Office for Budget Responsibility
Has the jobs recovery stalled?
The number of people in work in December to February was 29.698 million — lower than last month’s 29.732 million and representing a very slight 2,000 quarter-on-quarter fall — according… Continue reading
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An independent rap across the knuckles for the Prime Minister
Today’s letter from the Office of Budget Responsibility pointing out to David Cameron that the OBR’s growth forecasts have taken into account the effect of austerity on growth is embarrassing… Continue reading
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Private sector growth pushes employment to new record high
The number of people in work in the UK hit 29.6 million in August-October – the most ever — according to today’s figures from the Office for National Statistics. So… Continue reading
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We’ve shown forecasts are unreliable, jokes OBR chief
‘We’ve done quite a good job at demonstrating the limitations of economic forecasting,’ half-joked Office for Budget Responsibility Chairman Robert Chote at the start of his Treasury Select Committee appearance… Continue reading
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Autumn Statement: Downgrades R Us
How much trouble is George Osborne in? We don’t need to wait until his mini-Budget tomorrow, we already know most of it. And we’ll enter that peculiar Budget game, where… Continue reading
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IFS warns Osborne: don’t cook the books, like Brown
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has today published its attempt to predict what the OBR forecasts will show when they’re released as George Osborne sits down after delivering his Autumn… Continue reading
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George Osborne might meet his debt target after all
When George Osborne gives his Autumn Statement on 5 December, the OBR will publish its new forecasts for growth, deficit and debt. For the last few weeks, the consensus has… Continue reading
26 Comments Labour underestimated Osborne’s deficit
As Fraser reported at the time, Labour put up a deficit clock on its website last month, claiming that the government was borrowing £277 million more during Tory conference than… Continue reading
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Will Osborne have the luck of the Irish with his 4G auction?
Could George Osborne be in line for a genuine windfall? The Chancellor is getting quite good at conjuring fake ones (Post Office pensions, raiding £35 billion from the Bank of… Continue reading
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Why George Osborne will miss his debt target
Much is being made today of reports that George Osborne will drop his fiscal target in his autumn statement on 5 December. Isabel reported earlier that, faced with breaking his… Continue reading
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With friends like the OBR, George Osborne hardly needs enemies
The Office of Budget Responsibility was created to be George Osborne’s friend. The theory was that under the leadership of Sir Alan Budd, the OBR would urge the Chancellor to… Continue reading
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Ageing Britain needs more immigration
Some generalisations hold good. Young people, for instance, tend to be less hostile to immigration than their elders. This speaks well of their decency but also, as today’s report form… Continue reading
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Greece is still the word
Remember when Europe’s leaders were basically saying, ‘Don’t worry, it’s all sorted’? Remember when they were putting out communiqués that started ‘The euro continues to rest on solid fundamentals’? No… Continue reading
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Your guide to Osborne’s fiscal rules
George Osborne’s two fiscal rules have been around since his very first Budget, delivered almost two years ago, so they’re hardly news. But they do underpin much of what he’s done… Continue reading
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Osborne opens the door to dynamic costings
George Osborne’s announcement that the Treasury is going to start looking at the dynamic effect of tax changes is significant. The aim, I understand, is for them to gather data… Continue reading
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Osborne needs to speed up
Will the Budget make a difference? Nowadays, we have a quick and easy guide: Box 3.1 from the Office for Budget Responsibility — otherwise known as the ‘blind bit of difference’… Continue reading
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Your six-point guide to the Green Budget
As promised earlier, here’s my more detailed supplementary take on today’s IFS Green Budget. I’ve distilled it down into six points, but obviously there’s much, much more in the actual… Continue reading
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Inflation at 4.2 per cent is nothing to cheer
Are today’s inflation figures cause for celebration? The Consumer Price Index rose a mere 4.2 per cent in the year to December, down from 4.8 per cent in November. So,… Continue reading
44 CommentsGood news from Brussels
While the debate over Europe rumbles on, it’s worth highlighting one bright spot in the OBR’s recent document of doom which has largely slipped past Westminster’s radar: by their forecasts,… Continue reading
23 CommentsOsborne has made the right choice — but it’s not without its costs
Today, George Osborne had a choice. Growth prospects have evaporated, and tax revenues along with it. Should he reopen the 2010 Spending Review and cut the spending totals? Or stick… Continue reading
23 Comments