At the moment, the consensus is that Brexit will be Cameron’s legacy, that the thing people will remember about his premiership is that he called a referendum on the EU and lost it. But I don’t think this will necessarily be the case.
As I argue in the magazine this week, if Brexit — to use a phrase — turns out to be a ‘success’, then that will allow attention to turn to other parts of Cameron’s career. It will allow people to reflect on how, after three successive general-election defeats, he turned the Tories back into the natural party of government. On how he made them more comfortable with modern Britain and more representative of it.
The irony of all this is that Cameron’s legacy depends on him being proved wrong on the dangers of Brexit. The good news for him is that he, broadly, will be.