Ukip

It is hugely important, if you are someone as insecure as myself, to say ‘I told you so’ whenever the opportunity arises. So, on 28th January this year I wrote a piece about the Stoke and Copeland by-elections and took a bit of stick on here for its thesis. This was the crucial bit: ‘And Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central? Nuttall has risked all by standing in the latter, where his party came second last time. If he doesn’t win, that may well be it for them. The Lib Dems will continue their revival in both seats, but win neither. My guess is that with a decent candidate, a quiescent Ukip and

Polls have closed in the Copeland and Stoke by-elections. It is too early to say with any certainty what the results will be, but we’ll be with you on Coffee House until the results are declared. In Copeland, it is a two horse race between Labour and the Tories. The Tories aren’t predicting they’ll take it, but they do sound rather optimistic. In private, some Labour MPs are very pessimistic about this result. But this could be expectations management. If the Tories do take Copeland from Labour, it’ll be a staggering result: the governing party hasn’t taken a seat in a by-election in thirty odd years and that was in

We’re told that the story of Stoke and other similar working-class constituencies is the advance of Ukip; yet more important is the advance of ‘none of the above’. Turnout in by-elections is notoriously low, and Thursday will be no exception, but even at the last general election fewer than half the electorate voted in Stoke. This was not always the case. Turnout in Stoke was barely six per cent below the national average in 1987, yet in 2015 it was 16 per cent lower. This is just a weak reflection of the growing divide in political participation among people in different social classes. While differences in turnout between rich and poor

In normal times, by-elections are bad for governing parties and good for oppositions. But it is an indicator of how much trouble Labour is in, as I say in The Sun this morning, that they are the ones who are nervous ahead of Thursday’s by-elections. Some in the Labour machine seem almost resigned to losing Copeland to the Tories and are concentrating on trying to hold off Ukip in Stoke. Given that Labour is polling as low as 24% and Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings are worse than Michael Foot’s were at this point in his leadership, and the epic defeat Foot led Labour to in 1983 paved the way for 14

It’s less than two hours into Ukip’s Spring Conference in Bolton and already the cracks are starting to show. Although Paul Nuttall promised to unite the party as leader, his predecessor Nigel Farage has set the cat among the pigeons with a speech on the future of Ukip. The former leader said he was concerned that ‘too many people’ in the party now wish to turn their back on the bold strategy of ‘thinking the unthinkable’ and ‘saying the unsayable’ that got them where they are today: ‘This party succeeded because we had guts, we had passion, we were brave. But now I sense there are too many people in Ukip —

Perversity is a much undervalued British trait, much more redolent of our real psyche than queuing, drinking tea or being tolerant of foreigners and homosexuals — all things for which we are better renowned. Seeing Dunkirk as a victory was magnificently perverse. So, too, was electing a Labour government in 2005 shortly after we had invaded a sovereign country and created a civil war. For ‘perversity’ I suppose you could read ‘complexity’, although the two often amount to the same thing. Our reactions to stuff are never as straightforward as they should be — they are complex and therefore can seem perverse. And so it is right now. For three

The Copeland by-election will be a fascinating test of whether Brexit can open up more votes for the Tories in the north – the topic of my Daily Telegraph column today. Labour is slowly abandoning its working class voters, with their unfashionable views on human rights and immigration. This was happening under Ed Miliband, and the forces wresting traditional Labour voters away from the Labour Party were laid out in detail by a strikingly prescient report by the Fabian Society entitled ‘Revolt on the Left‘. It identified the various groups of voters moving away from Labour: typically the low-waged and less prosperous pensioners. Those in work tended to resent those

Jamie Reed, the Labour MP for Copeland, has announced he is stepping down from Parliament from the end of January 2017. He is leaving to work at Sellafield, which is in his constituency. Reed is a well known critic of Jeremy Corbyn, and though his resignation letter is warm and polite, it makes frequent and pointed references to the need for a Labour government. It closes with Reed wishing Corbyn well in his endeavours to become the next Labour Prime Minister, something the MP has made pretty clear in previous statements that he thinks is impossible. So why is he leaving? Reed’s constituency is now a marginal seat, with a

Labour’s dire performance in the Sleaford by-election is just the latest sign of a party in terminal decline. To cap it off, a YouGov poll out this week puts them 17 points behind the Tories – their worse showing since the gloomy days of Gordon Brown. Jeremy Corbyn is taking his share of the blame for the miserable state of the Labour party. But for me, the beginning of the end for Labour can be traced back to well before Corbyn. The third of March, 2011, to be precise. It was on this day the Barnsley Central by-election brought rising Labour star Dan Jarvis into Parliament. As a rookie reporter for the Barnsley Chronicle, I

Last night’s Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election played out in a predictable fashion overall. After Stephen Phillips resigned in anguish over ‘irreconcilable policy differences’ regarding the government’s Brexit stance, the Tories comfortably clung onto the seat — with their candidate Caroline Johnson winning over 50 pc of the vote. It was a good result, too, for Ukip — in an area where over 62 pc of voters backed Brexit in the referendum. After coming third there in the general election they won second place this time around. However, it will be encouraging to May that, despite this, Ukip’s vote share did actually decrease marginally — falling from 15.7 pc to 13.5 pc. Although the party

Now that almost six months have passed since the EU referendum, might it be time for old enemies to find common ground? Matthew Parris and Matt Ridley, two of the most eloquent voices on either side of the campaign, meet in the offices of The Spectator to find out.   MATTHEW PARRIS: Catastrophe has not engulfed us yet, it’s true. But I feel worse since the result, rather than better. I thought that, as in all hard-fought campaigns, you get terribly wound up and depressed when you lose. Then you pick yourself up, dust yourself down and start all over again. But my animosities — not just towards the Brexit

One of the crueller caricatures in the 2004 satirical film ‘Team America: World Police’ is a little puppet of Matt Damon who is only able to say ‘Matt Damon’ in a rather feeble and pointless fashion. The actor himself felt he was being cruelly parodied because of his opposition to the Iraq War, and was ‘bewildered’ by the suggestion that he was barely able to say his own name when he was able to learn entire scripts. But the point from the screenwriters seemed to be that beyond his own name, Damon wasn’t really offering anything to the debate about the war. Labour has a Matt Damon problem on immigration