Welcome to the Spectator’s liveblog of the European elections results. We’ll bring you results, analysis and political reaction throughout the night.

  • Britain: Ukip has come first with 27 per cent of vote (so far), the Tories did reasonably (on 24 per cent, a whisker from Labour’s 25.4 per cent) and Lib Dems are in free fall, losing 9 of their 12 MEPs.
  • Scotland: UKIP has won its first Scottish seat, with a 10 per cent vote share. This has infuriated Alex Salmond whose SNP has seen its share of the vote fall slightly.
  • Europe’s populists triumph : Marine le Pen’s Front Nationale came top in France, with a predicted 25 per cent share. The populist Danish People’s Party, led by a 33-year-old, has come first there. In Greece, the far-left Syriza picked up 27 per cent and the far-right Golden Dawn 9 per cent. Five Star in Italy won 21.5 per cent of the vote. Germany’s Neo-Nazi NPD looks to have won a seat, but with 1 per cent of vote.
  • In Europe: The EPP looks set to retain its dominance in the European Parliament, but with fewer seats. Most established groups look like they have lost to the ‘others’.

02:00: James Forsyth on what we can expect to see from Labour in the near future:

James_Forsyth-60x84We have become used to talking about ‘class war’ in the Tory party, the tensions between David Cameron and his Old Etonian dominated inner circle and those MPs with grittier backgrounds. But we are about to see Labour’s version of this story.

Many Labour MPs feel that Ukip is eating into the Labour vote in its heartlands because the party doesn’t have people in top positions who can speak to the party’s traditional working class supporters. There are already grumblings that the shadow Cabinet is too dominated by Oxford PPE graduates who live in large houses in London.

There is some truth to the charge that the shadow Cabinet is disconnected from Labour’s traditional support base in the country. It is hard to think of who is the John Prescott or David Blunkett of Miliband’s team. Expect to see increasingly vocal demands for working class MPs to be given more prominent roles by the leadership.

0110: Fraser Nelson in the SNP’s success in Scotland:

Fraser_Nelson-60x84So the SNP has (again) come first in Scotland, and UKIP will come first in England. This is more significant than you might expect. We can expect Alex Salmond’s nationalists to use this as ground for divorce – saying it proves how different Scotland is from England, separate political cultures etc. I really hope my English journalistic colleagues don’t buy this analysis. Ukip and the SNP are both riding the populist wave sweeping Europe tonight.

The reason that Ukip did relatively poorly in Scotland because there was another party shouting “I want my country back!” and denouncing the “Westminster establishment”. That said, Ukip took 10 per cent of the Scottish vote, and is the only party to have gained a Euro seat in Scotland tonight. Not a bad result. But the SNP are on 29 per cent so Salmond has his narrative. The gap in the Ukip vote on either side of the border means that Scotland is too virtuous and open-minded for Farage’s bigotry – and as for England? Well fellow Scots, draw your own conclusions.

Alex Salmond has banged on about Ukip and its “appalling politics of intolerance” non-stop during his campaign. This may strike you as odd: Ukip has hardly any footprint in Scotland, finishing 6th last time, so what was Salmond up to? Why all the focus on Farage? The answer, of course, is that Salmond is thinking only about his independence referendum – and sees tonight’s results as a chance to portray England’s politics as being selfish and intolerant, in contrast from virtuous Scotland. To suggest that England is Ukip and Ukip is England.

I loathe this tactic because it has, at its heart, an attempt to portray English people as somehow lacking the tolerance that Salmond attributes to Scots. There has been plenty of such ugly politics about, all over Europe, during this election. I suspect that we’ll see a bit more of it in Britain as the referendum draws closer.

0100: Conservatives are greatly excited about the following from YouGov’s Peter Kelner on the BBC:

Peter Kelner: I think it’s worth looking at it not only in terms of Conservative and Labour, but Government and Opposition. Five years ago, Labour was in government – it got 16% of the vote. Today the Conservatives are leading the Government – they are on 24%. So compared with government to government, they are up. The Conservatives were in opposition 5 years ago, they got 28%. Labour is in opposition now – 24%. So in government/opposition terms, Government up eight, Opposition down four. That, if nothing else, should terrify Labour.

David Dimbleby: Do you have any explanation? It’s all very well to talk about the two sticks, but you are an interpreter of these things as well.

Peter Kelner: There are two things that Labour has failed to do under Ed Miliband’s leadership. Firstly, to establish Ed Miliband as a plausible prime minister. He is consistently a long way behind David Cameron when you ask people ‘Who would make the best prime minster?’, David Cameron is always ahead. Then when people ask who you trust more on the economy, the Conservatives are well ahead. In the past, there have been parties that have won the general election being behind on the leader or being behind on the economy. I know of no election when a party that has won the election has been behind on both leadership and the economy.

0015: Daniel Hannan has told Sky News that David Cameron should form a pact with Ukip at the general election.

2355: According to SvD, the estimated turnout is similar to 2009: