2015 general election

It seems every week now there is a story about France and/or Germany ruling out EU treaty change and thereby putting pay to David Cameron’s EU reform push before it has even really begun. While this makes for good headlines, the reality is much more nuanced. Take today’s example: A leaked preliminary draft of a Franco-German paper on Eurozone reform reported by Le Monde and picked up by the Guardian, stated that in the short term (the next few years) the countries will focus on working within the EU treaties, which has been seen as a blow to Cameron’s reform push. There are some important points to keep in mind

The government’s announcement that EU migrants will not be able to vote in the EU referendum tells us a number of things about the way David Cameron is approaching this vote. Firstly, he’s keen to show everyone that he’s getting on with it – indeed, the Prime Minister seems reinvigorated on all fronts at the moment – and making announcements about the franchise is just one example of that. The second is that Cameron does not want the debate about the referendum to be one of an Establishment stitch-up. Allowing EU citizens to vote would be one way of encouraging such a narrative from certain parts of the ‘Out’ camp.

It isn’t the type of kiss-and-tell story Mr S is used to reading in the Sunday papers, but Lynton Crosby has today spoken about an election smooch he shared with the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Sunday Times reports that George Osborne was so convinced that the Conservatives would not win a majority in the election that he promised to French kiss Crosby if they managed to win enough seats. However, with the party storming to victory, Osborne had to honour his promise and kiss Crosby. The election strategist confirmed the incident to the paper: ‘It’s true. His aftershave still haunts me. Fortunately tongues remained withdrawn. The pledge was on election day. The consummation

During the election campaign the Telegraph reported that Nicola Sturgeon wanted David Cameron to remain Prime Minister, after a memo was leaked to them which included an account of a private conversation between Sturgeon and the French Ambassador. Naturally, the SNP leader was furious and demanded an inquiry. The Cabinet Office has now finished their investigation and concluded that the former Scotland Secretary Alistair Carmichael and his spad Euan Roddin were responsible for the leak. When asked about the leak at the time, Carmichael said that ‘The first I heard of this was when I received a phone call from a journalist’: Interestingly, the Cabinet Office has confirmed that the memo did exist and the civil servant believes it was an accurate representation of Sturgeon’s conversation:

Although Jeremy Paxman spent several decades working for the BBC, the presenter took an opportunity at a Royal Television Society talk today to cast doubt over its future. With the BBC’s charter renewal looming, the former Newsnight presenter said that the TV licence ‘can’t last’: ‘As platforms become interchangeable, as computers and televisions become indistinguishable, a tax on the ownership of a particular piece of technology becomes very, very hard to justify, I would say almost impossible.’ Paxman even went so far as to suggest that the new culture secretary – and BBC enemy number one – John Whittingdale could be ‘terribly good’ for the Beeb. Given that Whittingdale previously described the licence fee as ‘worse

During this election, every newspaper endorsed the party that most of their readers support – with two exceptions. The Independent and the Evening Standard, who have left-leaning readerships, both backed the Tories (in the Indy’s case, the coalition). A bold decision for the proprietor, Evgeny Lebedev, given that the endorsement divided readers and staff alike. But anyway he had plenty to celebrate on the day after the election: a Tory majority government and his own 35th birthday. Mr S gathers that a lavish party was held, attended by his closest friends: Emma Watson, Monica Lewinsky, Salma Hayek and… none other than David Cameron. Mr S contacted representatives for both Lebedev and

Jim Murphy is quitting Scottish Labour. After only narrowly surviving a vote of no confidence from the party’s executive this morning, Murphy announced that after a ‘terrible election defeat’, he will still tender his resignation in a month’s time. As well as acknowledging Scottish Labour’s terrible performance in the general election, Murphy opened both barrels at Len McCluskey and Unite the Union, who he blames for some of the party’s troubles in Scotland: ‘I know in the past few days, I’ve been at the centre of a campaign by the London leadership of Unite the Union and they’re blaming myself for myself and the Scottish Labour party for the defeat

Lord Ashcroft has likened the current state of the polling industry with that of the Liberal Democrats, but he could quite have easily chosen the Labour party as a comparison. All are in the post-mortem stage: pondering how they got the election so wrong and desperately searching for the path back to public credibility. More than ten companies provided regular national polls during the campaign, but it was Lord Ashcroft who offered the most detail on specific marginal seats. The reputation of the once-reviled peer had been reinvigorated through a £3 million operation that surveyed an impressive 167 constituencies. His freely available research seemed to give more detail than ever

Ed Milband and his team were not ready for their major defeat on election night. On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Dan Hodges discusses the final days of Miliband’s leadership with Andrew Harrop of the Fabian Society. What were the majority mistakes of the Labour campaign? Was vital polling information about his seat kept from Ed Balls? Will Labour be able to regenerate into a party ready to govern within five years? Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth also discuss the first week of the new Conservative government and the challenges facing David Cameron. Few in the Tory party were expecting a majority, so how will the ideological vacuum be filled?

Almost four million people voted for Ukip on 7 May. That, in itself, is an astonishing achievement for a party which is a) newish and b) endured more vilification than even Ed Miliband had to put up with, from both the press and of course the BBC. It would be nice to think that at some point we will get over our obsession with the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon – and start taking Ukip as seriously as we do the Nats. Or, almost three times more seriously, if we wish to be properly democratic. Ukip was crucial to the Conservative victory, taking enormous numbers of votes from Labour supporters north of Watford. Labour

I was at the IEA/Taxpayers’ Alliance post-election conference yesterday, listening to Lord Ashcroft giving facts and figures about why voters chose the Tories. Given how wrong all of the pollsters were, I did find myself wondering whether it was worth listening to this. A Tory majority government has just been elected, confounding every single bookmaker and pollster in the land. As Ashcroft was telling us that X per cent of Tories believed in Y sentiment, I thought: statistically, what percentage of these statistics are pure bollocks? How many of the polls I’ve been reporting for the last few weeks and months have been pure bollocks? So I gave up listening to Ashcroft’s conclusions and thought, instead, of a Walt