It’s by-election time once more. In just over three weeks, the voters of Wythenshawe and Sale East in Greater Manchester will head to the polls on the 13 February to decide who will replace Paul Goggins, the Labour MP who died suddenly earlier this month.

By-elections are often thought to be a useful barometer of how the country is feeling, but in reality they are mostly fought on hyperlocal issues. This one will no doubt be watched closely given the rapidly approaching Euro elections in May. The Tories and Lib Dems are unlikely to do well in either battles, while Ukip and Labour will be going head-to-head in both instances.

Who’s going to win in W&SE?
Most likely Labour. They’ve held the seat comfortably since it was created in 1997 and none of the other parties have come close to challenging them. In 2010, Goggins won Wythenshawe and Sale East with a 7,000+ majority: