George osborne

The IMF’s ‘too far, too fast’ warning

There is great excitement in some circles at a paper from the International Monetary Fund which has emerged in the past 24 hours. This piece of research warns that cutting government spending too quickly can weaken economies permanently and lead to even deeper recessions. It says: The analysis in this paper shows that withdrawing fiscal stimuli too quickly in economies where output is already contracting can prolong their recessions without generating the expected fiscal saving. This is particularly true if the consolidation is centred around cuts to public expenditure – likely reflecting the fact that reductions in public spending have powerful effects on the consumption of financially-constrained agents in the economy

MPs and voters turn on Osborne

The Treasury received some bad news today, so it sent out Chloe Smith to respond instead of her boss George Osborne. The economic secretary made the same point as Fraser about Labour’s alternative strategy when she responded to the latest borrowing figures this afternoon. She said: ‘Their strategy would be to borrow more and to spend more and we cannot take that kind of decision in these circumstances.’ But she then added: ‘What these figures really show is the importance of sticking to the plan that has won Britain international credibility.’ The ‘international credibility’ line is quite interesting as presumably Smith is referring to Britain’s credit rating, which Danny Alexander

Darling: Osborne has given up on growth

‘Unless you do something now it will be years before we recover.’ This morning those words come from former chancellor Alistair Darling in an open letter to George Osborne, but they could just as easily be from a member of his own backbench, or from Boris. Darling’s letter, published in the Sunday People, accuses both Mr Osborne and the Bank of England of having ‘given up on any plan for growth’. ‘Your policies since 2010 simply haven’t worked, you need another plan – call it plan B, call it whatever you like,’ he writes. He’s essentially saying the same thing as Boris Johnson did this week, but using slightly more

Danny Alexander’s real enemy

Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is to drop his normally conciliatory voice to attack the Tories at the Lib Dem party conference in Brighton. So what? you may well ask. The mild-mannered Alexander is unlikely to strike the fear of God into his listeners, assuming that anyone beyond the conference hall will be listening, or indeed that the conference hall is full: Brighton being lovely at that time of year. Besides, bursts of splenetic outrage at one’s coalition partners have become a feature of conferences, particularly since last year’s unhappy AV referendum. There is, dare I say it, a suggestion that they are choreographed for the TV

Reshuffle bingo

It’s a strange old world when a Prime Minister backing his own Chancellor is worth reporting. But this afternoon the Prime Minister was asked by Sky News whether he was going to reshuffle George Osborne. Naturally, he answered: ‘George Osborne is doing an excellent job in very difficult circumstances and he has my full support in going on and doing that job. He’s not going anywhere.’ Kay Burley then pressed Cameron on whether this meant Osborne would still be Chancellor at the next election. He replied: ‘Yes.’ Now, this was quite obvious anyway. Osborne’s stock is certainly down amongst Tory MPs, many of whom are still smarting after watching the

Osborne seizes on S&P ratings relief

You’d think that after the bad economic news of the past week, George Osborne might have reverted to submarine mode as soon as he possibly could, moving quietly under the cover of the Olympics. But this afternoon he has stuck a periscope up with this message: the world has confidence that Britain is dealing with its economic plan. It’s a bold statement to make after Wednesday’s GDP figures, and Labour has already mocked him for doing so, but Osborne is responding to the announcement overnight by Standard & Poor’s that the UK will continue to enjoy an AAA credit rating. The ratings agency said: ‘We project that, despite recent weakness,

The problem isn’t that Osborne is too political but that Number 10 isn’t political enough

There’s been a lot of attention over the past few days as to whether George Osborne is too political. But what should really worry Tories is not how political George Osborne is, but how unpolitical Number 10 is. There are far too many Tories who think that politics is something you do in opposition not government. This view is profoundly mistaken. As I say in my column this week, city mayors were a major plank of David Cameron’s vision for reviving England’s cities. Yet all but one of the mayoral referendums were lost. Why? Because voters were never shown that mayors wouldn’t just be another politician. The Number 10 machine

Isabel Hardman

The post-GDP sleeve-rolling begins

David Cameron is using the Olympics today to strike a more upbeat tone after yesterday’s GDP gloom. The Prime Minister is speaking at 10am at a global investment conference to pitch for business from 180 chief executives from around the world. Cameron will tell the conference that he is ‘determined that Britain will be on of the great success stories’ in rebuilding its economy, and will say: ‘There will be no more passionate supporter of Team GB than me. But I’ve got a job to do this summer. And a big part of that job is to get behind British business… and do everything I can to help secure the

How big are the cuts so far?

‘Osborne’s austerity is killing the recovery.’ It’s a familiar refrain, one that we hear every time there’s bad economic news. And, sure enough, today’s terrible GDP stats have sparked yet another rendition. Take this, for example, from the TUC’s Brendan Barber: ‘The government’s austerity strategy is failing so spectacularly that is has wiped out the recovery completely.’ But very rarely is that austerity quantified. Just how big are these cuts that have supposedly crippled the British economy? Well, according to the latest ONS figures, total managed expenditure stayed roughly flat in the coalition’s first year, before being cut by just 1.8 per cent in real terms (£12.6 billion) in 2011-12. But this

Isabel Hardman

The work experience Chancellor

Lord Oakeshott has just sparked some outrage by arguing on the World at One that George Osborne, who he described as a ‘Chancellor on work experience’ should be replaced by Vince Cable. He said: ‘I do think that George Osborne, he’s got no business experience, he’s never worked outside politics, and you know, he’s doing surprisingly well for a Chancellor on work experience, but really in a torrid time like this I think we do need the absolute best people available.’ A now-backbench Lib Dem peer announcing he would like to see a Lib Dem leading the Treasury team isn’t exactly the most surprising revelation. But what was interesting was

Isabel Hardman

The blue vs yellow fight to make green policy

Ed Davey has managed to win his first major battle as Energy Secretary – against the might of the Treasury, no less. James blogged earlier in the week that the battle between Lib Dem and Tory on cutting subsidies for onshore wind generation would be a test of how well the coalition is actually working, and this morning’s report in the Financial Times that George Osborne and Davey have managed to find a compromise is an illustration of that partnership in action. The newspaper reports that the dispute became so heated that Nick Clegg and David Cameron intervened to hammer down a final agreement. In the blue corner, Osborne was concerned not just by

The secret seven

David Cameron’s decision to convene an inner Cabinet of seven Tories to advise him is a sensible move. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, calling this group together shows that Cameron knows he needs help handling his party. I understand that it meets regularly with a particular emphasis on the Conservative party side of coalition management. One Cabinet minister told me recently that the Prime Minister spends more time on coalition management than any other subject. To date, this has too often been at the expense of party management. Inevitably, if you spend most of the time thinking about what the Liberal Democrats will accept you begin to

Osborne’s grim morning

‘Unfortunately, it’s not enough.’ That is, broadly, the conclusion of John Longworth, the director of the British Chamber of Commerce, who has penned a visceral critique of the government’s economic policy in the Observer. Nothing, it seems, is sufficient: half-hearted infrastructure investment, non-existent aviation policy, lethargic borrowing to business, and regulatory reform that leaves businesses ‘mired in a thicket of red tape’. Longworth laments economic policy being determined by ‘political short-termism, electoral calculation and presentation’. This swipe at George Osborne adds to the sense that professional and international bodies are turning on the chancellor, after the IMF’s warning last week (rather callous of it, considering that Osborne has been following

Public finance statistics point to a miserable autumn statement

Today’s round of public finance statistics bring mixed news for the government. The headlines have focused on the fact that borrowing last month — at £14.4 billion — was £0.5 billion higher than in June 2011. But considering that the monthly borrowing figures end up being revised by an average of £1.7 billion (usually downwards), we shouldn’t get too fixated on a difference of a few hundred million. What is perhaps more worrying is the trend in the financial year so far. Superficially, the numbers look pretty good: a total of £14.9 billion in borrowing since April, compared to £38.4 billion in the same three months of last year. But this year’s

When should George Osborne switch to Plan B?

Announcements from the International Monetary Fund are worded in such a way that everyone reading them comes away with something slightly different. So shortly after today’s report on the UK economy was released, Ed Balls put out a statement saying the report was a ‘very serious warning to the Chancellor that urgent action to boost jobs and growth is needed’. He concluded his press release by asking ‘how much worse do things have to get before the Chancellor finally changes course?’. Now, today’s report from the IMF is not cheery reading for George Osborne. It passes this bleak judgement on the economy: ‘Recovery has stalled. Post-crisis repair and rebalancing of the UK

Restoring the coalition’s credibility

The coalition’s infrastructure shopping spree to cheer itself up after a miserable few weeks continues today. George Osborne and Danny Alexander are offering guarantees on up to £40 billion of ‘ready or nearly ready’ projects such as transport, communications and energy. They are also announcing a £6 billion temporary lending programme and a £5 billion export guarantee facility, which will give long-term support for British exporters. Today’s announcements are clever because they don’t commit any extra money, using the government’s balance sheet purely to guarantee the projects and get them off the ground. Osborne and Alexander have written a joint comment piece for PoliticsHome, in which they point out that their efforts

Osborne’s ‘hideous choice’ if growth downgrades continue

So the IMF has revised its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth downwards — to 0.2 in 2012 and 1.4 in 2013 from the 0.8 per cent and 2.0 respectively it predicted in April. It’s bad news, certainly — not least because we’ve been downgraded more than most other countries, and we’re now forecast to grow more slowly than Germany and (this year) France. But it’s worth bearing in mind that the IMF — for all its ability to drive headlines — is just one of many organisations playing the forecasting game, and these downgrades actually just bring them into line with the average. What’s worrying for George Osborne — and his fiscal

J’accuse backfires

Andrea Leadsom seems to have backed down a little from last night’s suggestion that George Osborne ‘should apologise’ for saying that Ed Balls had ‘questions to answer’ about Libor. This morning, perhaps after a cheery morning phone call from someone at CCHQ, she took to the airwaves to clarify what she had said:  ‘Look, I was talking about a very specific point last night, which is the extent to which the Labour party may have leaned on the Bank of England, which Paul Tucker completely refuted. I want to be very clear here: this is an inquiry about the banks’ behaviour, and Ed Balls still has a huge amount to

Isabel Hardman

The Osborne/Balls stalemate

George Osborne and Ed Balls are now locked into something of a staring match over the Libor scandal, with one waiting for the other to flinch. After Paul Tucker’s evidence to the Treasury Select Committee yesterday cleared the Shadow Chancellor and his ministerial colleagues in the Labour government of leaning on the Bank of England, Balls demanded an apology from Osborne for his comments to the Spectator. Andrea Leadsom, one of the members of the committee, saw enough in Tucker’s testimony to publicly call for an apology. This is significant because Leadsom is not the sort of MP who openly briefs against her bosses. She may have a slightly rebellious

Tucker denies Labour leant on Bank over Libor

So Labour ministers did not ‘lean on’ the Bank of England to encourage lowballing of Libor rates, according to Paul Tucker. The Deputy Governor of the Bank told the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon that he had held conversations with officials about how able Barclays was to fund its operations. This is the exchange between Pat McFadden and Mr Tucker. McFadden asked whether any minister had tried to ‘lean on’ him over Libor: ‘Absolutely not.’ Asked whether Shriti Vadera had leant on him: ‘I don’t think that I spoke to Shriti Vadera throughout this whole process.’ Ed Balls? ‘No’ Other ministers? ‘No’ He confirmed that the ‘senior official’ that he