Three new polls out today have put Labour ahead of the Tories. At a time when the Conservatives are firing all guns at the opposition, Labour appear to be gaining some momentum. According to a new Survation/Daily Mirror poll, Labour is four points ahead on 35 per cent, compared to the Tories on 31 per cent, Ukip on 15, the Lib Dems on nine and the SNP and Greens both on four. Panelbase has conducted an online poll, which suggests Labour has a six-point lead at 37 per cent and the Conservatives are on 31 per cent. TNS has also released a poll which puts Labour ahead by three points on 33 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories.
The Labour leads in the Survation and Panelbase polls are both outside the margin of error and above the 35 per cent threshold Ed Miliband needs to get into No.10. Given that there are just 28 days to go until polling day, the Conservatives will be worried that instead of the long overdue ‘crossover’, the polls could be shifting in Labour’s favour.
But notably, Survation has Miliband’s net approval ratings ahead of David Cameron for the first time. According to the poll, Miliband’s net approval is +3 points, compared to +2 for David Cameron. At the end of January, Cameron had a net approval of more than 10 points. Internal Tory warfare has always been staved off by the fact that the Prime Minister was more popular than his party. As Dan Hodges says in this week’s Spectator cover piece, the whole Tory campaign premise is that David Cameron is more popular than Ed Miliband. If that is no longer the case, the Tories are in trouble.
There are more polls coming out later this evening, from ComRes and YouGov, which should indicate whether this is another blip or the beginnings of a trend. YouGov had Labour one point ahead yesterday, so we’ll see if all the talk of nuclear weapons and non-doms over the last 24 hours has made any difference.
UPDATE: YouGov/The Sun has released its latest poll, showing a one point lead for the Conservatives, compared to a one point Labour lead yesterday. YouGov puts the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 34, Ukip on 12, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on four. Another poll from ComRes/Daily Mail also shows a one point Tory lead, putting the Conservatives on 34 per cent and Labour on 33 per cent. According to this poll, the Lib Dems are equal with Ukip on 12 per cent. So today has seen five new polls, with Labour ahead in three and Conservatives ahead in two. While some may argue Labour have the momentum, the polls have yet to show the beginnings of any trend.