An ICM poll released this afternoon shows that 53 per cent of voters are backing Brexit compared to 47 per cent who want Britain to stay in the EU. And just ten days to go until the EU referendum. Today’s poll is further evidence in support of momentum towards Leave: an ICM poll two weeks ago gave a four-point lead to Remain.
The six point lead for Brexit results from the combined ICM online and phone polls. ‘Leave’ is also enjoying a larger margin when the telephone poll is taken in isolation, with the results from this putting ‘Remain’ five points behind (at 45 per cent of voters, compared to 50 per cent backing Brexit and five per cent who have yet to make up their minds). What’s significant about this is that phone polls are widely believed to be more accurate than surveys carried out online.
So whilst last year’s election taught us that the polls aren’t infallible, the ICM data out today still gives the ‘Remain’ camp something to worry about. What’s more, the ICM poll indicates that more voters are now making up their minds about which way they’ll vote. There has been a fall in the number of voters who class themselves as ‘Don’t knows’: on the most recent phone poll, just six per cent said they were not sure, compared to 13 per cent two weeks ago. So with the clock ticking ever closer to June 23rd, it seems that more of those previously sitting on the fence about the EU have now made up their minds – and the bad news for ‘Remain’ is that they’re leaning towards wanting out of the EU.