Austerity

George Osborne has seen the light on tax cuts. Now he needs to implement some more

George Osborne has not been a complete disappointment as Chancellor. He has, it is depressing to note, ended up giving Britain a leisurely ten years to get back in the black while the national debt soars. He has a worrying enthusiasm for finding new ways of hawking underpriced debt to business and homebuyers. But the British recovery is now gathering pace, Britain has more jobs than ever, and if you trawl the small print of his Budget statements, you can find a number of things that Osborne is getting right. He has stuck to his plan to shed hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs. And what Ed Balls dismissed

Ireland’s back, and luck had nothing to do with it

My man in Dublin calls with joy in his voice to tell me ‘the Troika’ — the combined powers of the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF — have signed off Ireland as fit to leave their bailout programme and return to economic self-determination. This is a remarkable turnaround in just three years since I visited the Irish capital in the midst of rescue talks — to find a nation in shock, staring at an €85 billion emergency loan facility that equated to €20,000 per citizen, a collapsing banking system and a landscape scarred by delusional, never-to-be-finished property developments. In the special Irish way, almost everyone I spoke to

George Osborne’s big idea

What are the Ashes? This question was put to former England cricket captain Ted Dexter, the guest of honour at the launch last night of the writer and broadcaster Simon Hughes’s latest book. Dexter replied that the Ashes is an idea; the terms of engagement that had united two sporting nations in rivalry for nearly 150 years. Few things in life are more durable than a simple idea. The idea of ‘austerity’ drives our political debate and yesterday’s spending review has extended the life of the idea deep into the next parliament. It is a political concept rather than a purely economic issue. It used to allow the government and Labour to define themselves broadly

Wasted! How ‘Austerity Osborne’ is still squandering billions

When the Chancellor stands up to present his spending review next Wednesday it will be with the reputation of a crazed axeman. Much of the country, whether it thinks it a good thing or not, subscribes to the belief that George Osborne is shrinking the state year-on-year, slicing here, chopping there. In a recent poll 58 per cent of respondents agreed with the proposition that Osborne’s ‘austerity drive’ is ‘harming the economy’. Twenty per cent agreed that it was the ‘correct medicine’. Yet it was a trick question based on a faulty premise: that there has been an austerity drive. The truth is that public spending has risen under this

Reinhart and Rogoff’s faulty spreadsheet doesn’t destroy the case for austerity

Economists should always leave themselves a margin for error. When challenged that free-market policies on both sides of the Atlantic in the 1980s led straight from boom to bust, Milton Friedman argued that problems arose not when politicians applied his prescriptions too dogmatically, but because they only ever did so half-heartedly. John Maynard Keynes, the high priest of big government, changed his mind ‘when the facts change’ and was so magisterially flexible that he was able to express ‘deeply moved agreement’ with the moral stance of The Road to Serfdom, Friedrich Hayek’s sermon against the tyranny of the over-powerful state. The Harvard professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, by contrast,

Budget Day: should our times really be called ‘the age of austerity’?

It is Budget Day. Prepare for another barrage of “messages” about the virtues or perils, depending on your point of view, of ‘austerity’. From where has this ubiquitous term come? And should it apply to our times? Dot Wordsworth, our language columnist, has some answers: ‘If we are invited to think we are experiencing austerity, despite the heaps of cheap clothes in Primark or expensive food in Waitrose, then it is Mr Cameron’s doing. In April 2009, not so long ago, at the Conservative spring conference (that needless enterprise) he promised an ‘age of austerity’. In the same speech he promised a ‘People’s Right To Know’, a plan under which

Austerity hits home in the North East of England

Have you personally suffered from George Osborne’s spending cuts? Your answer depends largely on where you live. I’ve witnessed both over the past few days. This Christmas, I’m enjoying my first prolonged stay away from London in some time and the impact of austerity in the North East has really struck me. First to note is spending cuts in local government. In this part of the world, the public sector is a vast beast. The Guardian reported in 2010 34 per cent of the total employment in Newcastle upon Tyne is in the public sector, one of the top 15 councils in the country. The authorities of Sunderland, Northumberland, North Tyneside and Darlington all have above-national average

The Austerity Myth

On the global scale of hackish irritation, the American left’s persistent determination to misdiagnose the reasons behind Britain’s faltering economy cannot be considered the most grievous pundit-crime. Nevertheless, it remains annoying. Here, for instance, is Joe Klein: Word now comes that Great Britain has slipped back into recession after several years of David Cameron’s austerity experiment. It seems, yet again, that John Maynard Keynes has been proven right. Real Keynesianism–government deficit spending–is essential when economies go bottom up. This can mean more government programs or lower taxes, or a combination of the two. That would seem to be plain vanilla logic, right? But you’d be amazed how many otherwise intelligent people

An Irish Recovery?

I think it’s tiresome the way countries in desperate economic trouble are treated as lab rats by pundits far away whose sole interest in their travails lies in their providing an argument to buttress favoured policies back home. It’s a pretty grim game, really. So when Paul Krugman spends a summer writing about Ireland’s enforced austerity he’s not really writing about Ireland at all. He’s arguing about the United States and never mind what the hell happens to the poor, miserable Irish. The worse things go for them, the better they go for the Krugman school. Tyler Cowen documents all this rather neatly. This doesn’t mean that a return to

George Osborne’s Difficulty

Summed-up by the Economist in a single chart. When you consider that many people support spending cuts in principle but tend to oppose them when they target particular favourite programmes you may appreciate that the government faces a fairly acute political problem. That’s before you consider the practical difficulties of really cutting spending. In its way, all this is also a bleak testament to the consequences of a dozen years of Labour rule and, one might add, to the Tories’ belated conversion to restraining government spending.

Provocation of the Day

Andrew Sullivan issues it: Obama reminds me of a one-nation Tory, refitted for the austerity era. David Cameron would fit very easily into his cabinet, and vice-versa. I fancy some of this magazine’s readers, to say nothing of less literate parts, headbangers True Believers elsewhere on the Tory right, worry Andrew may be right about this. I’m not so sure. I think Cameron’s instincts are very different from Obama’s but that each has been forced to compromise by unyielding events. If, by some chance, they had been in power 15 years ago I suspect their similarities, such as they are, would have seemed relatively trivial compared to their differences. Nevertheless,

Alex Massie

Economists vs Politicians

Tyler Cowen has a fairly downbeat assessment of the UK economy’s likely future performance (manufacturing base eroded, tourism not enough, too dependent on finance etc) but he makes a pair of characteristically good points about trimming public spending: 1. The case for the cuts is not that they will spur growth, but rather forestall a future disaster.  That’s hard to test.  A second part of the case is that not many political windows for the cuts will be available; that’s hard to test too.  On that basis, it’s fine to call the case for the cuts underestablished, but that’s distinct from claiming that poor gdp performance shows the cuts to

Much ado about Brussels, bailouts and budgets

The news that the European Union has decreed that its Budget be increased by 4.9 percent in 2012 ties a knot in the stomach, as I ponder an Easter weekend spent in Margate rather than Majorca due to austerity. As Tim Montgomerie notes, the government is taking this opportunity to assert its euroscepticism. Stern communiqués are being worded; stark warnings are being issued. Behind the scenes, the government has joined with the Dutch, its closest ally on the Continent, to confront the avaricious Commission. Patrick Wintour reports that the French will also oppose the proposed Budget, and the Austrians, Danes, Swedes, Finns and Belgians are expected to lend their weight

Dissecting operation Coulson

Tom Baldwin’s inaugeration as Labour spin guru occasions Tim Montgomerie to appraise Andy Coulson. For many, Coulson has committed the spin doctor’s cardinal sin and become the story, and not just his more voluble opponents on the left. Tim rejects that analysis, but concedes that Coulson may drift to pastures new in 2011. Coulson’s record is quite impressive. He snared the tabloid press, and, together with George Osborne, ended Gordon Brown’s short honeymoon, exposing the Labour leader’s indecision with well-timed tax cut promises. The Election That Never Was spawned a far more enduring theme: Labour’s internal fissures and the timidity of its senior figures. If Coulson goes, that will be his

The End of the Party?

Following this post on Fianna Fail, a Dublin correspondent cautions against underestimating the stubbornness of their hold upon the people: Fianna Fail will rise again. For two reasons: i) Fine Gael and Labour may need the support of lots of other parties to get anything done. The scope for internal disagreement is immense. It is likely that they will lose popular support very quickly if they preside over savage cuts, which they will have to do; ii) For those of us old enough to remember, Fianna Fail acted like thugs in opposition. They opposed everything (including the Anglo-Irish Agreement) and whipped up popular hysteria against the government over the smallest

To Solve The Irish Question, Ireland Must First Admit there Is a Question

Alas, poor Hibernia. According to RTE, Brian Cowen Denies Any Bailout Talks. The rest of the world is not so easily fooled, however. These may be “technical” discussions but they’re not discussing the finer points of hurling, are they? Among the more creative solutions to Ireland’s predicament: rejoin sterling. According to Mark Reckless, Tory MP for Rochester: Every MP I have spoken to says they would be happy for Ireland to have a guaranteed seat on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. This would mean that, unlike before 1979, Ireland as a sovereign country would have a proper say in setting sterling interest rates. When we raised the idea

Another Irish Loser: Alex Salmond

There are precious few heroes in Ireland today and no gods either. But not all the losers are Irish either. Some are Scottish. Chief among them, Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party. Not because an independent Scotland would necessarily have been destroyed by the financial tsunami that swept the globe (though, to put it mildly, it would have been “difficult” to cope and might well have required a humiliating begging-trip to London) but because an independent Scotland would have made some of the same mistakes and unfortunate assumptions that have helped cripple poor Hibernia. Europe, you see, was an important part of the SNP’s slow rise to power. At

Alex Massie

“It’s a Very Bad Thing When Economists Start to be Interesting”

Yes it is. Despite what the Irish government says, it’s now surely a matter of when Ireland has a bailout forced upon it. We left “if” behind some time ago. Even the non-denial denials are specific enough to be revealing. As Shane Ross put it on Sunday, “The game is up.”  Perhaps it won’t happen today and pehaps it won’t be tomorrow but it will happen soon. And the worst of it is that it’s not really about Ireland at all. The history of the Greek and Irish experiences (for all their differences) suggests that saving one patient merely endangers the next sickly country in the waiting room. None of