George osborne

Friday

Peter Hoskin

How bad is it, Mervyn?

Remember when Alistair Darling said that we faced the worst financial crisis for sixty years? Now Mervyn King has trumped that piece of doom-mongery by telling Channel 4 last night that “This is undoubtedly the biggest financial crisis the world economy has ever faced” (see video above, three minutes in). The Governor of the Bank of England saying that this is the worst crisis ever? On the day that he rushed another £75 billion into the economy? As mood music goes, it is a particularly dreadful symphony.       It is also the sort of situation that Ed Balls will relish, especially with the Pre-Budget Report approaching. And it is true:

Thursday

Clarissa Tan

Another round of Easing

So the Bank of England has pulled the lever on a second round of Quantitative Easing. Apparently sluggish economic growth, plus more ominous signs from the eurozone, have persuaded the central bank it can’t wait any longer to print more money. But given the evidence from QE1 – only a small boost to GDP accompanied by extra inflation – it’s a big gamble. Mervyn King & the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee clearly believe that more money in the system is what’s needed to kick-start growth. But even they admit that QE1 didn’t live up to expectations, so why should QE2? In the meantime, quantitative easing as an instrument

Will Straw

Another voice: Five lessons from Conservative party conference

Here’s the latest in our Another Voice series of posts, which give prominence to viewpoints outside the normal Coffee House fold. This time it’s the IPPR’s Associate Director, Will Straw, with his five-point take on the fringe events of Tory conference, and the lessons that might be learned from them: 1. The Tories know that winning a working majority in 2015 is no easy task. The most popular fringe event according to Fringelist.com was ConservativeHome’s event on ‘How the Conservatives can win the next election.’ Reflecting his remarks from the panel, YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare wrote yesterday that, “today’s electoral maths makes an overall a majority a mountain to climb”.  

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Cameron wants to offer the “right” leadership

As flat as flat champagne — that’s the verdict on this year’s Tory conference, which is ironic given that the two year ban on champagne was lifted this year. Bruce Anderson argues that the dour atmosphere is intentional. These are serious times for sombre politics, not the frivolity occasioned by a conference at a seaside resort. David Cameron’s first objective, Bruce says, is to reassure the country and present himself as a leader for a crisis. Cameron’s conference speech has been widely trailed by most news outlets this morning. Tim Montgomerie has a comprehensive overview of the speech. Cameron’s first challenge is to emote: these are “anxious times” for ordinary

Tuesday

David Blackburn

What Fleet Street made of Osborne’s speech

The abiding image of this conference may be the sight of Steve Hilton apparently shepherding the turbulent Andrew Tyrie into a booth, from which Tyrie emerged singing George Osborne’s praises. “A huge step forward…you can some consistencies,” he said, which was an endorsement of sorts. What did everyone else make of it? As you can see, David Cameron looked morose at times, but the mood in the hall oscillated between sobriety and quiet optimism, matching Osborne’s blend of austerity and promise for the future. Fleet Street is similarly conflicted: no paper gives him an unqualified endorsement, but no paper entirely rubbishes him either. The Times concludes (£), as Tyrie did on Saturday,

Monday

Fraser Nelson

What Osborne got right

After being mean about Osborne’s sub-prime corporate debt policy, I should say that he got a lot right in his speech earlier today. His delivery was the best I’ve seen: he looked relaxed, and sounded conversational. This suits him: he’s not a hell-and-brimstone kind of politician. He dealt with the dire subject matter in a confident way and was not in the least defensive. And he showed a glimpse of the sunlit uplands, so conspicuously absent from Vince Cable’s doom-laden speech a fortnight ago. That said, it seemed apparent from the rest of his speech that he is bracing himself – and us – for a downward surge on the economic

David Blackburn

Osborne’s serenade

As James said, Osborne’s speech was a potent blend of economics and politics. One passage in particular stood out politically: when Osborne referred to those who booed when Ed Miliband mentioned Tony Blair during his speech. He said: ‘You know, there was a time when Labour seemed briefly to realise that to win elections it had to accommodate itself to the real world, stop being anti-business, make peace with middle Britain. Not now. It’s over. Once they cheered Tony Blair, now they boo him. I fought three elections against Tony Blair, and I know the damage he did to our country. But it wasn’t just him they were booing last

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Explaining credit easing

Having had a few more discussions, I’m a bit clearer about the government’s plan to do credit easing. The full details of the scheme will be released on the 29th of November as part of the autumn statement. But I hear that the scheme is intended to be worth between the high billions and the low tens of billions and it will be aimed specifically at small and medium sized enterprises, although it could be extended to all companies and expanded up to somewhere in the region of £50bn if the credit markets were to seize up.  I also understand that major supply side measures are being saved up for

Matthew Sinclair

Osborne’s carbon conceits

George Osborne told a Conservative Party increasingly wary of expensive climate policies that Britain needs to “cut [its] carbon emissions no slower but also no faster than our fellow countries in Europe. That’s what I’ve insisted on in the recent carbon budget.”  What he actually insisted on was what Chris Huhne described as “a review of progress in early 2014 to ensure our own carbon targets are in line with the EU’s”.  Even if that review is serious, and energy intensive industries have every reason to be sceptical, it is only going to hold our policy to the same standard as today.  The current targets require us to cut our

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne’s next trick: sub-prime companies?

About 15 years ago, Bill Clinton wanted to promote home ownership among the low-paid, but was annoyed that banks wouldn’t lend freely or cheaply to that group. So, the federal government intervened with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae selling government-backed mortgages at knockdown rates. Nothing showed up on the national debt, because the loan would — in theory — be repaid. The seeds for the sub-prime crisis were sewn.   Today, George Osborne wants to promote recovery and is annoyed than banks won’t lend freely or cheaply enough to small businesses. So, the Treasury will intervene by lending money indirectly by backing a new bond market that lends cash to

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Osborne’s big step

As George Osborne was addressing Tory conference, Standard and Poor reaffirmed Britain’s triple A rating. For the Osborne team, it sent out the perfect message — their deficit strategy is keeping the nation creditworthy. It was their piece of conference theatre for this year. The Chancellor’s address was a sombre affair. But, in some ways, it was his most impressive conference performance. It was a classic Osborne blend of politics and economics, but distinguished by a clear and precise analysis of why the economy was not recovering. Osborne’s big policy announcement was that the Treasury was now exploring credit easing. I’ll have more on this soon, but essentially the idea

David Blackburn

Full text of Osborne’s conference speech

Today, all around our country – indeed, all around the world – people are anxious, worried about their jobs, their families, how they’re going to pay the bills.   I come to you with words of resolve, determination, confidence and belief.   Belief that the British people will overcome this challenge as we have overcome so many before.   Together, we will ride out the storm.     I don’t want anyone to underestimate the gravity of the situation facing the world economy.   But I also don’t want anyone to think that the situation is hopeless; that there is nothing we can do.   Yes the difficulties are great.

David Blackburn

Osborne, the caring chancellor

George Osborne is pursuing the Tesco strategy: every little helps. In his conference speech today, he will announce that he has found £805 million to freeze council tax next year, which will save taxpayers £72. Not a lot, you might think – and that’s Labour’s view – but the chancellor is adamant that he won’t “stand on the sidelines” while living standards contract. Substantial tax cuts have been ruled out by Osborne, but he is expected to make further announcements on benefits. Last week, it was rumoured that he would reverse changes to child benefit for a parent who earned around £42,000 per year. (There are also rumours that the income tax

Sunday

David Blackburn

Shapps sharpens the Right to Buy

It’s a day for growth initiatives. In addition to those described earlier, George Osborne has announced that Whitehall’s annual underspend will be reinvested into capital spending projects. The emphasis on infrastructure echoes Danny Alexander’s statements during the Lib Dem conference, when the Treasury secretary disclosed that existing programmes would be brought forward and funded by recalibrating budgets. So there seems to be agreement between the two parties about bolstering the coalition’s growth strategy in a certain way, which may explain why the Tories are so determined to resist pressure to introduce politically awkward tax cuts. Grant Shapps has also been elaborating on the changes to the Right to Buy. He

David Blackburn

Hague: No deficit funded tax cuts

William Hague’s just been on Dermot Murnaghan’s Sky show. They shot the breeze for a bit, gabbing about foreign affairs and the recent targeted assassinations on Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, then the conversation moved on to tax cuts as an economic stimulus. Hague laughed off the suggestion, saying that the US is in its current crisis because for years it has concentrated on offering tax cuts rather than controlling its deficits. Britain will not make that mistake, he said. ‘No deficit funded tax cuts’ was a line first pursued by David Cameron ten days ago in a speech to the Canadian parliament (although, as Fraser has noted, it has

David Blackburn

Gabbing about growth

Growth is the word on Tory lips at present. David Cameron responded to Andrew Tyrie’s criticism when he arrived in Manchester yesterday evening, saying that the government has “an incredibly active growth strategy”. And there has been some ‘action on growth’ in the last 24 hours. The right-to-buy is being resuscitated. And the coalition has announced that it will release thousands of acres of publicly owned land to build 100,000 houses and support 200,000 jobs by 2015. The plan will be paid for by selling houses later down the line; the government hopes that the taxpayer will make a profit under this scheme. This reform might stoke the already over-heated

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Osborne and tax cuts

“Top Conservative despairs of Cameron growth plan,” says The Times’ front page today. While The Daily Telegraph’s reads: “No tax cuts before the next election, says Osborne”. The two stories are related. British economic growth is evaporating, and more than a few Tory MPs are worried that the Chancellor doesn’t have a coherent growth strategy and that he doesn’t seem to care. Osborne’s cheery interview with Robert Winnett and Ben Brogan will do nothing to allay such fears. He repeats his position on tax cuts: that, while desirable, they are likedessert once the nation has eaten its main course of cuts and tax rises. He appears to rule out using tax cuts

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Alan Duncan predicts partial Greek default

On Any Questions, Alan Duncan—a minister of state at the Department to International Development and a longstanding ally of the Foreign Secretary William Hague—has just predicted a partial Greek default. He told the programme that ‘I guess what’s going to happen is there will be a partial default and some kind of agreement’. There have long been rumours in Westminster that the British government’s position was now to—in private—push for an orderly default. Indeed, George Osborne’s comment in his Telegraph interview today that the eurozone “need to end this endless speculation about Greece — they have got to come to a decision and stick to it” implied that. But ministers

David Blackburn

Tyrie’s blast spices up pre-conference

Treasury Committee Chairman, Andrew Tyrie, has shaken the nascent Tory conference with a coruscating statement about the government’s growth plan and general legislative programme. He writes, in a detailed policy document for the Centre for Policy Studies that is political in its emphasis as much as it is economic: ‘There is much to do, and it is not just a question of gaps in policy. A coherent and credible plan for the long-term economic growth rate of the UK economy is needed. The Big Society; localism; the green strategy — whether right or wrong; these and other initiatives have seemed at best irrelevant to the task in hand, if not

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron and Osborne respond to Miliband

Senior Tories are saying that there won’t be many attacks on Ed Miliband from the party’s big hitters at conference. They are concerned that aggressive assaults on him could win him public sympathy. But both Cameron and Osborne respond to one of the central arguments of Miliband’s speech in their pre-conference turns. Cameron writes in the Mail that ‘the role for government is not to single out good and bad industries, it’s to make it easy as possible for all industries, all businesses, to grow, invest and take people on.’ While as the Telegraph reports, Osborne ‘scorns Mr Miliband’s suggestion this week that the Government should distinguish between “producers” and