Egypt

Mubarakism after Mubarak

The future of Egypt has been hanging in the balance since Hosni Mubarak was toppled. Now there is real cause for concern, as scores of protesters clash with state security forces. The problem, above all, is military overreach. Stuck in a 1960s view of itself, and keen to preserve their money, status and power, the military has been thwarting the process of change. Since Mubarak’s fall they have continued behaving how they always have and worse — arresting protesters, muttering about US-led conspiracies, demanding extra-constitutional rights and clamping down on dissent. Worst of all, the West has been all to willing to take them at their word. Especially the Obama

Saif Gaddafi captured — but what now?

Remember when Saif Gaddafi was the Anointed One of those who wanted a freer, more liberal Libya? Now, he’s at the mercy of militiamen in the city of Zintan, having been captured today. It leaves Abdullah al-Senussi, the former intelligence chief, as the most infamous member of the old regime still on the run. The details of the capture are still hazy, like so much else during Libya’s revolution. What’s striking is that, unlike his father, Saif Gaddafi appears to have been unharmed by the process. Reuters are sure they spoke with him earlier today (although the man wouldn’t confirm his identity), and the only wounds he was carrying were,

Do Muslims vote Islamic?

The electoral success of Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda party and the likelihood that the Muslim Brotherhood will do well in Egypt’s forthcoming elections has heightened fears in many quarters. Will Islamic parties always dominate such contests in the Middle East? The electoral success of the Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria, the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and Hamas in Palestine suggest the answer is yes. But looking at a broader data set – that is, the entire range of elections in which Islamic parties have taken part – reveals a different picture. Islamic parties have stood for elections in more than 90 elections in more than 20 countries. But as

Saving Private Shalit

It’s difficult for the outside world to understand the huge significance that Gilad Shalit’s release, this morning, has for Israel. A soldier captured by Hamas five years ago, he has become a huge cause célèbre — to the extent that black cabs in London were even commissioned with his picture on it. Books that he wrote aged 11 were printed and bought in their thousands by Israelis. He was wanted back so badly that Israel has agreed to release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, among them hardcore terrorists. Events stemming from the Arab Spring have made both sides eager to do a deal, which experts say might contribute — even if in

This will Occupy Boris

A few months ago I hosted a debate at my think tank with one of the key Tahrir Square leaders. After his talk about Egypt, he warned the audience: the protests that toppled Hosni Mubarak were not just an Egyptian or Middle Eastern phenomena; it could – and, he said, would – spread to the West. For the youth of today, he argued, feel disempowered, empoverished and betrayed. As protests spread from New York to London and other European capitals, it seems that Egyptian protester may have been right. Today’s efforts to occupy the London stock exchange failed but protesters remain on the grounds of St Paul’s Cathedral. Whatever happens

Where does the Arab Spring leave Israel?

After decades where Arab politicians kept the truth of their constructive relations with Israel hidden from their publics and stoked anti-Semitism and anti-Israel sentiment for domestic purposes, it is no wonder that Israel remains the focus of anger across the Middle East, even after the Arab spring turned attention elsewhere. Last night in Cairo anti-Israeli protests went further than anything seen before, as frustrations with the slowness of the democratic transition and misperceptions about the Egypt-Israeli relationship led demonstrators to attack and torch the Israeli embassy. There will be those who see in Cairo proof that the Arab Spring will unleash nothing but turmoil and conflict. I think it is

Middle East round-up

Reuters is reporting that Libyan rebels have taken control of Libyan state TV – one of the last organs to remain in Gaddafi’s hands. It’s another indication that the dictator’s position is increasingly hopeless; although it appears that one of his sons may have been ‘liberated’ by resurgent loyalist forces. So there’s a glimmer of life in the Mad Dog yet and, plainly, the fanatics will fight to the last bullet, as they promised to do at the outset of NATO’s campaign.  The sudden fixation with Libya has marginalised some other stories in the region. The UN’s Human Rights Commissioner, Ravi Pillay, has revealed that the death toll in Syria has climbed

Tensions rise in the Middle East

The escalating crisis in Gaza and Sinai is worrying. Egypt is to recall its ambassador to Israel after 3 security personnel were killed in confused scuffles after an Israeli bus was bombed near the Sinai border; the Israeli embassy in Cairo has also been the scene of ill-tempered demonstrations and vandalism. Israel denies responsibility for the three deaths. Meanwhile, the Egyptian army is also conducting operations against Islamist militants in the increasingly lawless Sinai desert. Finally, the Arab League has called an emergency meeting after Israel retaliated to 30 rocket attacks by launching stiff operations in Gaza. This latest smattering of violence will be of great concern to friends of

Sickly Mubarak in court

As an accompaniment to the unique photo-history of the Egyptian revolution currently being shown on the Books Blog, here is Channel 4’s latest footage of the invalid Hosni Mubarak being brought to trial. This is a momentous moment in Egypt’s rebirth as a nation, but one denuded of dignity if these images are anything to go by.

The revolution remains on track

The Egyptian revolution has pulled itself back from the brink in a quite an extraordinary way. Everyone feared a clash in Tahrir Square today but, so far, a deal struck between the Muslim Brotherhood, the Salafists, the pro-democracy activists and the military is holding. Tahrir Square is teeming with white-clad Hajis. But everything is calm. The military gave into to a number of key demands from the protesters, including making some changes in the newly-promulgated electoral law. The Muslim Brotherhood feared being blamed by the military for a confrontation and being seen as too close to the Salafists. And the Facebook liberals wanted to keep the revolution united for now.

The threat to the Egyptian revolution

The Egyptian revolution may be in for its greatest challenge yet. Last weekend saw clashes between different groups of protesters, as one group sought to march on the Supreme Military Council. Now Salafists have promised to occupy Tahrir Square on Friday, seeking to turf out the broad-based group of revolutionaries that have occupied the square for a number of weeks. Many people fear a bloodbath. The military, meanwhile, is benefitting from a fracturing of the revolution. Some even see an explicit (if short-term) agreement between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists which will allow the military to push against the liberal Tahrir Square activists. If the Salafists

Egypt votes – on Facebook

While analysts and diplomats are wondering who will win the forthcoming Egyptian presidential election, the military junta (the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces, or SCAF) that runs the country has organised a poll on their Facebook page. More than 200,000 people seem to have taken part. And even accounting for the obvious deficiencies (e.g. the bias towards an unrepresentative, internet-savvy, and liberal electorate) and bearing in mind the near-certainty of fraud given that the SCAF’s FB site is run by military intelligence, the results are interesting nonetheless. Topping the poll is, not unexpectedly, Mohammed El Baradei, the former head of the IAEA, whose internet-connected supporters have put him on

Egypt’s revolution – six months on

I’m back in Cairo to find out where the revolution of 25 January has got to. Nearly six months after Hosni Mubarak’s downfall, the transition from authoritarianism is well under way. There is one immediate difference from my last visit: the absence of army check-points. Police officers in new white suits stand on street corners but the heavy military presence from before has gone. The Cairo police, who were absent after the revolution, have returned in new white uniforms. However, the military – or SCAF, as it styles itself – is very much still in charge, dictating how the democratic process will continue. I remain of the view I articulated

The Arab Spring stalls in Syria

With more than 800 people thought to have died in Syria, the situation is getting more and more serious. President Bashar al-Assad has clearly decided he cannot allow any challenge to his regime and has rejected even the advice of friends like Turkey and Qatar to step back from the brink. The military — principally the loyalist 4th and 5th divisions — has now perfected their anti-protest tactics. People in Hama and Homs are fearing that what was visited upon Deera — where the regime cut off water, electricity and telephones before assaulting the city — will happen to them. Yet, for all this, it would be wrong to think

Obama Men & Bush Measures?

Ross Douthat and Andrew Sullivan have been debating the extent, if any, to which Barack Obama’s foreign policy has broken with his predecessor’s. Ross’s point in his column this week is that Obama’s approach is more consistent with Bush’s than is generally supposed. I think that’s true, though some of Andrew’s criticisms of that view are plausible too. Ross responds here and Andrew has another go here during which post he writes: As for the impact of Obama on the Iranian revolution and the Arab Spring, I agree it’s too facile to draw a direct linkage. History and perspective will again help. But the Cairo speech – defending democracy in

Bin Laden died in Cairo<br />

The world’s most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden, was shot Sunday morning in Pakistan by US special forces. But in reality he had died months ago. On the 25 of January 2011 to be exact. Or that is at least when Bin Laden’s power ended. For on that day millions of protesters — predominantly young Muslims — took to the streets of Cairo and demanded the overthrow of the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and succeeded. With this act, they gave, for the first time since 9/1 and arguably for three decades, the Muslim world a more easily-understood and persuasive narrative than the one of anti-US resistance Al Qaeda

Obama’s Love of Cake

Ryan Lizza’s New Yorker article on the development of Barack Obama’s approach to foreign policy is, as always, full of interestig stuff even if, perhaps unavoidably, I suspect it depends a little too heavily upon the Slaughter-Power approach. Nevertheless, Ryan gets to the heart of Obama’s presidency – or at least the style of it – here: Obama’s instinct was to try to have it both ways. He wanted to position the United States on the side of the protesters: it’s always a good idea, politically, to support brave young men and women risking their lives for freedom, especially when their opponent is an eighty-two-year-old dictator with Swiss bank accounts.

Reasons for optimism in the Middle East | 22 April 2011

As the Libya crisis drags out, and Bashar al-Assad orders a crackdown in Syria, many have begun to doubt whether the changes seen in Tunisia and Egypt will actually spread to the rest of the Middle East. One former British ambassador recently suggested that perhaps the peoples of the Middle East preferred a mixture of authoritarianism and democracy — and that Britain should accept this; not impose its values and views.   But there is plenty of reason for optimism. The first is to look at the countries that have transformed themselves over the course of the last fifty years. Powerhouses like India and Brazil, but also smaller countries such

Is Syria next?

I used to think that Syria was some way off a revolution. The protests were geographically limited; Bashar al-Assad was willing to use Libyan-style violence against them and the West seemed uncharacteristically mute. What’s more, demands for the Syrian president to go were limited. And then there’s the real fear that Syria, made up of so many different sectarian groups, would collapse into a vortex of internecine violence akin to the Lebanese civil war. But these arguments may be losing their weight. The current unrest is the most serious challenge facing Bashar al-Assad and his Alawite regime. And nothing the Syrian dictator has done so far has made a difference.

Cairo Diary: The Brotherhood

Back in Cairo, I try to find answers to what everyone wants to know. Who are the Muslim Brotherhood? What role will the Muslim Brotherhood play in the future? Even to seasoned observers it seems hard to divine. Their support in the country has never been tested and the constitutional referendum, where the brotherhood was on the winning side, is a poor proxy. What is clear, however, is that they have the organisational muscle the post-Tahrir Square parties lack. And that they are willing to play a long game, rejecting a shot at the presidency for example for fear of a backlash against them. Though some members talk of Turkey’s