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Coffee House US Election

Has Hillary Clinton already got it in the bag?

8 November 2016

2:43 PM

8 November 2016

2:43 PM

Washington, DC

Unless something crazy is happening — and of course, 2016 is the year of crazy — Hillary Clinton is going to win tonight. ‘Hillary’s got this,’ I heard a former White House staffer say this morning, with breezy confidence. ‘We had a fright last week, but it’s better now.’ That is the shared view of experts and the pollsters here in Washington DC and abroad.


From Washington, Freddy Gray and Marcus Roberts discuss whether Clinton has it in the bag


The level of early voting, the huge surge in Hispanic turnout, and a late uptick in black voters all seem like good news for the Democrats. In nearby Virginia, still considered a battleground state, voter turnout is already looking high — there are huge lines outside the polling booths in Arlington, Virginia, a heavily black area of a closely fought state.  The huge turnout of Latin Americans in Florida suggests she’ll win there, although Trump did dedicate a lot of late activity to winning over voters in the Sunshine State. Florida is worth 29 electoral college votes — more than any other toss-up state —  and so, if the Donald can’t win there, he looks sunk, given Clinton’s advantage everywhere else. 

Clinton has not been able to excite Democrats and independents with her own appeal, but she has been able to mobilise the left and minorities against Donald Trump. In 2008 and 2012, the Democrats deployed their fearsome ‘ground game’ machine to great effect, and the early reports suggest that they have done it again. 

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7im-nov-2016-970x250-v2After the American people have voted, what next for the US and the rest of the world? Join panellists including Sir Christopher Meyer, KCMG, former British ambassador to the US, for a discussion chaired by Andrew Neil on 30 November at RIBA, London. Tickets include a drinks reception. In association with Seven Investment Management. Book now.


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