If I were a Tory MP, I would be worried by the timing of this vote, but, given that it is happening, I would think the following:
1. She’s trying to bounce me by making me vote tonight.
2. This is the last chance for a year, because Theresa May is rule-bound and not one to take hints.
3. I do not, in fact, have confidence in her, and so, since I’m being asked, I should say so.
4. Although I do think she is sincere in wishing to deliver what people voted for, we have learnt that she doesn’t know how to do this. We urgently need a Prime Minister who does. I am conscious that there is no guarantee that my vote would bring what I want, but I would reluctantly prefer the uncertainty of a contest to the certainty of Mrs May in Downing Street.