Taking the temperature in Westminster today, it appears that Theresa May doesn’t have much more of a chance of winning the meaningful vote than she did when she pulled it before Christmas. The mood has improved a bit for her deal, but by nowhere near enough for her to pass it. Indeed, interestingly the full bore Brexiteers appear to be embracing ‘no deal’ more firmly than before. Boris Johnson’s Daily Telegraph column today is striking for the willingness with which it embraces no deal, rather than just arguing for a pivot to Canada.
I understand that the Government expects the EU’s pre-vote help to come towards the end of this week. But there is a sense that if Brussels is going to offer something genuinely significant, that will come before the second vote that many in the EU are expecting.
Theresa May herself is expected to close the debate on the meaningful vote next week: though Number 10 are saying no final decision on this has been taken. But it is worth remembering that there is the possibility of an amendment being put down which would, essentially, neuter the meaningful vote.