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Updated: The final polls are in — and it’s still neck and neck

7 May 2015

12:35 PM

7 May 2015

12:35 PM

The polling stations open in under 10 hours and the final opinion polls are out. As we’ve seen throughout this campaign, there’s not much variance at all, with all of the pollsters putting Labour and the Tories tied — or with a small lead within the margin of error. There’s a few still to come and we’ll update the list below as they are released:

  • Ipsos MORI: Conservative 36 per cent, Labour 35 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent, Green five per cent
  • ICM: Labour 35 per cent, Conservative 34 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem nine per cent, Green four per cent
  • Lord Ashcroft: Conservative 33 per cent, Labour 33 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent, Green four per cent
  • ComRes: Conservative 34 per cent, Labour 33 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent, Lib Dem nine per cent, Green four per cent
  • YouGov: Conservative 34 per cent, Labour 34 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent, Lib Dem 10 per cent, Green four per cent
  • Survation: Conservative 32 per cent, Labour 32 per cent, Ukip 16 per cent, Lib Dem ten per cent, Green five per cent
  • ICM: Labour 35 per cent, Conservative 34 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem nine per cent, Green four per cent
  • Panelbase: Labour 33 per cent, Conservative 31 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem nine per cent, Green three per cent
    • Opinium: Conservative 35 per cent, Labour 34 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent, Green six per cent

Ipsos MORI and Lord Ashcroft are both due to release final surveys in the morning. We also have a final seat prediction from YouGov president Peter Kellner, based upon their final poll: Conservative 284, Labour 263, SNP 48, Lib Dems 31, Plaid Cymru 3 and Green 1. Based on this, a combination of the Tories and Lib Dems would give a total of 315 – nine short of a Commons majority. A combination of  Labour, the SNP, Greens and Plaid would curiously also produce a total of 315 seats.

So, what is there to conclude? Not a lot, except that there are no outliers and all the pollsters are gathering around the 32-35 region for Labour and the Tories — hoping that at least there won’t be too many eggs on faces when the results are known on Friday. But, there is only one poll that really matters: in 24 hours time, the BBC’s exit poll, conducted by ComRes, will be out. Interestingly, I understand this poll won’t include a swing number, as in previous years. Given the volatility of this election, you can see why. After six weeks of intense campaign, the election is finally upon us. And still, no one has a clue of what is going to happen tomorrow.


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