Just when Scottish Labour didn’t think it could get any worse, a new poll suggests they are now facing total wipe out next Thursday. According to Ipsos MORI/STV News, the SNP is now up to 54 per cent of the vote share — up two points since their last poll in January. Punching these numbers into Electoral Calculus suggests the Nats will win all 59 seats and wipe out the other parties. Another prediction website, ScotlandVotes, suggests that this vote share would leave one Liberal Democrat MP after polling day.
Unlike Lord Ashcroft’s recent polls north of the border, this survey was conducted across the whole of Scotland — not just in marginals — and first-past-the-post means that a total wipeout for Scottish Labour is not a dead cert. Interestingly, Ipsos MORI reports that Scottish Labour is down to 20 per cent, just three points ahead of the Scottish Conservatives on 17 per cent. The forceful leadership of Ruth Davidson looks as if it is beginning to help the Tories north of the border and they now have a good chance of holding up their 2010 vote share. The Scottish Liberal Democrats are still floating on five per cent, while the Greens are on two per cent. As pollster Ben Page has commented on Twitter, the Scotland situation looks as if it will help the Conservatives:
Looking at all polls public and in progress I have to say Conservatives edging ahead now, esp given Scottish situation
— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) April 29, 2015
If there was any more proof needed that Scotland is the most politically fertile parts of the country, 80 per cent of those polled by Ipsos MORI said they are certain to vote in the upcoming election, just below the turnout in last year’s independence referendum. For comparison, 64 per cent of Scots voted in the 2010 general election. This marks the second poll this week which puts the SNP above 50 per cent — TNS also put the SNP on 54 per cent of the vote but predicted this would translate into 57 seats. Either the SNP are going to face a disappointment next Thursday, or Scotland is on course to turn into a one party country.