest it in the next Vodafone

Vodafone, which has just collected an £84 billion windfall from the sale of its 45 per cent stake in Verizon Wireless of the US, is either a hero or an anti-hero of British capitalism, according to taste. To me, the world’s second-largest mobile phone business is heroic because it achieved that position from a standing start just 30 years ago, when poker-playing Ernie Harrison, chief executive of a military radio manufacturer called Racal, bet everything he had on the future of mobile telephony. At a time when other electronics companies thought it too uncertain a prospect to bother trying to compete against the monopolistic British Telecom, Harrison and his colleague

Charm-y Carney shows his bookish side

Mark Carney’s charm offensive continues. I hear that the new governor of the Bank of England was laying it on thick last week when he bumped into Faisal Islam, Channel Four’s Economics Editor, after he gave his first public speech. ‘Don’t you have a book out?’ The Canadian smoothy asked Faisal, who offered to send him a copy. ‘Well I’ve got an idea, how about I buy one?’ The charmer cooed. ‘I’d be honoured, governor.’ Faisal beamed. ‘Hey,’ replied the governor, ‘I said I’d buy it; I didn’t say I’d read it!’ Faisal tells me that Carney ‘might have turned down Osborne’s advances if he’d read the full gory detail

The Closing of the Nationalist Mind

A paper with the title Scottish Independence: Issues and Questions; Regulation, Supervision, Lender of Last Resort and Crisis Management is not one liable to set pulses racing on the streets of Auchtermuchty. Or anywhere else, for that matter. Nevertheless it is a matter of some importance. The paper, published by the David Hume Institute, was written by Professor Brian Quinn and reported upon by Bill Jamieson in today’s Scotsman. According to Quinn, who is an expert of some standing in these matters, a currency union between Scotland and the remainder of the United Kingdom would – or at least has the potential to be – sub-optimal. Actually we might already suspect that’s

The creepy cult of Mark Carney

Of all the qualities one hopes for in a Bank of England Governor – a brilliant mind, the courage to tell politicians they are wrong, supernatural foresight – coolness is not among them. I don’t mean coolness under pressure; clearly that helps. I mean the ability to project a hip image. The new Bank of England Governor may well be a terrific economist. More than that, however, he is a first-rate media brand. He’s more Blair than Blair. Hell, he’s more Blair than Cameron. Last weekend, he went to the Wilderness Festival, aka ‘poshstock’, and the press seems to have taken that as proof that things are going to get

Interest rates set to stay low for the foreseeable future

Mark Carney made his mark this morning. Moments ago, he opened his inflation report and issued his ‘forward guidance’, which is designed to make the markets aware of his long-term plans for interest rates. This is important because, although there are signs of life in the British economy (and Carney was cautious about them), inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, the base interest rate remains rooted to the floor and unemployment remains high at around 8 per cent. There is also the question of Britain’s mounting debts, the answer to which will largely depend on how the bond markets react to this and other announcements. And then there is

Dear Justin Welby – here’s how you can really take on Wonga

I’ve been in the pulpit again, this time to salute the centenary of the death of Charles Norris Gray, a formidable Victorian vicar of my Yorkshire town of Helmsley. Gray was a social activist with strong opinions on everything from sanitation to election candidates, and he did a great deal of good for his parish — so I’m not averse to the idea of churchmen intervening in worldly affairs, and I think Archbishop Justin Welby was right to highlight the parasitical nature of ‘payday lenders’ such as Wonga, even if he was subsequently embarrassed to discover that the Church of England was an indirect investor in it. But by his

Colonial rule: Why Aussies, Kiwis and Canadians are running Britain

Last month, David Cameron convened a meeting of his most important advisers at Chequers. The Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the Conservative party chairman were all present, but there was little doubt who was in charge. The Australian strategist Lynton Crosby was dominant, doling out orders and drawing up ‘action points’. One of those in the room recalls: ‘Lynton was fantastic. He made sure there was an agenda, that everyone stuck to it.’ It might seem odd for an Aussie to be telling the British PM what to do, especially in this most English of settings, but it’s mainly because of his nationality that the ‘Wizard of Oz’ gets to

Martin Vander Weyer

Don’t blame the baby boomers – they had it tough too

Here’s a competition for you: ‘The most irritating discussion on Radio 4 in the past month.’ Answers in not more than 140 characters — but on a proper postcard, preferably written in fountain pen. My own choice was an edition of The Moral Maze that heaped abuse on ‘Baby Boomers’ (usually understood as those born in the decade after the second world war, including me as a happy arrival of January 1955) for ‘raiding their kids’ piggy-banks’ and other offences of ‘generational theft’. The argument — vehemently made by the former Labour policy guru Matthew Taylor, and rebutted by Melanie Phillips when she could get a word in — is

The world is better off without Marc Rich – but his heirs still control the price of almost everything

Marc Rich, the godfather of global commodity trading who died last week, ‘deserves credit as one of the greatest creators and sharers of wealth in business history’, wrote James Breiding in the Financial Times in a counterblast to obituarists who had painted the secretive Swiss-based billionaire and former fugitive from US justice as ‘a flamboyant, tax-evading crook’. Bill Clinton certainly saw the better angel in Rich’s nature, granting a presidential pardon for his embargo-busting dealings with Iran against all precedent and advice. But leaving aside the unpatriotic oil trades and the unpaid taxes (not to mention the former Mrs Rich’s timely donation to the Clinton Library), is Breiding right to

What can we expect from Mark Carney?

What the Mark Carney era may offer is a little bit more predictability on monetary policy. Under Mervyn King the main guidance came from the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report press conferences, MPC minutes, and speeches by committee members. Under the Bank’s new remit, set by the Chancellor in the March budget, it’s likely that Carney, like Bernanke, will seek to link interest rates and monetary policy directly to growth and jobs targets There will be subtle changes but no one, as economists at HSBC have noted, is expecting ‘shock and awe’. The big question for Carney is which indicators to use as targets. The runners are unemployment (as in the US), real

If they want another woman to depict on bank notes, how about Margaret Thatcher?

Jane Austen is a ‘contingency character’, we have just learnt. In his last appearance as Governor of the Bank of England before the Treasury Select Committee of the House of Commons, Sir Mervyn King explained that the great novelist rather slightingly so described stands in reserve to feature on any of our bank notes if too many people succeed in counterfeiting the current occupants. She is also in the running for the ten-pound note when Charles Darwin relinquishes it. This is a hot issue, because the notes do not feature enough women, we are told — despite the fact that since 1952, 100 per cent of them have featured a woman

Martin Vander Weyer

No one liked Mervyn King – but history could yet be on his side

Sir Mervyn King was his own man to the end: professorial, downbeat, against the tide. At last week’s Mansion House dinner — as in his final vote in favour of more QE, on which his Monetary Policy Committee colleagues bade him farewell by defeating him six to three — he was still worrying about a potential reversal of the fragile recovery. Even as he packs his collection of Aston Villa programmes and MPC minutes into plastic crates, the prospect of collateral damage from another euro-storm will be furrowing his brow. So his last speech as Governor was short on jokes and long on warnings: about ‘unfinished business’ and lessons unlearned,

Is Mark Carney about to bring Osborne’s cheap debt party to a close?

If free and open markets are the Wild West, inhabited by roving bands of asset managers, hedge funds, investment bankers and random traders, then the sheriffs are the central bankers. A change of sheriff makes a real difference to trading conditions. The focus of London traders and analysts has already shifted to a new sheriff with the arrival of Mark Carney at the Bank of England next week, and much anticipation of his new tool of ‘forward guidance’, which he is expected to unveil in August. Central bankers, far more than politicians, have long held sway over financial markets. That influence is at its greatest at times of economic tumult.

Sir Mervyn King to Mark Carney: You’re Worth It!

Sir Mervyn King held an emotional farewell with the Treasury Select Committee this morning ahead of his move from the Bank of England to the House of Lords. Committee chair Andrew Tyrie was as keen to recruit him as a supporter of banking reforms going through Parliament in the future as he was to grill the outgoing Governor: in fact, all the of the MPs on this often incisive committee were reasonably gentle with the man known as Merv the Swerv. As part of his farewell, he gave some advice to his successor which sounded a little bit like a L’Oréal advert: ‘Well, I have no intention of giving public

Stephen Hester was pushed out of RBS for telling politicians the truth

Quite a spell of bowling from the Chancellor last week, skittling Stephen Hester’s stumps at RBS and causing Paul Tucker of the Bank of England to walk even before the new Canadian umpire had time to raise his finger. The kindest thing to be said about Hester’s innings (enough of the cricket already) is that he made a pretty good stab at bringing RBS back from the dead in the face of fierce political pressure, given that he was never really the right man for the job. By this I mean that even his admirers regard him more as a natural ‘chief financial officer’ — the number-crunching post he previously

To save the High Street, sack Mary Portas and slash business rates

On my way to chair a town meeting, I was chuckling over Phillip Warner’s cartoon last week headed ‘Mary Portas reinvigorates the High Street’. First, TV’s sharp-tongued queen of retail holds forth in front of a row of abandoned shops; then townsfolk dance in the street at the news that she has ‘buggered off in a taxi’. Call me an old cynic, but I think turning stars into tsars is a sign of Downing Street desperation: witness Alan Sugar’s lame stint as ‘enterprise champion’ in the dying days of Gordon Brown, and wince at James Caan from Dragon’s Den tackling social mobility. What I heard from the people of my