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This election will be decided by the undecideds

26 April 2015

1:49 PM

26 April 2015

1:49 PM

The polls could hardly be closer than they are at the moment and the parliamentary arithmetic looks like it is going to be remarkably tight, there’ll be only a few seats in it as to whether it’ll be Cameron or Miliband as Prime Minister. Yet, campaign aides on both sides have been struck by one thing: the large number of undecideds.

One recent poll suggested that as many as one in five of those who intend to vote are still undecided. How this group breaks will determine the result. As one close Miliband ally put it to me, ‘The defining moment of this campaign hasn’t happened yet’.


The Tory hope is that an unrelenting focus on the economy and the threat it that any Labour SNP arrangement would pose, will nudge these undecideds into their column. While Labour believe that the Tory focus on the SNP threat has given them ‘huge space to own all the bread and butter issues.’

But, interestingly, Tory MPs in marginal seats do believe that they can hang on. Now, this might just be the perennial optimism of the candidate but I was struck by how many suggested that, because of the incumbency effect and how hard they’ve worked their seats, they should survive if the Tories are just two points ahead nationally. Indeed, if the Tories can keep their loses to Labour below twenty five, then Cameron should be able to hang on as Prime Minister


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