Polls
Nate Silver interview: ‘Politics is uniquely full of bullshit’
Nate Silver doesn’t suffer fools gladly — especially fools who pass themselves off as experts. In the second chapter of his book, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and… Continue reading
14 Comments
Is nice but dim such a bad thing for Labour?
Labour’s lead in the polls has been pretty steady at around 10 points for a little over a year now. So why does today’s Guardian carry an article with the… Continue reading
33 Comments
Unpopulus
Steerpike is back in print in today’s Spectator. Here’s a taste of what to expect: ‘It’s been a tricky few days for Populus, the ultracool research organisation. Once the Tories’… Continue reading
0 Comments
Should the Public Affairs Act 1975 be repealed?
9 per cent of Brits say the Public Affairs Act 1975 should be repealed, and 9 per cent say it shouldn’t, according to a new poll by YouGov. If you’re… Continue reading
36 Comments
Evidence-based politics: the case of the incredible shrinking Tory Party
Here is something those who rely on political commentators will not have expected to see. The latest poll from TNS BMRB has the Tories down to just a quarter of… Continue reading
135 Comments
Poll: Boris could save 50 Tory MPs
YouGov have once again tested how a Boris-led Tory party would compare to a Cameron-led one in the polls. When they last did so in October, they found that Boris… Continue reading
34 Comments
Budget 2013: The public’s verdict
We’ve got the first post-Budget polling from YouGov, and it brings mixed news for George Osborne. Certainly, this Budget doesn’t seem (so far) to have dented the Chancellor’s reputation the… Continue reading
16 Comments
The truth about Ukip supporters
Who are all these folk jumping on Nigel Farage’s bandwagon? Ukip — which received just 3 per cent of the vote in 2010 — is now averaging about 11 per… Continue reading
221 Comments
Eastleigh by-election: Four points from Ashcroft’s exit poll
The result might be in, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing useful polls can tell us about the Eastleigh by-election. What swayed the voters? Why did they vote as they… Continue reading
27 Comments
Why I’m not keen on referenda
It did not, in the end, take very much to outfox Ed Miliband. You wonder what he had been expecting the Prime Minister to say about a referendum on withdrawing,… Continue reading
55 Comments
The public’s verdict on the Autumn Statement
We’ve only had two days to digest it, but the early signs from YouGov are that George Osborne’s Autumn Statement has gone down a lot better than his March Budget.… Continue reading
22 Comments
The death of principle
If you only have time to read one full length newspaper piece today, read this one by George Bridges, the former backroom Tory guru and CPS director. It is a brilliant,… Continue reading
64 Comments
David Cameron under attack from voters, Ed Miliband, David Davis and Angela Merkel on Europe
The Sunday Papers and the broadcast shows are packed with accounts of Britain’s fractious relationship with the European Union, and what that means for David Cameron. The Observer gives space… Continue reading
38 Comments
Exclusive: David Cameron accused of misleading over gay marriage polling
One of Britain’s leading pollsters has written to the Prime Minister to rebuke him for misleading his supporters over whether the Conservative Party would suffer in the polls if they… Continue reading
113 Comments
Sorry, but Barack Obama’s clearly ahead
Four years ago, on the weekend before the 2008 presidential election, political commentator John McLaughlin asked the four panellists on his show The McLaughlin Group to predict the winner. As… Continue reading
75 Comments
Polls suggest Boris as leader could be worth an extra 50 Tory MPs
In their first poll conducted fully after all the party conferences, YouGov once again tested what difference replacing David Cameron with Boris Johnson would have on the Conservatives’ poll rating.… Continue reading
14 Comments
David Cameron reverses Ed Miliband’s conference bounce
Just as Ed Miliband seemed to get a poll bounce from his conference speech last week, so David Cameron seems to have got one from his on Wednesday. On YouGov’s… Continue reading
28 Comments
Romney narrows the gap, but Obama remains the favourite
The question after last week’s presidential debate was not who had won — there was a clear consensus that Mitt Romney had got the better of Barack Obama — but… Continue reading
18 Comments
Are you a ‘suspicious striver’?
I have always wanted to be part of that tranche of voters identified by pollsters as being crucial in general elections. But it never happens. Every few years arseholes in… Continue reading
35 Comments
‘Are you better off?’ won’t be a winning debate line for Mitt Romney
‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ That was the question Ronald Reagan told Americans to ask themselves when choosing their President in 1980, and it’s a… Continue reading
7 Comments