ICM’s poll has ‘no’ ahead, but only just– it’s 51-49. The ICM poll is a telephone one so both phone and internet polls are now showing ‘no’ narrowly ahead but the race too close to call. Adding to the unpredictably of the contest is that ICM found that 17 per cent of voters remain undecided – ‘no’ is on 42 per cent when they are included. Also no one is quite sure of what effect the far higher turnout (87 per cent of respondents said they are absolutely certain to vote) will have.
Being up here in Edinburgh you can’t help but notice how engaged people are with this referendum. There are far more posters up than you would normally see at election time and the casual conversations you walk past are as about the referendum as often as not. But I don’t think anyone can feel confident about the result; it is simply too close to call.
In the next few days, we’ll see more warnings from businesses about the economic consequences of independence and the Labour party continuing to flood the zone in an attempt to give the No campaign a distinctly Labour feel. But this contest is going to go right to the wire.