12am: The word from the count is the Liberal Democrats have held Eastleigh. Intriguingly, the Liberal Democrats think UKIP have taken second. Labour appear set for a poor fourth.

If the Tories have come third with the Lib Dems holding the seat, David Cameron’s Tory critics will have a field-day tomorrow.

12.20am A source at the count tells Coffee House that UKIP appear to have won more votes today than any other party. But the Liberal Democrats will win thanks to their huge lead on postal votes

12.50am Tim Farron is trying to play down expectations. But revealingly he says that a Lib Dem win would be a game changer and boost their Budget bargaining power.

1am Sense from Eastleigh is that the Lib Dem majority tonight will be in the thousands not hundreds

1.10am Tories suggesting they might well still be second

1.45am Word from Eastleigh is a Lib Dem majority of close to 3,000 with UKIP beating the Tories for second by around 700 votes

2am Tories now seem to be accepting they are a thrd and by about a thousand votes

2.10 Those at the count speculating that the final numbers will be Lib Dems 32%, UKIP 28%, Tories 25%, and Labour 10%. If so, that’s a bad result for Cameron and Miliband

2.20am It’s official: Lib Dems hold, UKIP 2nd, Tories 3rd and Labour 4th
Liberal Democrats 13342
UKIP 11571
Tories 10559
Labour 40888

Tags: Coalition, Conservatives, David Cameron, Eastleigh, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UK politics, UKIP