With opinion polls showing dazzling range – from Leave being 4 points ahead to Remain 13 points ahead – it’s worth looking at the betting markets. The below is a live chart, which will update every time you revisit this page. It updates several times throughout the day.
At the time of writing, the graph underlines a basic point about referenda: no matter what the polls say, the status quo has a huge in-built advantage. Or, at least, a lot of people are betting that voters will stay with the status quo.
Mind you, this time last year, the betting markets gave David Cameron a 10pc chance of winning a majority. Greater than the 0.5 per cent chance given to him by Populus (and I know it’s unfair to single out Andrew Cooper, as his firm simply predicted, as a percentage, what other polls implied) but everyone was pretty wide of the mark. Let’s see if the pollsters, pundits and bookmakers do any better this time.
|Will Britain vote to leave the EU? Can the Tories survive the aftermath? Join James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and Fraser Nelson to discuss at a subscriber-only event at the Royal Institution, Mayfair, on Monday 20 June. Tickets are on sale now. Not a subscriber? Click here to join us, from just £1 a week.|
Subscribe to The Spectator today for a quality of argument not found in any other publication. Get more Spectator for less – just £12 for 12 issues.