Afghanistan

A day in NATO’s wars

It was a classic gaffe. Andrew Mitchell’s briefing notes have been photographed outside Downing Street and, according to Sky, they say that the government “welcomes the fact that Hamid Karzai is leaving office” in Afghanistan. This is not altogether surprising. Karzai has already indicated that he will not seek a third term and is expected to stand down in 2014. While the usually fraught relations between NATO and Karzai have been deteriorated further as his administration continues in its corrupt ways. But Mitchell’s slip will probably intensify the speculation that the Western allies are already preparing for the post-Karzai and post-NATO era by talking to, among others, the Taliban. At the moment, though, there seems

A black anniversary

Even after 10 years, Afghanistan still has the capacity to shock. Details of the attack on Kabul are vague, but it seems that a posse of Taliban fighters dressed in “military garb” walked into the offices of the British Council and the United Nations; three people were killed in the ensuing explosions and fire-fights between security forces and insurgents. As I write, reports suggest that one Islamist is still alive and shooting in the British Council, while other explosions have been heard across the capital this morning. Taliban spokesmen have confirmed that they had carried out the attack to mark the 92nd anniversary of Afghanistan’s independence from Britain. But they

An American context for UK defence cuts

Yesterday’s defence select committee report provoked stern critiques of the government’s defence policy from Alex Massie and Matt Cavanagh. It is hard to dissent from Matt’s view that Cameron, Fox and Osborne will be defined to some extent by how they handle the defence brief, which, as Alex points out, also proved to be Gordon Brown’s undoing.  It is also clear, as both Matt and Alex say, that the SDSR suggests that Britain is entering a period of ‘strategic shrinkage’, in terms of the size of the defence establishment at any rate. A political squall has erupted over this, but it’s worth pointing out that western countries are narrowing their military

Bomb blast near the Norwegian Prime Minister’s office

  A reportedly enormous bomb blast has shaken the PM’s office and the oil ministry in Oslo, the Norwegian police confirm. Reports have confirmed that the Norwegian Prime Minister is safe, but it’s not clear if he’s un-injured. Early reports suggested that this might be a gas explosion, but those were discounted because there is no mains gas supply in Oslo. Norway’s state broadcaster has confirmed that one person has died, with more than 8 injured. Fortunately, it is the height of Norway’s holiday season and there were few people about. The Norwegian police, however, warn that there are other casualties being treated. Details remain vague. There also appears to have been at least one

Missing the target

It has been a mixed week for Parliamentary Select Committees: they have regained some of their bite, but recent events have also served to remind us of their supine performances in the past. Yesterday it was the turn of the Defence Committee to seek our attention, briefing their latest report on the British military campaign in Helmand to the Sunday Telegraph. Under the headline ‘British Force Was Too Weak to Defeat Taliban’, we read of ‘a devastating report’ which is ‘deeply critical of senior commanders and government ministers’. But, the Committee have got some fairly crucial things wrong. They conclude that the task force was ‘capped at 3,150 for financial

Making the peace is a risky business

The UN has lifted sanctions on 14 Taliban leaders, the strongest indication yet that the international community is opening a negotiated settlement with elements of the Afghan insurgency. Indeed, Germany’s UN ambassador said the move “sends a strong signal: the Security Council and the international community support the efforts of the Afghan government to engage reconciled Taliban in a political dialogue in order to achieve peace and security in Afghanistan.” There are serious concerns about engaging with the insurgency, which, though amorphous, shares common ground in its unreconstructed religious extremism. Renowned war correspondent Dexter Filkins has written of the resilient Taliban’s mounting aggression. The instability that their action causes is

It was the Times wot won it

The latest issue of the Spectator features an article in qualified defence of Rupert Murdoch by William Shawcross, author of Murdoch: the Making of a Media Empire. In it, Shawcross writes: ‘Simon Jenkins, now a Guardian columnist, wrote before the current horrors that Murdoch ‘is the best thing that ever happened to the British media and they hate it.’ He was right. There are obviously many things wrong with Murdoch’s group, but without his epic victory over the print unions in the 1980s, there would be far fewer papers in Britain today. Murdoch means pluralism…Who else would have subsidised the huge losses of the Times, an excellent paper, for so

Karzai’s brother shot dead

The half-brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai has just been murdered outside his fortified compound in Kandahar. Ahmed Wali Karzai was the political kingpin in Kandahar province, formally serving as head of the provincial council. I am told by officials that he was killed by one of his bodyguards at a checkpoint; the killer was then shot dead by other bodyguards. A senior FCO official has said that David Cameron would want to give his condolences on a “personal basis” to President Karzai for his loss. That said, many people in the British government will not be all that unhappy with the demise of Wali Karzai – or “AWK”, as

Where next for the US and Pakistan?

The US-Pakistani relationship is fast deteriorating. In May, I argued that unless President Asif Ali Zardari took decisive action against the ISI, the country’s military would continue to undermine relations with the West. Last week, the New York Times reached the same conclusion, calling for the removal of Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha. As President Zardari did nothing — probably fearing a military coup if he did act — the situation has merely been aggravated. What’s more, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that the US could suspend military aid to Pakistan unless it took unspecified steps to help find and fight terrorists. And the White House has since confirmed

The Afghan conflict creates other conflicts for Cameron

Another day, yesterday, to remind us of the precariousness of everything in Afghanistan. With David Cameron in the country, it was announced, first, that a British soldier had gone missing from his base; and, then, that the same soldier had been found dead with gunshot wounds. “His exact cause of death is still to be established,” said a spokesman, “and the circumstances surrounding his disappearance and death are currently under investigation.” His is the 375th British military death in the country since operations began. And, of course, the politics quiver on in the background. There had been reports at the weekend (£) that up to 800 more British troops could

What will emerge from the ashes in Afghanistan?

On Monday, James drew attention to Dexter Filkins’ stark assessment of the situation in Afghanstan and of the strength of the Taliban. Today, the attack on a hotel in Kabul gives that assessment a fresh and tragic resonance. What we seem to be witnessing is the Taliban, or at least elements of them, flaunting their murderous intent as the West prepares to leave the country. From the assassination of General Daud to this Mumbai-style raid, their methods are becoming more ambitious, more headline-grabbing. Around ten innocents are said to have been killed this time around, along with six to seven of the Islamist militiamen. Every death, of course, raises doubts

Afghanistan: The worries mount as the West prepares to drawdown

Dexter Filkins is one of the great war correspondents of the post 9/11 world. So it is particularly sobering to read his assessment of the Afghan situation as the West prepares to drawdown. Filkins reports that: “According to American officers, the level of violence in Afghanistan this year is fifteen per cent higher than it was at this time last year. The insurgents, far from being degraded, appear to be as resilient as ever. And their sanctuaries in Pakistan, where the Taliban leadership resides mostly unmolested, remain more or less intact.” Compounding this problem is that the levels of corruption in the Afghan government are continuing to alienate the population.

Whitehall’s monolith faces reform

The Ministry of Defence is one of Whitehall’s largest and most dysfunctional departments; and it has long resisted effective reform. However, the parlous public finances dictate that reform take place. 8 per cent Budget cuts have to be delivered, while attempting to bring a £36bn black hole under control. Strategic retrenchment aside, efficiency is Liam Fox’s most potent weapon. To that end, Lord Levene has conducted an examination into departmental structures. Levene reports that the MoD’s maze of committees and sub-committees should be ripped-up to improve decision making and save money (and perhaps one of the ministry’s five ministers of state). ‘Sound financial management,’ he says ‘must be at the

In the firing line | 26 June 2011

Talk about an own goal. Whatever Air Chief Marshall Sir Simon Bryant thought he was achieving when he told MPs that the RAF were “running hot” because of the Libya intervention, the result has been to fuel the debate about the appropriate role of military officers in the public debate – and, in the latest instalment of the debate, if the current military leadership is actually up to the job. It is an important question – nothing should be taboo in a democracy and since Britain has none of the parliamentary oversight that the US congress has over military leaders, this debate is an important form of scrutiny. In my

Abusing Winston

Whenever an American conservative uses Winston Churchill to make a cheap political point you can be sure there’s nincompoopery on the way. Hats off to Peter Kirsanow for this contribution to the file: In 1940, Churchill appeared before the House of Commons and described Britain’s goal in World War II: “I can answer in one word: victory; victory at all costs, victory despite all terror; victory, however long and hard the road may be; for without victory there is no survival.” This hyperbolic rube was too unsophisticated to appreciate that the goal doesn’t apply to overseas contigency [sic] operations or kinetic military actions.  I’m sure you too are persuaded by the

Obama draws down his forces

It is as Matt Cavanagh predicted in his article for Coffee House, a few weeks ago. Barack Obama has decided to pull 10,000 of the 30,000 American “surge” troops out of Afghanistan this year. The remaining 20,000 will be outtathere by next summer. “Drawdown,” is the word that the US President used in his address last night, and it is happening at quite a pace. He presented this approach as a victory, suggesting that America has already achieved most of its goals in the country, and that “the tide of war is receding”. But there were one or two revealing notes of concession. “We will not try to make Afghanistan

Miliband’s myopia

The Prime Minister declared war at PMQs today. Not once but twice in the same sentence. ‘We’re at war in Libya and in Afghanistan,’ he said, in a throwaway footnote to some ritual noises about his ‘huge respect for our armed forces.’ Until this historic moment Britain had been engaged in peace-keeping and nation-building in Afghanistan, and in civilian protection and tyrant-bothering in Libya. But now it’s official. We’re mobilised on two fronts. Ed Miliband might have made more of this but he was too busy mentally preparing himself for this week’s shock ambush. This week’s shock ambush wasn’t quite as shocking as it might have been because it had

How the IMF might save Afghanistan from its leaders

The International Monetary Fund used to be hated, blamed for the privatisation programmes it imposed across the world in exchange for loans. Then it spent a decade in relative obscurity. Now, as countries like Greece are forced to beg for loans, the Bretton Woods institution has again become a popular bogeyman. Every Greek protester thinks that all would be well if only their government had a Love, Actually moment and told the IMF where to go. But the IMF — with its hard-nosed, unsentimental policies — is often what is needed to save governments from themselves. Take Afghanistan. As The Guardian reported yesterday, the Afghan government will struggle to pay

Clashing by night

Cables from Kabul is Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles’s valedictory account of his years as ambassador to Kabul (2007-9) and as this country’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (2009-10). Cables from Kabul is Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles’s valedictory account of his years as ambassador to Kabul (2007-9) and as this country’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (2009-10). A long telegram reporting on the ramp ceremony for a fallen soldier, Corporal Damian Stephen Lawrence of the 2nd Battalion, the Yorkshire Regiment, opens the book. It is a beautiful piece, describing the service — ‘in the best traditions of lapidary Anglicanism. Plenty of dignity but not too much religion’ — and the military

Will Pakistan’s politics help al-Qaeda’s new leader?

Just as any major employer would, al-Qaeda released a statement earlier to confirm the identity of its new boss. “Sheikh Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, may God guide him,” it read, “assumed responsibility as the group’s amir.” And just in case you were wondering whether the organisation’s attitude would change with its leadership, it added: “We ask God for this to be a new era for al-Qaeda under the leadership of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, an era that will purify Muslim land of every tyrant and infidel.” Which is to say: new leader, same danger. The appointment of Zawahiri comes as little surprise, even if there has been talk of divide and dissent within