International politics

As Freddy Gray points out, Danny Finkelstein has wheeled out a very odd argument in the Times today (£), in favour of intervention in Syria. We are all subject to ‘omission bias’ says Finkelstein, and uses an example from Scorecasting, a sports psychology book — of the sort most bought by men who can’t catch. Here’s the example: ‘Lets say there’s a disease that kills ten in every 10,000 kids, and a vaccine that protects agains the disease, but kills five in every 10,000. Would you let the doctor inoculate your kid?’ asks Finkelstein. The fact that most people say no, is an example of how prone to ‘Omission Bias’ we are. We’d

Jonathan Bernstein objects to the notion that it’s Chris Christie’s supposed ability to speak like an “average Joe” than makes him a strong candidate to win the Republican party’s 2016 presidential nomination. Specifically he objects to a Chris Cilizza post in which he writes that: Christie has one thing that no other candidate — not Marco Rubio, not Jeb Bush, not Rand Paul, not Scott Walker — who is thinking about running for the GOP nod in 2016 does: An ability to talk like a normal person. As Mitt Romney, John Kerry and Al Gore can attest — and not in a good way — being, or at least seeming,

Johannesburg I just called my pal Colin, a TV news cameraman who has been parked for days outside the Pretoria hospital where Nelson Mandela is being treated. I said, can you please tell me when the old man is going to die so that I can sort out some deadlines with the Spectator? He said, sorry, nobody here knows anything. Then we started talking about how much this is costing world media, especially the American TV networks. Colin is under contract to one such network. Three years ago, the Americans hired two flats overlooking Pretoria’s Union Buildings and ‘filled them with millions of bucks’ worth of gear’ in preparation for the funeral

You know what it’s like. It starts getting hotter. Stickier, too. There’s something in the air you can’t quite put your finger on. But you sense it all the same. A storm is coming. David Cameron’s insistence – in the face of significant opposition from some of his parliamentary colleagues and possibly even more opposition significant from the king across the water, Boris Johnson – that something must be done in Syria is giving me that same feeling. This is exactly the kind of ‘exogenous shock’ that can blow up suddenly, blow coalitions apart and cost Prime Ministers their jobs. Academic observers generally try to avoid predictions, but that doesn’t

Two years too late and with less than full conviction President Obama has finally announced that his administration will aid the Syrian rebels with lethal force. This follows confirmation by the White House last night of what was already well known – that Bashar al-Assad has been using chemical weapons against his own people. Obama’s intervention will be of limited utility. Supplying rebels with heavy arms and anti-aircraft missiles principally help civilians exposed to air raids and scud missile attacks, but will not help the rebels make significant gains. This might be precisely what Obama wants, but he will struggle to limit the extent of American involvement now. Having decided

The wife of President Arafat, Suha, is understandably anxious. Next week, after nine years, she may finally learn whether her husband was assassinated. It will be hard to overestimate the consequences of that knowledge for the Middle East. In 2004, whilst under siege in his Presidential compound, Arafat succumbed to a mysterious illness and was flown to a French military hospital where he died. Much to the frustration of his personal doctor, and despite allegations ranging from an HIV-related disease to Israeli poisoning, no autopsy was ever requested (under French law only Suha could give permission), and the cause of death remains unsolved. I interviewed Suha alongside the Palestinian leadership

First he set the police on his own people, now ‘democratic’ Prime Minister Erdogan is refusing even to meet them. The peace talks he promised are being held not with protestors themselves but with a group of official mediators the protestors have never met. In the days to come, Erdogan will try to persuade the world that he is battling extremists, but as Claire Berlinski points out in her heart-breaking piece in this week’s magazine — written from the centre of the riots in Istanbul last night — the demonstrators were until recently very ordinary citizens from all walks of life, brought together in peaceful protest. She describes the scene

The Ministry of Defence has named the solider killed in Woolwich yesterday as Lee Rigby of the 2nd Battalion of the Royal Regiment of Fusiliers. Rigby, 25 and father of a two-year-old son, was originally from Greater Manchester and served his country in Cyprus and Afghanistan. Here is the MoD’s official statement on the tragedy: ‘It is with great sadness that the Ministry of Defence must announce that the soldier killed in yesterday’s incident in Woolwich, South East London, is believed to be Drummer Lee Rigby, of 2nd Battalion The Royal Regiment of Fusiliers (attached to the Regimental Recruiting Team in London). The soldier’s details are being released at this

Similar attacks in recent years include the beheading of a Dutch film-maker, Theo van Gogh, on a street in Amsterdam in 2004 and the killing of French soldiers by Mohammed Merah in Toulouse. Over recent years, those who have warned that such attacks would come here have been attacked as ‘racists’, ‘fascists’ and — most commonly — ‘Islamophobes’. A refusal to recognise the actual threat (a growingly radicalised Islam) has dominated most of our media and nearly all our political class. Watching this roll out has made me — and most other ordinary people — feel sick. It should always have been obvious where such idiocy and denial would lead.