When an ICM phone poll this week had Labour level with the Tories for the first time since Jeremy Corbyn became leader, even the pollster cast doubt on the finding. But today, YouGov has Labour ahead by a point—34% to 33%. YouGov’s Anthony Wells says that this suggests ‘something is genuinely afoot’.
Now, as the election reminded us polls are not all seeing. It is also doubtful what the value of a poll is this far out from a general election: Ed Miliband was regularly ahead by large margins during the last parliament and still went on to lose the election. One also suspects that if Labour was being covered like a prospective government its ratings would slide; most voters wouldn’t be too keen of having a Chancellor who cites Marx, Lenin and Trotsky as three of the biggest influences on him.
But this improvement in Labour’s poll position will be seized on by Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters. They will use it to argue that the idea that Corbyn is taking Labour to certain defeat is wrong.