George osborne

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

We’ve shown forecasts are unreliable, jokes OBR chief

‘We’ve done quite a good job at demonstrating the limitations of economic forecasting,’ half-joked Office for Budget Responsibility Chairman Robert Chote at the start of his Treasury Select Committee appearance this morning. And he spent a lot of his answers emphasising those limitations, while robustly defending himself against charges that the OBR is just making it up. His challenge was to explain to sceptical MPs why we should pay attention to the OBR’s new forecasts, given that their previous ones have missed by so much. For the OBR’s economic forecasts — rather than its forecasts for the public finances — Chote admitted that ‘we don’t have access to any information

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Ed Balls says Labour will oppose the Welfare Uprating Bill

Ed Balls gave the clearest indication yet today that his party would vote against the government’s plans to cap benefit rises to 1 per cent rather than in line with inflation. Speaking at Treasury Questions, the Shadow Chancellor said: ‘It’s important for members on both sides of the House know the answers to the questions I asked the Chancellor. First of all, 60 per cent of families hit by his tax and benefit changes are in work. And according to the IFS, as a result of the Autumn Statement measures, a working family, the average one earner couple will be £534 a year worse off by 2015, a working family

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Citi: Osborne “no longer has credible plans” to tackle debt

Britain will lose its AAA rating within 18 months because George Osborne ‘no longer has credible plans to put the debt/GDP ratio on a stable or declining path’ according to Citi. Its verdict is worth reading in full (pdf) and is important because it adds weight to the idea that — as a result of Osborne’s lack of progress on the deficit — 2013 will be the year of the British downgrade. What did it for Michael Saunders, the Citi analyst, was seeing Osborne take what James Forsyth refers to in this week’s political column as the St Augustine approach to deficit reduction: ‘Lord, let me balance the books but

Jonathan Jones

The public’s verdict on the Autumn Statement

We’ve only had two days to digest it, but the early signs from YouGov are that George Osborne’s Autumn Statement has gone down a lot better than his March Budget. The Chancellor’s personal ratings are still dire – just 24 per cent think he’s doing a good job — but that’s a lot better than 15 per cent five months ago. His approval rating had tanked after the Budget, but Osborne does seem to have turned that around: And the government’s approval rating on the economy similarly seems to have been helped by the Autumn Statement, and is back up to pre-Budget levels: Though a 35 per cent approval rating

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Osborne’s ghost of Christmas future

There was plenty to welcome in George Osborne’s budget, from the proposed corporation tax cut to scrapping the 3p fuel duty rise. But to read Jonathan’s seven-graph summary is to realise that Osborne’s 2010 plan is not now enough. I look at this in my Telegraph column today. Here’s a festive summary of my pain points:- Osbrownism – the ghost of Christmas Present  Osborne’s words – tough on deficit, dealing with debt – are very encouraging. The figures: not so much. The main features of Osborne’s plan are identical to the Brown plan he inherited. ·      Slow-motion deficit cuts (Francis Maude on Question Time last night boasted about cutting deficit by 25%

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

How George Osborne took on Ed Miliband on the cost of living

In addition to his effective attack on Labour’s welfare policy, George Osborne used the Autumn Statement to take on Ed Miliband on another key electoral battleground. Over the past few months, the Labour leader has been trying to convince voters that he has the solution to their cost of living woes. His biggest offer so far has been the Living Wage, which sounds lovely to voters because it involves them being paid more money, but actually doesn’t work (something Miliband is clearly sufficiently aware of to stop him pledging to make a living wage mandatory). The coalition already had its own offer in the form of the rise in the

Jonathan Jones

The Autumn Statement in 7 graphs

1. Growth evaporating. The Office for Budget Responsibility once again downgraded its growth forecasts for 2012-13 and, for the first time, also did so for 2014-16. Despite that, the OBR is still slightly more optimistic than the average independent forecaster: 2. A seven year slump. On the OBR forecasts, it will now take until the end of 2014 to get back to where we were before the crash. In the 1930s, it took ‘just’ four years to recover: 3. Slower deficit reduction. The weaker economic outlook means the government will be borrowing more than expected. When George Osborne delivered his first Budget in 2010, the OBR predicted he’d get the

Jonathan Jones

A budget for the squeezed middle

Ed Miliband may have coined the term, but it seems George Osborne has the squeezed middle on his mind too. The overall effect of yesterday’s budget* was to take from the rich, take from the poor and give to the middle. The IFS has crunched the numbers and produced the latest in its series of decile charts: The bottom half of households lose out mainly due to the Chancellor’s decision to increase most working-age benefits by only 1 per cent a year for the next three years, and hence cutting them in real terms. The rich, meanwhile, have been hit mainly by the cut in the tax-free allowance for pension

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The strivers vs scroungers battleground

Welfare will be one of the key battlegrounds at the next general election, and George Osborne’s Welfare Uprating Bill will certainly be one way the Conservative party can prod Labour on what is a hugely awkward policy issue for the party. It accelerates the internal debate about how Labour can appeal to the electorate on the issue of welfare while staying true to its own core beliefs, and, Tory strategists hope, will cause some ructions. While the party appeared united in Manchester at its autumn conference in September, it faces hard times ahead as it tries to answer some of the big questions about what a Labour welfare state would

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

If Britain loses its AAA rating, Osborne will lose one of his key attack lines

George Osborne’s admission that he will not meet his target to have debt as a percentage of GDP falling by 2015/16 has serious consequences for one of his central messages. The Autumn Statement has led credit ratings agency Fitch to warn of a possible downgrade. The agency said: ‘Missing the target weakens the credibility of the fiscal framework, which is one of the factors supporting the rating.’ Ratings agencies aren’t the be-all-and-end-all by any means, and Osborne could quite easily point to just how wrong they were before the crash, giving collateralised debt obligations high ratings. But the problem is that the Chancellor tends to wheel out their approval to

Wednesday

Lloyd Evans

Autumn Statement sketch: Sub-arctic Chancellor warms up the Commons

From our sub-arctic chancellor this was a rip-roaring performance. Using all the arts perfected by Gordon Brown, he dazzled the house with his Autumn Statement. A chancellor should never be entirely candid. His job is to blame others for failure, to take credit for all successes, (no matter what their true origin), to engender confidence in the future and to attract cautious applause. George Osborne did all this. The bad news came out first. There were sharp intakes of breath as he revealed that the economy had shrunk by 6.9 per cent during the credit crunch. And he offered a personal confession which, in accordance with tradition, was masked in

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Autumn Statement: George Osborne moves into a stronger position

There’s a sense of satisfaction among Tories, and Osborne allies in particular, this afternoon. First, the Autumn Statement didn’t all leak out in advance. Instead, the Chancellor had some news to make on the day—notably the cancelling of the 3p fuel duty rise and a further increase in the personal allowance. Second, it has drawn political battle-lines that they believe favour them. Labour now has to decide whether to accept the coalition decision to up-rate most working age benefits by only 1 per cent for the next three years. This saves more than two billion pounds by 2015-16 and will, judging from previous polling on welfare, be popular. But Labour

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Leaked Autumn Statement briefing for Tory MPs focuses on ‘global race’ and spending switch

I’ve been passed the Tory ‘lines to take’ for MPs to use in media interviews for the Autumn Statement today. As I blogged a little earlier, the words ‘global race’ will be cropping up a lot over the next couple of years as a key Conservative phrase, and it looks as though today will be no exception, with the Chancellor using the image in his autumn statement. I note that MPs will also be expected to use it. The lines also focus on the decision to switch revenue to capital spending: ‘Today the Chancellor and Chief Secretary have told Cabinet that they will announce at the Autumn Statement over £5

The Spectator

Autumn statement 2012: as it happened

Key points from the Autumn statement Working-age benefits: will only rise by 1 per cent in each of the next three years rather than by inflation Corporation tax cut: Extra percentage point cut: down to 21 per cent in 2014 compared to 28 per cent when George Osborne took office Income tax threshold: will rise by £235 more than planned, to £9,440 in April 2013, saving basic-rate taxpayers an extra £47 next year Fuel duty: the 3p per litre rise planned for January 2013 has been scrapped Tax-free allowance: Reduction in tax-free allowance on pension contributions: from £50,000 a year to £40,000 and £1.5 million lifetime pot to £1.25 million. Whitehall cuts: Extra cuts in Whitehall budgets

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

George Osborne’s race to persuade voters and colleagues to back his plan

George Osborne has managed, so far, to manage the run-up to the Autumn Statement far better than he did the Budget. There have been no cat fights across the pages of the newspapers, and the briefing over the past few days has been disciplined. After being told about the £5bn of Whitehall spending cuts to fund ‘shovel-ready’ projects including new schools and investment in skills, science and transport yesterday, one hack jokingly asked whether ‘this means that tomorrow’s statement is going to be horrendous’ given the news so far had been relatively positive. Osborne’s stock is up in Westminster at the moment – something James detailed in the magazine last

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

Autumn Statement: What Osborne will say

Lower growth, bigger deficits, targets missed — that’ll be the backdrop to George Osborne’s Autumn Statement tomorrow. So what medicine will he prescribe to make it all better? As usual, many of the policies have been leaked already: More capital spending, paid for by extra cuts elsewhere This was announced by Number 10 this morning: £5 billion extra spending on schools, science and transport over the next three years. That’ll include an extra £1 billion for Michael Gove’s academies and free schools programmes, to provide 50,000 new school places. It’ll all be paid for by extra cuts in departments’ resource budgets: 1 per cent more than planned next year and 2

Jonathan Jones

Autumn Statement: Downgrades R Us

How much trouble is George Osborne in? We don’t need to wait until his mini-Budget tomorrow, we already know most of it. And we’ll enter that peculiar Budget game, where the already-known is restated and treated like news. CoffeeHousers might like to get ahead of the curve. Growth evaporating The Office for Budget Responsibility will have to follow the other economic forecasters and downgrade its growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 (again). The Treasury collects independent forecasts monthly, and here’s how the picture has deteriorated since March: Although the OBR significantly downgraded its forecasts for 2012 and 2013 last year, it hasn’t ever done so for its longer-term forecasts for

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Osborne to back fracking and 30 new gas power stations

Coalition tensions over energy won’t relax with George Osborne’s gas strategy, which he will launch alongside the Autumn Statement tomorrow. The Financial Times reports that the Chancellor’s strategy will approve as many as 30 gas-fired power stations and – in a move that will delight those in his own party – a regulatory regime for shale gas exploitation. Fraser extolled the virtues of shale gas in his Telegraph column in September, describing it as ‘the greatest single opportunity’ facing the government, with the potential to transform energy supply. But Energy Secretary Ed Davey is less enthusiastic, arguing in May that Tory support for shale gas exploitation – known as fracking

Friday

The Spectator

Inside the mind of George Osborne’s newest adviser

Neil O’Brien’s appointment as a new special adviser for George Osborne has gone down very well in the Westminster bubble, partly because of the Policy Exchange director’s ability to look beyond that bubble. He has written a number of times for the Spectator, and as an insight into the man who will be advising the Chancellor, here are some of his key pieces: In this week’s magazine, O’Brien points to the North’s growing detachment from Westminster, with ‘an almighty 83 per cent of northern voters’ believing that politicians do not understand the real world. He writes: ‘Westminster politicians have repeatedly promised to close the North-South gap, but failed because they

James Forsyth James Forsyth

George Osborne hires head of leading centre-right think tank to push through new Tory agenda

George Osborne has recruited Neil O’Brien, the director of the leading centre-right think tank Policy Exchange, as an adviser. O’Brien will start work in the New Year with a particular focus on the next phase of coalition policy development. I also suspect that O’Brien will have a major influence on Tory thinking heading to 2015 and beyond. The Northern Lights report he commissioned at Policy Exchange is regarded in Tory circles as one of the most important assessments of the challenge facing the party in trying to win a majority. I understand that Osborne has been impressed by the work that O’Brien has produced at Policy Exchange. At Policy Exchange,