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Leave six points ahead in latest phone poll

16 June 2016

9:36 AM

16 June 2016

9:36 AM


Fraser Nelson and Nick Cohen discuss The Spectator’s decision to back Brexit:


The Ipsos MORI phone poll released this morning shows a dramatic turnaround since its last poll which had a double digit advantage for Remain. Leave is now six points ahead amongst those likely to vote. This means that Leave has been ahead in 7 out of the last 10 polls and 2 of the last 4 phone polls.

Almost as worrying for the Remain campaign as the headline number is what the internals of the Ipsos MORI poll show. In a change from last month, immigration is now the top issue for people in this referendum, overtaking the economy. Alarmingly for IN, 70% percent of people don’t believe the Treasury’s claim that households wold be £4,300 worse off after Brexit. By contrast, 47% people do believe the Leave’s campaign’s claim that the UK sends £350 million to the EU each week.

The crumb of comfort for Remain in this poll is that 20% of voters might yet change their mind. Now, I say in the pol col this week that Cameron’s closest allies in the campaign are adamant that there will be no change of message in the final week. But things are now getting so serious for Remain that there will be pressure for some change of tack, something to show voters that their concerns have been listened to.


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