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Why isn’t Theresa May’s conference catastrophe showing in the polls?

9 October 2017

5:38 PM

9 October 2017

5:38 PM

After a lacklustre conference and a disastrous speech, Theresa May’s position within her party has never looked more fragile. But she can take heart that her relationship with the public is a different story entirely.

In a sign that conference is only a headline event for politicos, it appears May’s shaky performance in Manchester has meant diddly squat. An ICM poll claims the Tories have actually gained a point from the whole debacle. Even if you combine the three different polls done since the conference – they show a swing between the main parties of… zero.

 

The findings will come as a blow to Parliamentary plotters such as Grant Shapps, who had hoped to use recent events to push May out. The Prime Minister remains ahead of Jeremy Corbyn by nine-points on the question of would make the best prime minister. What’s more the ICM Poll found that there’s little reason to believe replacing May with another candidate would mean the Conservatives fared much better. The only potential leader the public thought could improve the party’s prospects was ‘someone quite young and able who is not currently in government’.

This is not to say the Conservative party is in good shape. They are still neck-and-neck with Corbyn’s Labour and May’s approval rating is negative. But until the party can locate the in demand ‘someone quite young and able who is not currently in government’, Theresa May’s position looks safer than her critics would have you believe.


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