The final two polls are out on today’s European elections; both of which put Ukip in first place. YouGov, whose poll at the weekend had both parties tied, has placed Ukip just one point ahead of Labour with 27 per cent of the vote — well within their margin of error:
Opinium on the other hand put Ukip seven points ahead of Labour in their final poll, up five points on the last Opinium poll:
Turnout will be key as to what happens in these elections, and the indications from YouGov’s likelihood to vote ratings are that Ukip supporters remain the most enthusiastic. Earlier in the week, almost 80 per cent of Ukippers said they would definitely be voting today. This has dropped to 70 per cent, while Labour, Tory and Lib Dem voters are looking more likely to turn out. However, Ukip still come top:
Based on these polls, predicting what will happen today is tricky. If Ukip supporters enthusiastically flock to the polling stations, coming first appears to be a real possibility. But a huge margin predicted by some pollsters a few weeks ago is looking unlikely. Either way, we’ll have to wait till Sunday evening to find out for certain whether Ukip will make it.