George osborne

Regional pay: a new coalition divide

As if Lords reform, communications surveillance powers and same-sex marriage weren’t enough, it looks like there’s another issue that’ll cause a good deal of friction between Liberal Democrat and Conservative MPs: plans for regional public sector pay bargaining. It’s something George Osborne is understandably keen on — James laid out the political and economic reasons behind it just before the Budget — but now the Lib Dems are making clear that they don’t share the Chancellor’s enthusiasm. In the Q&A after his pupil premium speech on Monday, Nick Clegg said: ‘Nothing has been decided. I feel very, very strongly, as an MP from South Yorkshire with a lot of people in

James Forsyth

Cameron vents his euro frustration

David Cameron’s speech today is a sign of his frustration with the eurozone. Numbers 10 and 11 are increasingly irritated by how eurozone leaders are refusing to accept the logic of their project. What Downing Street is keen to avoid is another wasted year as Angela Merkel gears up for her reelection campaign. So, intriguingly, we see Britain throwing her weight behind Hollande’s support for project bonds. Cameron also uses the speech to again back eurobonds, which Merkel is firmly opposed to as she knows that this would mean Germany effectively standing behind everyone else’s debt. I can’t see a resolution to this crisis coming anytime soon, though. The economics

Cameron gets tough with the eurozone

Today’s PMQs will be remembered for one thing, Cameron saying that the eurozone had to ‘make up or it is looking at a potential break-up’. This is a distinct hardening of the government’s line on the single currency. Cameron’s comment was particularly striking coming just days after George Osborne said that ‘open speculation’ about whether or not Greece would leave the euro was ‘doing real damage across the whole European economy’. However those close to Cameron are not resiling from the remark. Instead, I understand that we can expect more from the Prime Minister on this subject when he makes a speech on the economy tomorrow. The break-up of the

Basel III and the EU’s strange desire not to compete

Greece is the centre of European attention, but as George Osborne met with other EU finance ministers today there was another issue bubbling in the background — Basel III. This had been brewing for a while and is yet one of those matters that threatened to isolate Britain from the rest of the EU (though some would argue this is a good place to be). The Chancellor this morning appears to have agreed to the Basel III accord, which stipulates the amount and quality of capital that banks are required to keep. But this was after much haggling — and an Osborne outburst where he said signing on to the

How Britain is using spin to con the bond markets

Austerity, austerity, austerity. The A-word is cropping up everywhere at the moment, whether in France or Greece or Germany. And the UK isn’t immune from it either. If there is anything on which Britain’s political factions agree, it is the reality of fiscal austerity. Whether it’s Ed Balls banging on about ‘too far and too fast’, or the coalition saying that their programme of painful austerity is essential if the UK is to defend its triple-A ‘safe haven’ status, this is something on which our political class has reached consensus.   But, as we at Tullett Prebon argued in a briefing paper yesterday (available here as a pdf), the tale

Coulson easily handles his Leveson test

Andy Coulson’s evidence to the Leveson Inquiry was a reminder of why he rose so quickly. He never said more than he had to and never let his ego interfere with his judgment. It is a testament to his skill that we essentially learnt nothing new from his evidence this afternoon. But it should be remembered that Coulson wasn’t on that bad a wicket today. The Leveson Inquiry isn’t going to overlap with the criminal investigations going on and so there wasn’t much time spent on hacking or on payments to the police. Instead, the questions focused on his relations with politicians and Cameron and Osborne in particular. Helped by

Whatever they say, Lords reform will remain on politcians’ minds

Have our politicos looked at last week’s turnout numbers, and thought ‘y’know, we might be a bit cut-off after all’? Reason I ask is because they’re all tripping over themselves today to downplay the significance of Lords reform, and focus the conversation on The Issues That Actually Matter. This, as James said earlier, is what George Osborne has been up to throughout the day. Ed Balls did likewise during an appearance on the Sunday Politics with Andrew Neil. And, most significantly, even Vince Cable echoed their sentiments in his interview on Sky’s Murnaghan Show. ‘We need to just quickly and quietly get on with this,’ he said of reforming the

James Forsyth

Osborne brings it back to the economy

It wasn’t, as expected, Nick Clegg on Marr this morning but George Osborne as the coalition attempted to move the argument back onto the economy. Osborne kept stressing that the government would focus on the things that ‘really matter’ to people; code for we’re not going to spend too long on Lords reform. Indeed, given that Nick Clegg has turned down a compromise on that, we now appear to be heading for — at most — a referendum on the subject. Osborne defended his deficit reduction programme, arguing that the lack of growth was a result of the Eurozone crisis and the oil price spike. But he did concede that

Their drinks are still on us

It has been a busy day for Commons committees, and I don’t just mean the education and media select committees either. The John Bercow-chaired House of Commons Commission has released a briefing note outlining some of its recent decisions relating to the running of the House. It covers three areas: ‘Mobile devices for members’ (aka, iPads for MPs); ‘Trees in Portcullis House’ (let’s keep ‘em, so long as we can make ‘em cheaper); and ‘Alcohol policy’ (more on which below). It’s the last of these that will probably get the most attention, not least because of Eric Joyce’s recent misadventures. So what does Team Bercow recommend? Nothing much, in truth,

The pensioners’ benefits battle

During the last election campaign, David Cameron repeatedly promised to protect pensioner benefits. In one of the most heated moments in the Prime Ministerial debates, Cameron accused Labour of telling ‘lies’ when they said the Tories would cut things like the winter fuel allowance, the free TV license for the elderly and the like. For this reason, these benefits have, basically, been protected in government despite all the other cuts. But both the Liberal Democrats and Iain Duncan Smith have been arguing behind the scenes that these benefits shouldn’t be protected, that they are not an efficient use of money. It is in this context, that Iain Duncan Smith’s intervention

IDS turns up the volume on welfare cuts

Iain Duncan Smith is quietly spoken. His interview with today’s Times (£) is a case in point. The political elite are ‘distanced’ from the people, he says. The Leveson inquiry is there to ‘clean the house’. The job of government is to govern well, not be loved. The ‘omnishambles’ will pass because David Cameron has ‘the capability to pull himself and us all through’. But, amid these placid notes, is a subito fortissimo. The welfare secretary sets himself against George Osborne’s wish that a further £10 billion in welfare cuts be found by 2016. He says: ‘This is my discussion with him… My view is that it’s not [all going

Fox fires a shot across the aid budget’s bows

As Pete says, Liam Fox’s piece this morning calling for more supply-side reform is broadly helpful to the Chancellor and has been written with his approval. Strikingly, the former defence secretary — who still has a constituency on the right of the party — goes out of his way to back one of the most contentious Osborne decisions, increasing the British contribution to the IMF. But there is one line in the article that carries with it not the air of helpful advice but menace: ‘It must be understood that further reductions in budgets for security, leaving overseas aid untouched, would be met with fury by most Conservatives.’ This is

Osborne’s turning point

As Paul Goodman suggests, there is something significant about Liam Fox’s article for the Daily Telegraph this morning. It’s not that we haven’t heard similar from the former Defence Secretary before — we have. It’s more that his economic prescriptions are being made, we learn from the Sun, with the ‘explicit approval’ of his buddy George Osborne. And what are those prescriptions? Well, the main one is for further spending cuts, and Fox also waxes enthusastic about greater deregulation and about protecting the defence budget (at the expense of international aid). He also has some firm advice for the Lib Dems. ‘They make up only one sixth — not one

Did Balls cause the recession?

We take a close interest in Ed Balls and his use of figures here at Coffee House, and it seems that this interest is reciprocated. The Shadow Chancellor has just been on Daily Politics where he revealed himself as a regular reader. He was confronted with some of the facts about spending and the deficit — and whether there have been ‘deep, harsh cuts,’ as he has falsely claimed. When Andrew Neil presented him with the numbers from our earlier blog, he replied that this was cash terms. He’s right, but adjust for inflation and core government spending (that is, stripping out debt and dole) is down just 0.8 per

Balls’s argument is detached from reality

So who killed the recovery? Ed Balls points to a ‘recession made in Downing St,’ and has gone on a victory tour today. ‘I have consistently warned David Cameron and George Osborne for over a year that going too far and too fast on spending cuts would backfire,’ he says. ‘Arrogantly and complacently they ignored those warnings, and the country is paying a heavy price.’ Facts are always the remedy to an outbreak of Balls. The government releases monthly spending figures, which show an increase overall. That’s due to the rising cost of debt and dole, you might say, but strip those two out and you have what the ONS

Our economy fell back into recession

Or at least technically-speaking it did. The figures released this morning suggest that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, which is the second quarter of shrinkage in a row after last winter’s 0.3 per cent fall. The numbers are tiny, but the politics is huge. It’s a double dip — and you can expect Ed Miliband to mention that fact again and again in PMQs later, with dread accompaniment from Ed Balls and his hand gestures. There are some caveats, of course. This is only a preliminary estimate, so the Office for National Statistics could revise it upwards at some point. It’s

The Eurocrisis persists

Holland and Hollande; they’re the non-identical twins that are causing palpitations across Europe today. Holland, because the country’s Prime Minister yesterday resigned after failing to agree a package of cuts for his country’s budget. Hollande, because he’s the socialist candidate set to win the presidential election in France, probably eroding that country’s commitment to fiscal consolidation in the process. The markets quivered in fear at this morning’s headlines — and what they mean for the eurozone — even if they have, in some parts, slightly recovered since. It’s all another reminder that the Eurocrisis just isn’t going away — neither for countries such as France and the Netherlands, nor for

The state of the public finances

£126 billion. As we discover today, that’s how much the government borrowed in 2011-12 — the fiscal year that’s just ended — pushing the national debt up to £1.02 trillion. The figures show the deficit falling by 10 per cent in real terms on 2010-11, but it has come in slightly over the £122 billion the OBR predicted in March last year, and well above the £116 billion it forecast when Osborne delivered his first Budget. So the fiscal consolidation is proceeding, albeit a bit slower than planned. So far, it’s mainly being achieved through raising revenues — particularly VAT receipts, which are up 10 per cent on last year.

Nadine Dorries: Cameron and Osborne ‘are two arrogant posh boys’

Nadine Dorries has form when it comes to attacking her party’s leadership, but this sets a new high water mark (from about 1:48 in): “playlist=http://playlists.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17813706A/playlist.sxml&config=http://www.bbc.co.uk/player/emp/2_0_39/config/default.xml&embedReferer=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/&domId=emp-17813706-76418&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&mediatorHref=http://open.live.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/5/select/version/2.0/mediaset/journalism-pc/vpid/&fmtjDocURI=/news/uk-politics-17813706&config_settings_showUpdatedInFooter=true&uxHighlightColour=0xff0000&config_plugin_fmtjLiveStats_pageType=eav1&config_settings_showShareButton=true&holdingImage=http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/59806000/jpg/_59806020_jex_1385918_de28-1.jpg&embedPageUrl=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17813706&config_plugin_fmtjLiveStats_edition=Domestic&config_settings_autoPlay=true&enable3G=true&config_plugin_fmtjLiveStats_pageType=eav6&config_settings_autoPlay=false&config_settings_showFooter=true&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&config_settings_showPopoutCta=false&config_settings_addReferrerToPlaylistRequest=true”> Via the Daily Politics.

Is Alexander ushering in Austerity Squared?

23rd April, 2012 — mark it down in your calendars, CoffeeHousers. For, after weeks of froth and fury about tax, today’s the day when the government focused on spending cuts again. In a speech to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Danny Alexander has announced what are, in theory, a couple of new restraints on spending. First, government departments will have to share information about their spending with the Treasury on a monthly basis, and let Osborne & Co. pore over it. And, second, they will also have to find extra capacity in their existing budgets for unforeseen expenditure, rather than just relying on the Treasury’s central reserve. Alexander described these