Libya

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Gaddafi’s refugee army

There is one particular question swirling around when it comes to Libya: how brittle is the regime and its military arm? An answer is now slowly emerging, and one that looks like good news for the rebels – if also yet more proof of Gaddafi’s depravity. Reuters is running a story about refugees inside Libya, predominantly from sub-Sahara, being detained, beaten and robbed of their identity papers by Libyan soldiers only to be offered money to take up arms against the rebels. Fergo Fevomoye, a 23-year-old refugee who crossed the Libyan-Tunisian border, told Reuters: “They will give you a gun and train you like a soldier. Then you fight the

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Burying the dead

Lockerbie is back in vogue. The Telegraph reports that Mi5 has ‘conclusive evidence’ that Moussa Koussa was ‘directing operational and intelligence gathering activities against Libyan dissidents’ and organising support for terror groups. Koussa is expected to meet with Scottish prosecutors later this week to discuss the Lockerbie bombing. Also, the Libyan rebels have pledged to assist British security services investigate Gaddafi’s sponsorship of terrorism, particularly the IRA. Anything that brings Gaddafi and his most murderous henchmen to justice will give solace to victims. But no amount of water can wash away the grubby circumstances of al-Megrahi’s release. The subtle influence of the government on the Scottish authorities has been covered

Monday

Daniel Korski

Is al Qaeda in Libya?

This is one of the key questions about the Libya intervention. The Libyan Fighting Islamic Group was once one of the largest jihadist groups in the world and many Libyans fought in Iraq. So the fear of al Qaeda’s presence in Libya is well-founded. The terrorist network certainly appears to be trying to associate itself with the rebellion, much as the Muslim Brotherhood tried to exploit events at Tahrir Square. But there is very little evidence to fuel concern about Al Qaeda, except for a quote from Admiral James Stavridis, who said that there had been “flickers in the intelligence of potential al Qaeda” and “Hizbollah” involvement. Notice the word

Saturday

David Blackburn

Death on the road to Brega

NATO has accidently bombed a rebel convoy on the road to Brega. Casualties are understood to have been heavy and, judging by footage, the rebels at the scene are pretty exercised: lots of angry tears, outraged rhetoric and shooting in the air.  An emotional  response is understandable in the aftermath of tragedy, especially in the fraternal fever of rebellion. However, the response does reveal something about the rebels’ military sense and capability: firing guns in the air without thought to what may be above is symptomatic of the martial indiscipline hampering their efforts. NATO is conducting an inquiry into this affair, but it seems that the flight turned on the

Friday

Alex Massie

The Death of Process

From the beginning the Obama campaign and administration has made a point, even a fetish, of process. Judgement matters and good process is considered vital to increasing the chances that good judgements will be made. Hillary Clinton’s 3am alarm call advert during the primary was deemed silly because, actually, it’s pretty unusual for a President to have to make an instant, sleepy-headed and blurry-eyed call of the kind imagined by the advert. And of course Obama’s supporters in that primary tended to think his judgement – cooler, more measured, less flighty – better than Hillary’s. Iraq was not the only data point, either. So let’s see what David Brooks has

David Blackburn

From the archives – a notable desertion

An obvious comparison can be drawn between Moussa Koussa and Rudolf Hess. It is intriguing but easily overextended. While Koussa’s sense of self-preservation is palpable, Hess’s flight at the high tide of Nazism remains unfathomable. Back in May 1941, a onetime prominent Nazi and man of letters called Dr Hermann Rauschning, a controversial oddity in his own right, analysed the Hess mystery for the Spectator. (Incidentally, the British secret service file on Hess will be released in 2016.) The Rudolf Hess Mystery, 16 May 1941 The flight of Rudolf Hess to enemy country in the middle of the war is more than a lost battle for Hitler. It must be

Daniel Korski

The pressing need to oust Gaddafi

The op-ed by David Cameron and his Qatari counterpart Hamed Bin Jassem in the run-up to the London conference received very little play in the UK media. That’s a shame because it set out, anew, the reasons for the Libyan intervention, which are already at risk of being lost in the debate about ways, means and exits. ‘Yesterday, reports reached us of fresh attacks on the people of Misurata. Snipers are gunning people down in the street. Food, water and electricity supplies have been cut off. Ghaddafi and his regime are continuing to carry out acts of appalling brutality and cruelty, in clear and flagrant breach of the UN Resolution.

David Blackburn

How to encourage the others

Lord Malloch Brown has inverted Voltaire’s maxim on the execution of Admiral Byng: treat Moussa Koussa well to encourage the others. Most of this morning’s papers expect further defections from the Gaddafi regime ‘within days’. These defections are expected to come from Gaddafi’s civil administration; the Colonel’s military and security arms remain fiercely loyal. The Foreign Office refuses to give a ‘running commentary’ on events, but the confidence of its officials is ill-disguised. It is increasingly apparent that Tripoli is spiralling into desperation and that the fetid regime is fracturing. The Guardian reports that an aide of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Mohammad Ismail, has been in London. Details are scarce but

Thursday

Alex Massie

Clinton’s Contempt for Congress: We’ll send you a press release…

I rather suspect there’d have been a mighty uproar if Dick Cheney had told Congress he’d send members a few press releases to keep them informed of developments in Iraq. This, however, seems to be the Obama administration’s current position vis a vis the kinetic military action in Libya: Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), who asked Clinton about the War Powers Act during a classified briefing, said Clinton and the administration are sidestepping the measure’s provisions giving Congress the ability to put a 60-day time limit on any military action. “They are not committed to following the important part of the War Powers Act,” he told TPM in a phone interview.

Daniel Korski

How to help the rebels

The lack of weaponry is not the only problem plaguing the Libyan rebel forces. Their disordered retreat reveals that they need training, better organisation and in-theatre liaison and support. From what I saw, the Transitional Council is very well organised politically, but there is a general lack of military cohesion. Youthful volunteers and self-armed families are fighting alongside ex-loyalists. (There also seems to be a significant Muslim Brotherhood/Islamist presence, though the Council has detained a number of Al Qaeda associates.) Communications are poor because the rebels rely on mobile phones, which rarely work on the front. NATO has now taken over the air and naval mission, but it will struggle

David Blackburn

The first rat abandons ship?

Moussa Koussa, one of Gaddafi’s closest henchmen, has given himself up in Britain. He left Tripoli supposedly on a diplomatic mission, but arrived in Britain declaring that he “no longer wanted to serve the regime”. This development suggests that the regime is crumbling and pundits opine that the balance has now tipped against Colonel Gaddafi. It has also emerged that President Obama has authorised covert support to be given to the hotch-potch rebellion, which may yet prove decisive. Gaddafi will now have to make do without Koussa’s skill and clout, which may pose the Colonel a problem if he needs diplomacy to save his neck. However, Gaddafi’s blitzkrieg is still

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Audacity of Hypocrisy: Obama’s Lovely Little Libyan Adventure

Hypocrisy is a necessary condition of leadership in a large, modern democracy. Not just there either, now that I think of it. That’s often obviously the case in foreign affairs and clearly so in our present Libyan adventure. It is quite a remarkable undertaking, based on the most remarkable set of circumstances and thanks to a quite remarkable coalition that has given the mission its tepid blessing. Consider… Earlier this week President Obama said he “refused to wait for the images of slaughter and mass graves before taking action.” Consider that for a moment. It’s an interesting choice of words making it clear that this is an Al-Jazeera War. No

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Rebel setbacks create an almighty headache for NATO

The Auk and the Desert Fox ride again. As in 1941-2, the military position along on Libya’s northern coastal road is extremely fluid. After the celebrated rebel gains over the weekend, Gaddafi has counter-attacked without remorse. Skirmishes escalated yesterday and now the rebels are in full retreat (£) from the strategically vital oil town of Ras Lanuf, running from Gaddafi’s superior onslaught. It’s apparent that the rebels need heavy arms to secure their gains, let alone beat Gaddafi. As Pete noted yesterday, the west is (rightly) wary of such a move and there’s nothing to suggest that Arab states are any less reluctant. Besides, it is unclear if the UN

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Mundane duties interrupt Field Marshal Cameron

Cameron was at pains to disguise it, but his impatience finally gave way at PMQs today. What a contrast with the last 24 hours. The nemesis of Gaddafi, the terror of Tripoli, the champion of the rebels, the moral conscience of the West, the world’s latest and greatest international tyrant-buster had to return to earth, and to the House of Commons, to deal with enterprise zones, disability benefits, carbon trading price structures and all the belly-aches of the provincial grockles who put him where he is. What a chore. Ed Miliband had a pop at him on police numbers. The Labour leader asked a clear and simple question. ‘Will there

Daniel Korski

Libya diary: Tobruk

Twelve different checks later and I’m in Free Libya, hurling down the road to Tobruk at 100 mph, with Arabic music blasting away. This place is firmly held rebel territory and most journalists have moved towards the battlefields further west. A pair of beautiful American relief workers tell me just to keep going “to see real action”. They’ve just from Benghazi and are headed back to Egypt. They grab my driver. Tobruk, though, has plenty of action for me; and I need to get back to my programme in Cairo. After all, I’m a think-tanker, not a war correspondent. I stop by the oil refinery which is beginning to run

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Another Libyan question

Far from quiet on Libya’s shifting battlefront. The latest reports are that the rebel advance has stalled, and is now moving backwards in the face of Gaddafi’s overwhelming firepower. Yet as disheartening as this development may be, it is hardly unexpected: America’s General Ham all but described it as an inevitability only a couple of days ago. And so the rebels’ representatives have now made an equally inevitable demand of the politicians congregating in London: arm us, and we can make progress once again. In which case, there’s another question for the pile: to arm, or not to arm? And it is not clear-cut, either way. While the West appears

David Blackburn

It’s happening in Monterrey

Nick Clegg is in Mexico, striving to build a trade relationship. The Guardian reports that Clegg will address the Mexican Senate, in Spanish. He will concentrate on praising the education sector, which he hopes to export. There are also plans to open British universities to affluent Mexicans, and Clegg is being accompanied by four universities vice chancellors and David Willetts. At the moment, trade between Britain and Mexico, the world’s 14th largest economy, is negligible – Clegg claims that Britain accounts for less than 1 percent of rapidly developing Mexico’s imports. There are huge opportunities to expand. UK Trade and Investment has 3 dedicated offices in Mexico and it is

Daniel Korski

Cairo Diary: Libyan transit

The road from Cairo to Salloum, Egypt’s Wild West town on the border with Libya, stretches out into the desert until the patched-up, grey and black cement blurs into the yellow dunes. Throughout the journey, well-kept electricity pylons line the road, while the occasional shepherd looks out from a desolate shed-like house. Otherwise there is nothing to see.  This is the road to war, or away from it. I expected to see more people fleeing the conflict; but at the last roadside café, life seems to be following its normal routine. Bedouin waiters mingle quietly with smugglers, relief workers and the occasional journalist. In the background, President Obama’s speech is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What to do with Gaddafi?

The charge sheet against Colonel Gaddafi in any trial would be a long one. There are his crimes against his own people, his support of terrorism overseas and his wars in Chad. But, however morally right it would be to make Gaddafi face justice, the door should be left open to him to go into exile. Gaddafi and his family leaving Libya would make possible an end to this conflict and prevent huge bloodshed as Gaddafi attempts to cling on to power street by street. The unpleasant truth is that if dictators are left only with the choice between fighting to the bitter end and a trial in the Hague,

Peter Hoskin

Obama sketches out the limits to American involvement in Libya

There was one aspect of Barack Obama’s Big Speech on Libya last night that was particularly curious: for a President who is trying to downplay American involvement in this conflict, he sure went in for good bit of self-aggrandisement. The amount of references to his and his government’s “leadership” — as in, “At my direction, America led an effort with our allies at the United Nations Security Council to pass an historic Resolution” — was really quite striking, at least to these ears. I suppose it’s all about mollifying those voices who argue that the US Pres hasn’t done enough, quickly enough. But it’s hardly going to endear him to