Theresa may

Theresa May unveils her ‘New Brexit Deal’ – will it backfire?

Theresa May has this afternoon had one last roll of the dice in the Brexit saga. In a speech entitled ‘New Brexit Deal’, the Prime Minister threw the kitchen sink at passing her deal on a fourth vote. With May expected to step down if her deal is rejected again after recess, she made an appeal to MPs to get behind a Brexit deal. May conceded that the ‘challenge of taking Brexit from the simplicity of the choice on the ballot paper to the complexity of resetting the country’s relationship with 27 of its nearest neighbours’ had ‘proved even harder’ than she had anticipated: ‘While it has proved even harder than

Katy Balls

Theresa May is on course for an even worse defeat on her Brexit deal

By what margin will Theresa May’s Brexit deal be defeated when it returns to the Commons after recess? The expectation in government is that it will be voted down for a fourth time – and the loss will be greater than on the third vote. The hope in Downing Street is that a bad result for both the Tories and Labour in the European elections will incentivise MPs to take what could be their last shot at passing the Withdrawal Agreement – ahead of a new Tory leader coming in and shaking things up. May is also set to unveil a host of changes – what you could call concessions

What the government needs to do if it really wants to end the domestic abuse ‘postcode lottery’

Unusually, the government made an announcement today on domestic policy, with Theresa May promising to end the ‘postcode lottery’ for domestic abuse victims by forcing English councils. Still more unusually, this announcement has been welcomed with sincerity by the sector it is aimed at. It must be an unusual feeling for ministers, even on a matter such as domestic abuse that May and her junior colleagues have poured more effort into than many other issues. Yes, the Domestic Abuse Bill is still in draft form and realistically unlikely to become statute under the current Prime Minister, but the non-legislative aspects of the government’s drive to tackle this crime are still

When will Theresa May bring the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to the Commons?

Theresa May has one last hope for getting her Brexit deal through. As I say in The Sun this morning, she can bring the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to parliament and try and get MPs to vote for it. Not John Bercow, or anyone else, can stop her from using this as a fourth attempt to get her deal through. But if MPs defeat it again, then Mrs May will have nothing left. If the WAB was voted down, then a new Queen’s Speech would be required to bring it back—and Mrs May would struggle to pass one of those. This is why there’s such intense debate about when to bring

A show of loyalty

After the sacking of Gavin Williamson, a former No. 10 insider said of Theresa May: ‘One of Theresa’s big faults is that she basically doesn’t trust any other elected politicians. She places her trust in advisers and officials, because they are loyal to her.’ The Roman emperor Claudius (r. 41-54 ad) too found it hard to know whom to trust. He turned to an adviser of the previous emperor. Claudius, nephew of the emperor Tiberius, was born in 10 bc but because of some disability (his mother Antonia called him a monster) he was never taken seriously by the imperial family. However, when the emperor Caligula was assassinated in 41 ad,

James Forsyth

May’s compromising position

Can Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn reach a satisfactory compromise on Brexit? The two leaders’ positions are not, in fact, that far apart. Neither wants a second referendum. They both think that the referendum result means that Britain has to leave the EU. Yet neither wants a dramatic rupture. They would prefer to inch away from the union. Gavin Barwell, Theresa May’s chief of staff, has remarked that half of what Labour has asked for in the cross-party Brexit talks has already been requested from the EU but to no avail. Even on customs, the standout issue, the differences between Labour and the Conservatives are more semantic than anything else.

Theresa May tries out a new Brexit delay excuse

PMQs began with Janet Daby calling for a mass-cull of the working-class. The Labour MP relayed the experience of an industrious constituent who already has two jobs, on zero-hour contracts, and seeks a third. ‘Ban zero hours contracts!’ she declared in outrage. Obviously she’s fed up with people working in her constituency. Much easier if they all starve to death. And with her policies they will. Labour leader Jeremy Corybn had good news about the NHS which he’d failed to interpret correctly. Forty per cent of staff last year, he said, had suffered ‘work-related stress’. This means that 60 per cent of them hadn’t. Not a twinge, not a whisper of

How to lose elections

When a political party is in trouble, we see infighting, leak inquiries, resignations, mass loss of council seats, dismissals and botched attempts to depose the leader. But when a party implodes, something different happens: it loses the ability to defend or explain itself. An imploding party can and will lose any argument, no matter how strong its track record. The Tories entered this terminal stage under John Major after the disastrous local elections of 1995, which were followed by their landslide defeat of 1997. With the party now having had its worst set of election since 1995, it looks very much like they might be entering it again. When John

Ross Clark

Theresa May’s promotion of Rory Stewart is a smart move

In sacking Gavin Williamson for an offence he strenuously denies Theresa May has created for herself a potential embarrassment. What if a criminal inquiry were to find the former defence secretary not guilty of any breach of the Official Secrets Act? Yet as no-one seems to have noticed, the mini-reshuffle she carried out in the wake of the sacking has avoided another fast-looming embarrassment. In promoting Rory Stewart to the Cabinet as International Development Secretary  she has averted the loss of a popular and up and coming minister. Last August, when prisons minister, Stewart made a rash promise. He said he would resign if he had not succeeded in reducing

Theresa May flounders horribly at PMQs

Best mates on Brexit, deadly foes on everything else. The highly suspicious search for a Lab/Con Brexit accord was suspended today as the party leaders exchanged blows at PMQs. These covert ‘talks’ are clearly a blackmail effort contrived in Downing Street. By threatening her MPs with a Labour-backed Customs Union, Theresa May hopes to secure their support for her thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement. It might just work. The EU wasn’t mentioned at PMQs but the Labour leader found alternative sources of distress. ‘Things are getting worse,’ he crowed at the Prime Minister as he ran through a hit-parade of sob-stories: inequality, malnutrition, rising crime, falling police numbers and care-home failures. There’s

How long can the government put off a Queen’s speech for?

How does Theresa May plan to spend the six-month Brexit extension? Nearly one month in and there is little sign of a Brexit breakthrough. The Labour/Tory talks are ongoing yet those inside the room are pessimistic they will lead to an imminent solution. It now seems as though there won’t be much in the way of domestic legislation either. In a lobby briefing, a Downing Street spokesman has suggested that the next Queen’s speech is to be postponed: ‘What we are focused on is the withdrawal agreement bill [WAB], because that is the legislation which is necessary in order to ratify our withdrawal from the EU. That is part of

Theresa May will have to give the ’22 an answer

Next week, Theresa May will sit down with Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. He will ask her for more clarity on her departure plans. As I say in The Sun this morning, the answer that Mrs May gives will go a long way to determining her future. On Wednesday, the executive of the 1922 Committee rejected a change to its rules which would allow another vote of confidence in Mrs May’s leadership. But this decision was taken narrowly, 9 to 7 with 2 abstentions, and the executive did decide to ask the Prime Minister for more detail on when she will go. If Mrs May simply carries

Portrait of the week | 25 April 2019

Home Theresa May, the Prime Minister, returned to parliament after the Easter recess to find backbenchers plotting to get rid of her. The 1922 Committee agonised over whether to change its rules in order to hold another vote of no confidence in her. More than 70 local Conservative association chiefs called an extraordinary general meeting of the National Conservative Convention to consider the proposition: ‘We no longer feel that Mrs May is the right person to continue as prime minister.’ A poll of Conservative councillors by Survation, for the Mail on Sunday, found that 40 per cent were planning to vote for the Brexit party in next month’s EU elections.

Katy Balls

‘I’m not stupid’

Rory Stewart has just been appointed international development secretary. Last week, he explained to Katy Balls why he would make a good Prime Minister: Almost nobody in Westminster admits to wanting to be prime minister. Rory Stewart is a cheerful exception. Most leadership hopefuls prefer to plot in dark corners and woo supporters in candlelit bars. The Prisons Minister is happy to sit in the sun in Hyde Park and talk openly about his ambition. It’s a tricky time for this country, he says. ‘In a normal situation I probably wouldn’t want to run.’ One of his friends thinks he’s mad: what’s the matter with just being MP for Penrith

James Forsyth

Ripe for reform

Any hopes that the parliamentary recess would help resolve the great Brexit impasse have been dashed. MPs have returned from their break more entrenched in their positions. The essential facts remain. Theresa May doesn’t have enough votes to pass the withdrawal agreement. Equally, no Brexit option from a second referendum to a customs union has demonstrated that it can command the support of the Commons either. Tory MPs lack confidence in May’s leadership but can’t agree on who should succeed her, which keeps May in place. The consequence of all this: the drift continues. On the Tory side, the debate is fast coming down to what are MPs more scared

Will a Queen’s speech spell the end of May’s government?

What is the maximum point of danger for the government in the coming months? After Theresa May secured a six month Article 50 extension, many MPs along with the Tory grassroots are irate and calling for her to go. However, it’s still not clear how they could force the Prime Minister out before December (when she can once again face a confidence vote by her MPs). Meanwhile, the Brexit deadlock means that the majority of crunch votes result in no decision. Even if May moves to back a permanent customs union it’s not clear it will pass the Commons. The answer then could lie in the Queen’s speech – and

Friends and allies

The European Union’s official goal — an ever-closer union of people — remains its single most attractive feature. Our continent is marked by its diversity: nowhere can you find a greater range of languages, histories and cultures. Closer co-operation is within everyone’s interests, and the EU has done much to facilitating this. Its mistake was a lack of respect for the democratic traditions of its member states, and when it sought to impose a fixed set of rules over the most culturally and economically diverse club of nations it became a source of instability in Europe. The rise of populist parties in Europe is the most visible sign of the over-reach.

Jonathan Miller

Emmanuel’s folly

 Montpellier An embattled, incompetent leader distrusted and disliked by a vast majority of voters. A wobbly economy that might be tipped into recession by Brexit. A re-energised opposition. Huge street protests. Squabbling with European partners. The government is paralysed, the opposition is emboldened — and the nation stands humiliated, as the world looks on in horror wondering how a leader who was so popular two years ago could get things so wrong. Not Theresa May, but Emmanuel Macron, the politician who may be the greatest Brexiteer of them all. As the saga of British withdrawal enters its final chapter, Macron has emerged as the loudest advocate for pushing Britain out

Lionel Shriver

You win, parliament. Now revoke Article 50

Dear Remainer parliament. Although we’re the voters who spurned the petition for this very course of action, we the undersigned formally request that you please revoke Article 50 at your earliest convenience. For Philip, Oliver, Dominic, Amber, Greg, et al (forgive the familiar first names, but over the last few months we’ve come to feel we know you so terribly well), this appeal from your nemeses may come as a surprise. After all, it was to appease us knuckle-draggers that you invoked the Article in the first place. Apologies for seeming so fickle. But in what Charles Moore has aptly dubbed Europe’s contemporary ‘empire’, all roads lead not to Rome

Matthew Parris

What’s left for Brexiteers?

My first encounter with a plan to hold not one but two referendums on Britain’s European Union membership happened more than three years ago. At least two individuals were actively entertaining the idea. Both were Leavers. Dominic Cummings had proposed it in one of his blogs. Boris Johnson had not publicly endorsed such a thing, but (I know) was discussing it with interest privately. The thinking, as I recall, was similar in both cases. The first referendum would be the one we then faced: asking voters for a yes or no to the idea that in principle we should quit. If the result was Remain, we’d remain. If Leave, there