How the Tory party will react if, as excepted, Ukip pushes the party into third place in the European elections is one of the most discussed topics in UK politics. But overlooked in all this is how Labour will react if Farage’s party beats them on May 22nd.

If Ukip come top in the European Elections, as the polls indicate they have a very good chance of doing, Labour will be thrown into a panic. No opposition has ever triumphed at a general election having not won the previous European Elections. A failure in the European Elections would be a big blow to the idea that Ed Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister.

Already, influential members of the shadow Cabinet are grumbling about how the leadership hasn’t taken these elections seriously enough. As I report in the Mail on Sunday today, there’s a lot of grumbling about how Labour’s campaign team were off in the States last week rather than here, preparing for this contest.

If Ukip do beat Labour and the Tories keep their nerve, two big ifs, then Cameron could emerge relatively unscathed from the Farage earthquake.

Tags: 2014 European Elections, Conservatives, David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Labour, Nigel Farage, UK politics, UKIP