Barack obama

Saturday

Jonathan Jones

Democrats ready to face Romney

As James said yesterday, Mitt Romney is well on the way to becoming the Republican nominee. He is virtually certain to win New Hampshire on Tuesday – Nate Silver’s projections give him a 99 per cent chance of victory – and he’s odds on in South Carolina and Florida too, which would give him a clean sweep of the January primaries. It’s not the outcome Team Obama were hoping for – they’d have had a much easier ride against just about any of the other candidates (save perhaps Jon Huntsman) – but it is the one they were expecting. As a result, they’re ready for him, and Romney’s already been the focus

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Romney by eight votes

Instead of white smoke, Iowa is belching thick fog. Mitt Romney has won by, erm, eight votes. At least so we think, the Republicans say that it has to wait until ‘Certified Form E’ will be returned by all the Iowa counties, which will take two weeks, so this gossamer majority may well vanish. Already some votes have been lost, others miscounted, so I doubt Romney will be doing much of a victory dance today. Iowa’s indecision is final. He has won by a majority of 0.0065 percentage points. It’s pretty good for the man who almost beat him, Rick Santorum, who won 30,007 votes to Romney’s 30,015. And Santorum

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Goading in the Gulf

The year has begun with Iran and the United States circling each other in the Straits of Hormuz; like two boxers before a bout, seeing who will strike first and working out where a blow could land. The immediate cause has been Iranian manoeuvres in the Arabian Gulf, and a visit to the area by the American aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis. Iran’s army chief has said that his country will take action if a US aircraft carrier returns to the Gulf. Oil prices have shot up as a result. This could be the worst time to goad a Democratic president facing pressure from those Republicans currently trying ‘out

Sunday

Clarissa Tan

Happy New Year from world leaders

It’s the New Year — a time when politicians all over the globe get on their soapboxes and preach to their people. From Merkel’s pledge to do everything for the euro, to North Korea’s vow to defend their new leader unto death, to Putin’s speech laden with sexual innuendo, here’s a selection of this year’s messages from world leaders: Barack Obama: ‘I promise to do everything I can to make America a place where hard work and responsibility are rewarded, one where everyone has a fair shot and everyone does their fair share. That’s the America I believe in.’ Angela Merkel: ‘Today, you can trust that I will do everything

Friday

Daniel Korski

Will Israel bomb a near-nuclear Iran in 2012?

An Israeli strike on Iran has to be the most over-predicted event of recent years. It was meant to happen last year. And the year before that. But now there are reasons why 2012 could, indeed, be the year when Israel will find it propitious to take overt military action against Iran’s nuclear programme. (Everyone assumes that a range of covert activities, from assassinations to cyber attacks, are already ongoing). The Iranian government is moving closer to having the requisite capabilities, and can reasonably be expected to take the final steps towards nuclearisation. What better way for Tehran to distract attention from their burgeoning problems — including sanctions, economic hardship,

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Saint Obama? Not quite…

Will 2012 be a good year for Barack Obama? His job approval ratings reached a six-month high this week on the back of news that had he had secured a payroll tax cut for American workers. He’s also benefitting from the conclusion of the Iraq war and the fact that, with next week’s Iowa caucuses fast approaching, his Republican opponents look hopeless. Obama’s populist re-election message, in which he says, in effect, that he is the good guy and it is only the filthy Republicans and the corrupt Washington system holding him back, seems to be working. But should it? In this week’s Spectator, I ask whether the Obama administration

Monday

Daniel Korski

Stopping Maliki’s coup

The year is ending not with a successful US withdrawal from Iraq — as President Barack Obama claims — but with what amounts to a coup d’etat by the country’s Shiite prime minister (and former ally of the US) Nouri al-Maliki. Less than 24 hours after the last US soldier left Iraq, the country’s Sunni vice-president Tareq al-Hashemi was wanted on charges that he led death squads, in a case most observers think could reignite the sectarian slaughter of 2006-07. Violence in Iraq has subsided since 2006-07, when Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen killed thousands of civilians each month — but, without U.S. troops to act as a buffer, many

Thursday

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Four weeks to Iowa, and Newt’s looking strong

It’s less than a month until the Iowa caucuses, the first big vote of the presidential primaries. It could finish off some candidates who’ve been shuffled to the bottom of the pack, and give us a better idea of the chances of those at the top.   Right now, Newt Gingrich looks most likely to be celebrating on January 3rd. As Fraser suggested last weekend, he seems to be gaining most from Herman Cain’s withdrawal, and now leads the field both nationally and in Iowa. An average of the five polls from the past week, and reallocating Cain’s voters to their second choice candidate, reveals an 11-point lead for Gingrich:  

Monday

Fraser Nelson

The New York Times’ austerity myth

Yet again, the New York Times fact-checkers seem to have taken the day off. The newspaper yesterday printed an editorial about British economic policy which contained basic errors – identical to those made in a blog which Paul Krugman bashed out last week. It’s worth fisking a little, because Krugman appears to be using the newspaper to create an austerity myth. ‘A year and a half ago, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain came to office promising to slash deficits and energize economic growth through radical fiscal austerity. It failed dismally.’ This is right, insofar as there was no austerity. The below shows current spending, for every month since the

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

Republicans use Obama’s own words against him

Mitt Romney, the clear favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination, has released the first television ad of his 2012 campaign. Even though his immediate battle is against fellow Republicans – in the latest CNN poll, he trails Newt Gingrich by four points – here Romney’s attack is aimed squarely at Obama. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3a7FC0Jkv8 The Obama campaign has pushed back, particularly against the clip of Obama saying ‘If we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose’, calling it ‘deceitful and dishonest’. You see, when Obama said that, in 2008, he was quoting John McCain’s campaign and criticising them for it. Here’s a fuller extract of Obama using that line:

Wednesday

Jonathan Jones

Democrats’ strong results bolster Obama’s hopes

Things haven’t been looking particularly good for the Obama 2012 campaign of late. Half the country disapproves of his performance so far, the economy’s very weak and Mitt Romney’s grip on the Republican nomination is tightening. And the last two sets of November elections have seen the electorate move towards the Republicans. In 2009, they took over the governorships Virgnia and New Jersey. Last year, they won control of House of Representatives and increased their numbers of Senators and Governors. But this year, the story’s different: Democrats scored some important wins yesterday, making their prospects for 2012 that bit brighter. Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear won re-election by a 20-point margin;

Wednesday

Daniel Korski

Saudi and Iran at each others’ throats

Yesterday — as Pete pointed out earlier — the Obama administration filed criminal charges against two individuals, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, claiming that they worked with Mexican criminals and for the Iranian government on orders to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. The plot has met with denials from Tehran, which “categorically and in the strongest terms condemn this shameful allegation.”     But, if true, the plot would only be the latest in a long-standing feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The struggle between Riyadh and Tehran has become the Middle East’s central conflict, overshadowing even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The countries are divided by a Shiite-Sunni

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

Palin and Rubio say no to 2012 bids

It’s been quite a week for Republicans deciding they’re not interested in entering the White House in 2013. First, Christie closed the door on a presidential bid on Tuesday. Last night, Sarah Palin followed suit, saying: “After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States… My decision is based upon a review of what common sense Conservatives and Independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

Christie staying out of 2012 race

The broad narrative of the Republican primaries has essentially been “the search for an alternative to Mitt Romney”. And that search looks set to continue with another potential candidate, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, set against running for president. Romney has been the favourite to win the nomination pretty much since the 2008 election. But he does not generate much enthusiasm among the Republican base: only 14 per cent of Republicans have a “strongly favourable” view of him (according to Gallup) and he’s polling at just 24 per cent: pretty low for such a well-known frontrunner. As a result, many in the Grand Old Party have been looking elsewhere. This has

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Yesterday’s big speech

I suspect that the most important political speech delivered yesterday was not Ed Miliband’s address to Labour conference, but Chris Christie’s one at the Reagan Library in California. The governor of New Jersey is coming under mounting pressure from the Republican establishment to run for president; they view him as the party’s best chance of capitalising on President Obama’s electoral vulnerability. This speech was striking for its political dexterity. It is not a base-pleasing red-meat speech, but rather one designed to reach out to those who voted for Obama last time; those who grown disillusioned by how he has governed. Perhaps, the most effective part of it came when he

Monday

Fraser Nelson

New Balls?

Given that Ed Balls’ strategy has backfired on his party so far, with Labour ten points behind the Tories on economic credibility, something has to change. Either the policies, or the shadow chancellor. Read between the lines of Balls’ speech today, and you can see a man backtracking – and trying to hold on to his job. Even when Balls tells porkies, he does so with imagination and élan. He is always worth listening to. He had the 8.10am slot on Today this morning. Here’s what jumped out at me: 1) Mea Culpa, kinda. The other day in the Commons, Balls said sorry – you could tell then that it’s

Saturday

Clarissa Tan

Obama’s new best buddy – Warren Buffett

The politics of ‘get the rich’ is going global and even the rich are joining in. While few countries have adopted the equivalent of Britain’s 50p tax, many are baring their teeth at the very well-off. In America, this is now being done by an unlikely alliance between Barack Obama and Warren Buffet. The billionaire investor is allowing his name to be appended to Barack Obama’s new tax-the-rich-more policy, which apparently follows the ‘Buffett Rule’. The Buffett Rule, which draws its basic principle from an op-ed Buffett wrote for the New York Times, is this: people making more than $1 million a year should pay a tax rate that’s at

Friday

James Forsyth

Preparing for the US Presidential election

One thing British politics has yet to rise up to is how possible it is that Barack Obama might lose next year. All the pollsters have his approval rating in negative territory, Gallup has him down by ten, and the American economy looks likely to deteriorate between now and November 2012. But the big thing in Obama’s favour is the weakness of the Republican field. Bill Kristol’s cry of pain about the quality on show in last night’s primary debate sums up Republican establishment worries that none of the candidates cut it. We can now expect another push to get a new candidate into the race. Chris Christie, the governor

Friday

Daniel Korski

The Israel Palestine question

After a hiatus, the Middle East Peace Process is about to return to the international stage. The Palestinians are pushing at the UN for recognition. Nobody knows yet what they will actually ask for: full statehood or just upgrading their UN status to “non-member”. But, whatever the language of the resolution, the issue will be contentious. By some estimates, 126 states are poised to back the Palestinian request, including France, India, Brazil, Spain. The US will not support a Palestinian move, nor is Germany likely to. Britain remains undecided, hoping to help the Palestinians draft a resolution that other Europeans can sign up to. It’s not clear what Britain and