Theresa may

Theresa May heads into uncharted waters

The single most important fact in British politics, I say in the magazine this week, is that Theresa May does not currently have the votes to pass her Brexit plan even if she could get the European Union to accept it. ‘The numbers just don’t stack up’, one Cabinet Minister laments to me. May’s problem is that there’ll be a sizeable Tory rebellion against the Chequers deal. One Cabinet Minister predicts that 60-odd Tories will vote against it and it is hard to see how May can get enough opposition MPs to back the deal to make up for it. Compounding the situation for May is that both Tory Eurosceptic

Rod Liddle

This is Brexit in name only to keep the plebs happy

My wife has decided she likes Dominic Raab, the latest poor sap to be despatched from a hamstrung, spasticated government to negotiate our exit from the European Union before a plethora of sniggering pygmies from the Low Countries. I think it’s the sound of his surname, those consecutive vowels, because I’ve noticed she also likes aardvarks and once expressed a wish to visit Aachen. I can’t think of many other reasons to like the chap. He surely knows what we all know, Leavers and Remainers alike — that the route our Prime Minister dreamed up one night while out of her box on skag, presumably, is not Brexit at all

Can Theresa May count?

It’s day four of the Brexiteer rebellion and Theresa May appears to have shored up her position… for now. The eurosceptics who take the greatest issue with her Chequers blue print – thought to be around 70 Tory MPs – don’t think they have the numbers as of yet to win a no confidence and, they say, this isn’t even their preferred option. What they want is for the Prime Minister to change course – but No 10 insist that they won’t budge. Unless she does, Guerrilla tactics have been threatened – so get ready for more resignations. However, as I say in today’s i paper, the biggest problem from

Poor Theresa May. In Trump-speak, ‘very good relationship’ means he can’t stand you

Uh oh – Poor Theresa.  You know that when Donald Trump, the most powerful man in the world, tells the media that you and he have a ‘very good relationship’, it means he doesn’t like you at all. It’s what he said about Theresa May this morning, just before he left for Europe. It’s also what he says about Justin Trudeau (‘good relationship’), Angela Merkel (‘really great relationship’),  Mitch McConnell (‘relationship is very good’) and even Barack Obama (‘very good relationship’). In fact, in Trump-speak, ‘very good relationship’ means ‘I can’t stand him/her.’ Boris Johnson is a different matter. ‘Boris Johnson is a friend of mine,’ said the President this morning.

What Jeremy Hunt got right – and wrong – as Health Secretary

You couldn’t get a stronger contrast between the new Foreign Secretary and his predecessor. Jeremy Hunt is a minister who has earned the absolute trust of two Prime Ministers in an extremely politically charged job. He was brought in by David Cameron to clear up the mess after Andrew Lansley’s Health and Social Care Act disaster, and Theresa May kept him in place, quickly learning that he was one of the few ministers she really could leave to their own devices. This was a huge accolade from May, given her propensity to micromanage. Hunt earned that trust because he is a very loyal Cabinet minister. He does not style himself

James Forsyth

What happened when Theresa May met with her MPs

Having lost two of her most senior Cabinet Ministers, Theresa May went to address her MPs in a stuffy, hot room. But the occasion went off fairly-well for her. The vast majority of the questions were supportive and even the veteran Eurosceptic Edward Leigh made clear that the 1990s showed that a leadership contest wouldn’t achieve anything. Perhaps, the most hostile moment came towards the end of the session when Philip Davies asked if she regretted how Friday was handled given it appeared like a Remain coup. Other than Davies, most of the questions were fairly friendly. Former Cabinet Ministers Damian Green, and Patrick McLoughlin were supportive. Maria Caufield, a

Katy Balls

Theresa May faces the music in the Commons

When Theresa May envisaged herself giving a statement in the Commons on the Cabinet agreement made at Chequers, she didn’t expect to do so with her Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary no longer by her side. And so it was after a morning of high drama, a lonely Prime Minister this afternoon had to face questions from a divided party over a Brexit position she yesterday thought her Cabinet agreed upon. It wasn’t a pleasurable experience for the beleaguered Prime Minister. Labour’s Kevin Brennan asked May whether the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg was right that 48 letters had been sent calling for a ‘no confidence’ vote. May simply said she was

How much more unpalatable will the EU make this deal?

From the flurry of joint op-eds from Cabinet Ministers today, you might be forgiven for thinking that the Chequers deal is the deal. But, of course, it is not. Rather, it is the UK’s government opening position in the negotiation on the future relationship. So, logically, you would expect the government to have to make more concessions. The problem for the ministerial Brexiteers is that what the EU is likely to demand will make the deal much more difficult to defend. Take, for instance, parliament’s role in having to pass any changes to the so-called ‘common rulebook’ between the UK and the EU. Number 10 likes to talk about this

How Theresa May trounced the Brexiteers

Tory MPs and ministers have consistently under-estimated their leader. What Theresa May achieved at Chequers yesterday was extraordinary. She persuaded her cabinet to sign up for a Brexit plan that drives a coach and horses through what the Brexiters in her team – especially Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – said Brexit was all about, during that historic referendum campaign. What is more, at Chequers yesterday, Gove was a cheerleader for a plan that would enshrine in treaty what is supposedly anathema to his Brexit cause – that the UK now and forever would be subject to European Union rules and regulations governing the quality and safety of the goods

James Forsyth

The reason May’s third way won approval? Cabinet Brexiteers have no alternative plan

Theresa May is through Chequers with a plan that proposes having the UK follow EU rules on goods and agri-foods. This isn’t what the Cabinet’s Brexiteers would have expected two years ago, or even nine months ago. But as I say in The Sun this morning, the biggest single reason they are putting up with this is that they don’t have an alternative plan. When Boris Johnson invited the Cabinet’s Brexiteers plus Gavin Williamson and Sajid Javid, who were pivotal to the Brexiter inner Cabinet’s rejection of Theresa May’s new customs partnership plan, to his office for a meeting on Wednesday morning it only highlighted the group’s problems. First, Javid

Cabinet back Theresa May’s soft Brexit plan. How will Brussels respond?

Theresa May’s Cabinet away day is finally over and the Prime Minister can go to sleep safe in the knowledge that there have been no resignations… yet. In a No 10 statement this evening, May said the Cabinet had agreed its collective position for the Brexit negotiations – for a common rule book on industrial goods and agricultural products. This means the UK would have to in effect follow EU rules in these sectors: ‘Our proposal will create a U.K. – EU free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products. This maintains high standards in these areas, but we will also ensure that no

How many kamikaze Tory MPs even are there?

It’s the night before the Chequers summit and it’s all starting to kick off. After James revealed on Coffee House that the key Brexit customs paper passed by No 10 to Cabinet Ministers ahead of tomorrow’s meeting could be perceived as effectively ruling out a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, Brexiteers have been quick to see red. Right on cue, Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that if May’s proposal is as reported it spells vassal state. The Brexit Secretary has written a letter to the Prime Minister outlining his problems with the government approach. Meanwhile, 46 Tory MPs – including 11 former cabinet ministers – have written to Theresa May, urging her to

The Spectator’s 190th birthday party, in pictures

With just two days to go until Theresa May’s big Chequers away day, the Cabinet headed to 22 Old Queen for a pre-sesh. Theresa May held court in the garden while Michael Gove charmed guests on the merits of getting rid of tusk – ivory, not the EU leader naturally. Given that this was no normal Spectator summer party – instead the Spectator’s 190th birthday party – guests were in such a merry mood that even the odd speck of rain failed to dampen proceedings. Here are a range of photos from the bash, courtesy of Alan Davidson and Anne Schwarz:  

How is Theresa May’s NHS funding boost landing with voters?

How is Theresa May’s big £20bn funding pledge landing with the public? That’s the question Tory MPs are beginning to ask. The Prime Minister’s – currently unfunded – early birthday present for the NHS to celebrate its 70th birthday was announced to much fanfare last month. It was meant as an agenda setting policy that would help to define her premiership, show there was more to Mayism than Brexit and boost the Tories’ standing with voters. As of yet though, signs of an immediate Tory boost are absent. A YouGov poll – taken 25-26 June about a week after it was announced – puts the Tories ahead with a five-point

Why Whitehall is failing to solve the social care crisis

The government’s cash boost for the NHS isn’t going to solve its problems. That’s the verdict of pretty much every independent spending scrutiniser, including the National Audit Office’s Comptroller, Amyas Morse. He’s said today that the £20bn founding increase announced by Theresa May and Jeremy Hunt will maintain current standards, but won’t enable the health service to grow as the population needs it to. There is also no way that the cash set out recently will solve one of the biggest drains on the health service: the crisis in social care. The Treasury only agreed money for the NHS, not the services that many patients need to be able to

James Forsyth

Theresa May: Brexit does mean Brexit

Theresa May’s appearance in the Commons today debuted some new language but didn’t tell us much about what she’ll set out to the Cabinet on Friday. May repeated that membership of the European Economic Area would not respect the result of the referendum. Now, she has said this several times before but her comment will reassure some Brexiteers. They’ll be less reassured, though, by her dodging the question when Jacob Rees-Mogg asked her if the UK would continue to be bound by the Common External Tariff after Brexit. May was conciliatory in her tone at the despatch box, but she seemed particularly keen to calm Brexiteers.  When Desmond Swayne asked

Tory tensions rise as decision day looms for Theresa May

‘It’s not just backbench Conservative MPs who expect ministers to pull together behind May: the great swathe of the electorate which either voted Leave, or voted Remain but recognises that a united team will achieve a better trading relationship for the future than a divided one, expects it too.’ This is the warning Graham Brady issued to badly behaved Tory ministers over the weekend. Writing in the Guardian, the chair of the all-powerful 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs, presented the feuding Cabinet with a choice: get behind May or prepare for a Corbyn victory at the next election similar to 1997. This isn’t the first time Brady has had

Erdogan, Trump and other fragile egos: Theresa May’s unenviable foreign policy dilemmas

Given the way her Cabinet ministers are behaving at the moment, Theresa May is really rather used to dealing with fragile egos. This will come in handy over the next month when the Prime Minister has to go from what promises to be an extremely tricky Nato summit straight into Donald Trump’s visit to the UK. As James says in his politics column this week, the challenges of these events, along with the ongoing problems both in the Cabinet and Parliament over Brexit, will make July one of the hardest months of May’s premiership to date. But trying to tell her warring ministers to shut up seems easy compared to

What is Jeremy Hunt up to?

‘What you can see is someone who has the instincts of a Brexiteer, but the cautious pragmatism of a Remainer, which is where I think the British people are.’ This is how Jeremy Hunt tried to sell Theresa May’s leadership on the Andrew Marr sofa this Sunday. After a choppy few weeks for No. 10, the Health Secretary made clear that he felt May was still the right person for the job of Prime Minister. Perhaps it’s just pure coincidence then that one could also substitute Hunt’s name with May’s in that endorsement. Like May, Hunt is a Remainer turned Brexiteer. A point he also proved on Sunday when he

How the EU’s migration crisis is making Brexit more difficult

Next week’s EU Council will see little progress on Brexit. As I write in The Sun today, migration—not Brexit—is the biggest issue on the agenda for the EU 27. Migration is roiling European politics again. Angela Merkel’s coalition is threatening to break apart over the issue. While in Italy, the new government is threatening to close its southern border—blocking migrant rescue ships from landing—and open its northern border, encouraging illegal migrants and asylum seekers to head north to Germany and Sweden. So worried is the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that he is hosting a mini-summit this Sunday to try and come up with some policies that can ease Merkel’s