Office for Budget Responsibility

G7 Finance Ministers Meet In Dresden

George Osborne’s ‘Living Wage’ will soon set wages for 11pc of UK workers

24 July 2015 10:55

George Osborne’s Budget plan to raise the minimum wage to £9.35 for over-25s was a surprise – which means it has not yet been much scrutinised. Ed Miliband’s £8 by… Continue reading

Robert Chote (L) of the OBR.

How many immigrants would satisfy the OBR?

17 July 2013 21:53

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Britain must bring millions more immigrants into the UK to sustain our ageing population. As the Telegraph reports it, the OBR study… Continue reading

Graphic: Carla Millar

Has the jobs recovery stalled?

17 April 2013 16:39

The number of people in work in December to February was 29.698 million — lower than last month’s 29.732 million and representing a very slight 2,000 quarter-on-quarter fall — according… Continue reading

Image: Getty

An independent rap across the knuckles for the Prime Minister

8 March 2013 17:54

Today’s letter from the Office of Budget Responsibility pointing out to David Cameron that the OBR’s growth forecasts have taken into account the effect of austerity on growth is embarrassing… Continue reading

Is Britain working?

Private sector growth pushes employment to new record high

12 December 2012 13:07

The number of people in work in the UK hit 29.6 million in August-October – the most ever — according to today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics. So… Continue reading

Robert Chote (L) of the OBR.

We’ve shown forecasts are unreliable, jokes OBR chief

11 December 2012 13:34

‘We’ve done quite a good job at demonstrating the limitations of economic forecasting,’ half-joked Office for Budget Responsibility Chairman Robert Chote at the start of his Treasury Select Committee appearance… Continue reading

The Osborne austerity has meant core spending cut by just 3pc over 3 years. Debt is soaring - and voters who wanted him to fix all this will be deeply unimpressed in 2015.

Autumn Statement: Downgrades R Us

4 December 2012 13:45

How much trouble is George Osborne in? We don’t need to wait until his mini-Budget tomorrow, we already know most of it. And we’ll enter that peculiar Budget game, where… Continue reading

The IFS says George Osborne must not use the QE transfer to claim he's meeting his debt target. Graphic: Carla Millar

IFS warns Osborne: don’t cook the books, like Brown

26 November 2012 12:19

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has today published its attempt to predict what the OBR forecasts will show when they’re released as George Osborne sits down after delivering his Autumn… Continue reading

Osborne might avoid missing his debt target at the Autumn Statement, but not because the economic outlook is brighter. Picture: Getty Images

George Osborne might meet his debt target after all

23 November 2012 18:08

When George Osborne gives his Autumn Statement on 5 December, the OBR will publish its new forecasts for growth, deficit and debt. For the last few weeks, the consensus has… Continue reading

The Osborne austerity has meant core spending cut by just 3pc over 3 years. Debt is soaring - and voters who wanted him to fix all this will be deeply unimpressed in 2015.

Labour underestimated Osborne’s deficit

22 November 2012 14:58

As Fraser reported at the time, Labour put up a deficit clock on its website last month, claiming that the government was borrowing £277 million more during Tory conference than… Continue reading

The Osborne Austerity

Will Osborne have the luck of the Irish with his 4G auction?

16 November 2012 13:10

Could George Osborne be in line for a genuine windfall? The Chancellor is getting quite good at conjuring fake ones (Post Office pensions, raiding £35 billion from the Bank of… Continue reading

Reports suggest Osborne will ditch his debt target in December. Graphic: Carla Millar

Why George Osborne will miss his debt target

12 September 2012 17:27

Much is being made today of reports that George Osborne will drop his fiscal target in his autumn statement on 5 December. Isabel reported earlier that, faced with breaking his… Continue reading

Osborne's pace has been affected by the OBR's negative forecasting. Photo: Getty Images.

With friends like the OBR, George Osborne hardly needs enemies

29 August 2012 13:55

The Office of Budget Responsibility was created to be George Osborne’s friend. The theory was that under the leadership of Sir Alan Budd, the OBR would urge the Chancellor to… Continue reading

Concern Grows Over Quality Of NHS Treatment

Ageing Britain needs more immigration

12 July 2012 18:30

Some generalisations hold good. Young people, for instance, tend to be less hostile to immigration than their elders. This speaks well of their decency but also, as today’s report form… Continue reading


Greece is still the word

15 May 2012 9:20

Remember when Europe’s leaders were basically saying, ‘Don’t worry, it’s all sorted’? Remember when they were putting out communiqués that started ‘The euro continues to rest on solid fundamentals’? No… Continue reading


Your guide to Osborne’s fiscal rules

28 March 2012 16:02

George Osborne’s two fiscal rules have been around since his very first Budget, delivered almost two years ago, so they’re hardly news. But they do underpin much of what he’s done… Continue reading


Osborne opens the door to dynamic costings

27 March 2012 17:34

George Osborne’s announcement that the Treasury is going to start looking at the dynamic effect of tax changes is significant. The aim, I understand, is for them to gather data… Continue reading


Osborne needs to speed up

23 March 2012 9:25

Will the Budget make a difference? Nowadays, we have a quick and easy guide: Box 3.1 from the Office for Budget Responsibility — otherwise known as the ‘blind bit of difference’… Continue reading


Your six-point guide to the Green Budget

1 February 2012 16:27

As promised earlier, here’s my more detailed supplementary take on today’s IFS Green Budget. I’ve distilled it down into six points, but obviously there’s much, much more in the actual… Continue reading


Inflation at 4.2 per cent is nothing to cheer

17 January 2012 11:41

Are today’s inflation figures cause for celebration? The Consumer Price Index rose a mere 4.2 per cent in the year to December, down from 4.8 per cent in November. So,… Continue reading


Good news from Brussels

12 December 2011 17:00

While the debate over Europe rumbles on, it’s worth highlighting one bright spot in the OBR’s recent document of doom which has largely slipped past Westminster’s radar: by their forecasts,… Continue reading


Osborne has made the right choice — but it’s not without its costs

29 November 2011 16:08

Today, George Osborne had a choice. Growth prospects have evaporated, and tax revenues along with it. Should he reopen the 2010 Spending Review and cut the spending totals? Or stick… Continue reading


Growth has upset Osborne’s plans — and it’s likely to get worse

29 November 2011 15:03

The real story, as everyone expected, wasn’t in the Pre-Budget Report ‘Green Book’ — but in the supplementary document produced by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility. Growth forecasts have taken… Continue reading


The Autumn Statement: What you need to know

29 November 2011 13:58

We’ve been posting some of these charts on Twitter, but here they are, collected, for CoffeeHousers. You can expect more as we mine deeper into the OBR’s supplementary document. Do… Continue reading


Breaking: Ed Balls has a point

31 October 2011 18:41

The games have started a day early, folks. The latest quarterly growth figures are set to be released tomorrow morning, but already Ed Balls is waxing insistent about what they… Continue reading