The signatures are now in. Theresa May will have to ask whether her best chance of survival comes in promising to resign – but not just yet. She must now decide whether to set out a timetable for her departure ahead of this evening.
If she wins the vote, she cannot be challenged for another year. There, though, are a decent number of Tories MPs who don’t want her gone now, but do want her to leave soon after March 29th. They would like a new PM in place for the 2nd round of the Brexit negotiations.
So what are they to do if tonight’s confidence vote? If May gives no indication that she will go before party conference next year, some of these MPs might tip into the no confidence column – making this contest a closer than expected affair.
More news when we get it.