As Britain goes to the polls to vote on the EU Referendum, the odds on Brexit are plummeting – to a new low of 17 per cent at the time of writing. The Spectator’s zoomable live odds chart, below, shows the speed of the decline. At 9am this morning it was 23pc, at 10.45am it was 19pc and by 11.30am it was 17pc. An hour later, 15pc. The chart should appear below – but while our site is especially busy it may take a few moments to load:
This chimes with the opinion of everyone I’ve spoken to, in both Leave and Remain camps: there’s a chance of Brexit, but not much of a chance. Today’s YouGov poll shows the country evenly balanced, and we also know Leave voters are more likely to turn out than Remain. But then there’s the status quo bias: in referenda, voters are more likely to stick with the devil they know.
Voters have confounded pundits and pollsters plenty times over the last few years. Will they do so again? Stay tuned to Coffee House to find out: we’ll be posting live updates throughout the night.