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Coffee House General Election 2017

Jeremy Corbyn is now bookies’ favourite to be next UK Prime Minister

13 June 2017

3:26 PM

13 June 2017

3:26 PM

Well, this is going well. As the Tories pretend that all will be well under a reprogrammed Maybot, the expectations outside SW1 are rather different. Let’s say someone moves against her, the other candidates start to move too – and before you can say Boris the party has formed another circular firing squad. What happens? What if the Tories can’t keep it together and there’s another general election? The bookies have decided: Jeremy Corbyn is more likely than anyone else to succeed Theresa May. Now the bookies get things wrong almost as regularly as pollsters, but expectation matters a lot in politics – and business. If most Tories think Corbyn is close to power, then this explains their good behaviour. But if businesses also think Britain is close to a far-left populist government then investor sentiment could turn very quickly. So the expectation starts to form the reality. So yes, the bookies odds are almost certainly wrong. But yes, expectation matters.


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